The head of the Polish government Mateusz Moravecki believes that the question of deploying medium-range missiles with nuclear warheads in Europe should be discussed and resolved within the framework of NATO. Previously, this type of weapon was banned by the terms of the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty), which ceased to exist after the United States withdrew from it.
“The issue of deploying medium-range missiles with nuclear warheads in Europe should be discussed and resolved within NATO,” Moravecki said in an interview with the German newspaper Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung (WAZ).
Thus, the Polish prime minister did not virtually exclude the possibility of deploying such missiles on the European continent, although immediately after the US exited the INF Treaty, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the alliance had no such plans.
- Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Moravecki
- Reuters
- © Eva Plevier
“We do not intend to deploy new ground-based nuclear missiles in Europe,” Stoltenberg said at a briefing in Brussels on August 2 in connection with the termination of the INF Treaty after the US withdrawal from it. At the same time, the head of the alliance added that NATO "does not want a new arms race."
In turn, answering WAZ questions, Moravecki hastened to justify the American withdrawal from the agreement, again blaming Russia for allegedly non-compliance with the INF Treaty. However, he spoke out in favor of concluding a new treaty with the participation of China.
“We should try to conclude a new disarmament treaty that would include China. “Not only Moscow, but also Beijing poses a threat to the free world,” the head of the Polish government added.
“The issue has long been resolved”
Recall that the United States withdrew from the INF Treaty on August 2, 2019, substantiating this step as allegedly a violation of the agreement on the part of Russia when creating the 9M729 missile. Washington claims that its flight range exceeds 500 km, which was prohibited by the agreement.
Moscow rejected the accusations against itself, noting that the characteristics of these systems meet all the requirements of the INF Treaty, while the Moscow Region organized a special briefing during which it revealed the missile performance characteristics. However, the United States and most of the allies ignored this event. At the same time, Russia, in turn, indicated that the United States itself was violating the agreement, since the design features of the American Mk 41 launchers located in Romania and planned for deployment in Poland, which are part of missile defense systems, make it possible to use them, including to launch cruise missiles, which was a violation of the provisions of the agreement, when he was still in force.
The fears of the Russian side were confirmed when the Americans tested a ground-based Tomahawk cruise missile on August 18, during which the Mk 41 was used as a launcher.
According to Konstantin Voronov, Head of the Department of Regional Problems and Conflicts of the Department of European Political Studies, IMEMO RAS, the issue of deploying such missiles in Europe has already been resolved, despite statements to the contrary.
“This issue has long been resolved. The statement by the Polish Prime Minister is simply an inflating of ambition, because Warsaw will not determine where, when and in what form the Pentagon will deploy nuclear weapons on the continent with the permission of the White House. The final and most important word for the United States in this matter, ”he said.
At the same time, Konstantin Blokhin, a researcher at the Center for Euro-Atlantic and Defense Studies at RISI, noted that the countries in which the United States will deploy Mk 41 will not even know which missiles are in the installation.
- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
- Reuters
- © Francois Walschaerts
“So far, no rockets have been installed in Europe. However, it is already difficult to verify whether they are in the Mk 41 installations, which can be used both as a missile defense system and as an attack system. In addition, the European leaders in whose countries these missiles will be deployed will not know if they are there or not, therefore an arms control treaty is needed, ”Blokhin said.
Will not be able to interfere
In recent years, the Polish leadership has been actively encouraging the United States to expand its military presence in its territory. In particular, negotiations are ongoing at the level of the governments of the two countries to increase the American contingent already stationed there.
In mid-August, the possibility of relocating the US military stationed in the Federal Republic of Germany to Polish territory was actively discussed in Germany and Poland. The reason for such conversations was given by the US ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, who threatened Berlin that the Pentagon could withdraw part of its military from Germany and transfer them to Poland. He explained this measure by the reluctance of the Germans to increase defense allocations to 2% of GDP, as required by the NATO charter.
