Develop a new model to predict strongly the paths of hurricanes

Mohammad ALHADDAD

Researchers at the Pennsylvania Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Forecasting Technologies have developed a new way to predict the intensity and trajectory of Hurricane Harvey, according to a new study published in the Journal of the American Metrological Society on August 15 by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania and management. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Sciences.

Methodology of all heaven
The new study comes against the backdrop of more rigorous studies of Hurricane Harvey, which researchers had previously predicted in 2017 to be a Category 1 hurricane, but it turned into a severe Category 4 storm.

The new method relied on data from the GOES-16 satellite, along with Pennsylvania's celestial radiation data called the All Sky methodology, which provided a more accurate model for the study of Hurricane Harvey. This data collection method is named "All Sky" because it captures data in all weather conditions including clouds and rain.

The current study is the first research based on the use of satellite data "GOES-16" to predict hurricanes. Harvey was the first devastating hurricane picked up by GOES-16 in 2017.

The authors of the study, in the press release attached to them, that the results are still in the test, although it proved that we can improve the course, location, intensity and structure of Hurricane Harvey. But researchers stress the need to study all other hurricane events with new space data.

The study suggests that the process of creating operational models and monitoring hurricanes and weather events often takes many years. The process usually begins with “post-prediction” models of the experiment on phenomena that have already occurred prior to testing those models on future phenomena, along with existing models, to see if there has been any improvement in monitoring.

The operation of the "All Heaven" model was accompanied by another model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research with the help of members of the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences in Pennsylvania.

When the model was run for 24 hours, the researchers found that the higher the intensity of clouds, the more clear and easily the sky radiation data in the study, which in turn improves the degree of prediction to be more accurate for the storm itself, and the consequences.