Concern over US-China trade Symposium voice of concern August 23, 12:15

Amid the slowdown in interest rates due to the slowdown in the global economy, a symposium attended by executives from central banks in each country began in Jackson Hole, a summer resort in the United States. There is a voice that is worried about

This symposium is held every year in Jackson Hole, a summer resort in the US state of Wyoming. The symposium began on the 22nd with the participation of senior central bank executives and prominent economists.

Regarding the global economy, the slowdown of the Chinese economy has become clear due to the escalating trade friction between the United States and China, and the slowdown trend of the European economy has further strengthened, such as Germany falling into negative growth.

Professor Shiverson of the University of Chicago attending the meeting told NHK's interview: “While the global economy depends on the worsening trade war between the United States and China, there is no sign of any immediate improvement. The manufacturing industry is also starting to slow down and I am very concerned. ”

Against the backdrop of the slowdown in the global economy, let's avoid a rise in the value of one's own currency, which is disadvantageous for export among the central banks of each country, including the first rate cut in the United States last month for about 10 and a half years. There has been a series of moves to reduce interest rates.

On the evening of the 23rd of Japan time, the President of the Federal Reserve, FRB, the central bank of the United States, will speak, and interest is rising on what to say about the additional rate cut.

What is the Jackson Hole meeting?

This symposium has been held every summer since 1978 in Jackson Hole, a summer resort in Wyoming.

Sponsored by the Kansas City Fed, one of the US regional federations, the center will gather executives, prominent economists, and government officials from each country to discuss issues facing the global economy through lectures and discussions.

The remarks made by the key people often generated a big reaction in the market, so the media from various countries gathered and tentatively gathered for coverage and reporting such as setting up tents outdoors.

At the meeting in August 2010, Chairman Bernanke of the then FRB made remarks suggesting additional monetary easing, and in August 2014 President Draghi of the European Central Bank suggested further monetary easing.

Market officials see the Jackson Hole symposium as an important message for future monetary policy, and interest in the speech by Chairman Powell of the FRB is growing.

World debt of 1K 9000 trillion yen

Global debt has increased significantly as a result of the large amount of money supplied by major monetary easing measures followed by the world's major central banks following the Lehman shock, making it easier to borrow money.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, which the central bank of each country is a member of, the balance of debts of private companies, governments and households, excluding financial institutions, reached 180 trillion dollars in the world last year, and 1 yen 9000 trillion yen in Japan. Did. This is 1.6 times that of 2007 before the Lehman shock.

In emerging countries in particular, debt has accumulated rapidly, and last year's debt balance was $ 54 trillion, expanding 3.2 times that of 2007.
China, which occupies the center, is more than six times before the Lehman shock.

Regarding this situation, Hidetoshi Honda, Senior Strategist, Mizuho Bank's European Finance Department, said, “Debt will not continue to grow, and there will be a point where it will collapse at some point. There is a possibility that the number of people who are unable to return their accumulated debt will increase. "

“The central banks in each country will recognize that the money that has been disseminated for the economic recovery may create a new bubble. The central bank is in a very difficult environment for tightrope walking, and how to balance it. ”