At the same time, the US ambassador to Poland, Georgette Mosbacher, said that she would "welcome if American troops from Germany came to Poland."
Experts believe that Poland is one of the likely locations for American nuclear missiles in Europe. According to Voronov, if Washington and Warsaw agree on such a step, then other NATO members or the European Union will not be able to prevent them from doing this.
“With the mutual desire of Washington and Warsaw to deploy such missiles in Poland, the remaining members of NATO or the EU will not be able to block such a decision. In its own territory, the word Warsaw will have weight, but in other cases it will not, because in the American decision-making system, allies or partners do not have a decisive vote, ”the expert said.
A similar point of view was expressed by Konstantin Blokhin.
“At NATO, the chief conductor and chief architect is the United States. If even during the years of the Cold War, when there was a strong anti-war movement, which was accompanied by protests, the Americans installed these missiles anyway, now the rest of the members of the North Atlantic Alliance are unlikely to be able to block such a decision. European countries may try to oppose him, but the Americans are unlikely to stop, ”he said, adding that a split within Europe itself prevents the resolution of this issue through negotiations.
“This issue can be resolved through negotiations, but in this case, Europe is split: the opinions of Poland and Romania, who are ready to go in the wake of US foreign policy, are different from the views of France and Germany, which categorically do not want such a perspective,” Blokhin said.
According to the analyst, the statements of Moravecki indicate that Poland has actually already begun to bargain with the United States on the deployment of missiles with nuclear warheads on its territory.
“Warsaw felt that Washington is now extremely interested in deploying medium-range missiles and that it and Romania are one of the few countries that agree to deploy these missiles on its territory. Poland is now strengthening its negotiating position so that the US meets it on issues that concern the Poles, for example, on creating an American base on their territory that the Americans themselves would pay for, ”the expert said in an interview with RT.
Threat to stability
Experts agree that the appearance of US nuclear missiles in Europe will undermine the foundations of European security.
“Such a move threatens to increase tension and will push us to the arms race. The actions of Washington and NATO will not remain unanswered, as Russia at the highest level will take symmetrical retaliatory measures, ”said Konstantin Voronov.
In turn, Blokhin pointed out that American nuclear missiles in Europe will strengthen Brussels' dependence on Washington.
“This threatens a new round of the arms race, a blow to strategic stability and the loss of arms control. If these missiles are installed in Europe, then European countries will become hostages of Russian-American relations, so the United States will blackmail them with the risk of unleashing a large-scale war, ”he said.
- Launch of the Tomahawk MK41 missile on the American destroyer DDG-104 Sterett
- © US Navy / Wikipedia
According to the expert, this is how Washington wants to strengthen its position in negotiations on all issues of world politics.
"The Americans do not want to start a war, they want to have leverage over both their allies, who are not always disciplined, like Germany and France, and make Russia more accommodating," the analyst explained.
Mirror Answer
According to Blokhin, in the context of the termination of the INF Treaty, Russia will develop its own weapons systems, but will not be the first to deploy such missiles.
“Russia will create the ground type Caliber cruise missiles, as well as develop and improve a whole class of hypersonic weapons. In these conditions, Moscow will not install missiles first, it will save space for negotiations, ”he said.
Earlier, Russia did not intend to be the first to deploy medium- and shorter-range missiles, the Russian leadership said. After the termination of the INF Treaty, Russia imposed a moratorium on the deployment of such weapons, but this ban will only apply until the United States is the first to deploy such weapons.
“We still leave the door open, we are committed to the fact that until such systems appear in Europe, we will not do anything there. And we won’t have (systems. - RT ) until they appear in the Asia-Pacific region, ”Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in an interview with Russia 24 on August 18.
If the US begins to deploy its missiles in Europe or Asia, Russia will take retaliatory measures. Moreover, not only the missile launchers themselves will be at gunpoint, said Blokhin.
“If these missiles appear near the borders of the Russian Federation and pose a direct threat to national security, then the answer will be a mirror. And Russia will answer at decision centers, ”the expert concluded.