The majority of the government's budget is already underwritten by the 73-point program negotiated between the government and the Center Party and the Liberals.

These include delayed income tax on income exceeding SEK 690,000 per year, more money for municipalities, tax deductions for companies that employ new arrivals and reduced tax for pensioners.

But the budget, which is currently being negotiated between the four parties, will also include some other measures. The Liberals, for example, require further investment in the judiciary.

25 billion reforms

In mid-September, the budget is presented and given the parliamentary situation, it will in all likelihood be voted through Parliament.

When the Finance Minister on Thursday held a press conference at Harpsund, she summed up reforms in the budget to around SEK 25 billion.

Far too little, think many economists who want to see much bigger investments. Swedbank talks about unfunded investments of SEK 70 billion, while LO wants to multiply investments in municipalities.

However, Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson is not prepared to attend them. Should the economy turn down steeply, the government will act, she says. In such a situation, Sweden's low indebtedness is a strength. Government debt has not been so low since the 1970s, which creates opportunities to act in a crisis situation.

Powerful oscillations make up for it

Although the government flags for bad times, the finance minister believes in a slowdown. However, she does not rule out that the decline will be significantly steeper. There is great uncertainty about where the Swedish economy is heading.

Making financial forecasts is difficult. It is even more difficult in the case of heavy swings up or down. Swedish finance ministers have experienced this many times before. The forecasters find it difficult to capture the power of a rise, but also of a downturn. We have seen it several times before, for example in connection with the crises of 1992 and 2008.

In the economic forecast presented today, the government estimates that growth this year will be 1.4 percent. This is a relatively weak economic growth, which the government did not think was going at all one year ago.

When the finance minister stood on Harpsund's stairs in August last year, she estimated that growth this year would be 2.1 percent. Since then, the forecast has been revised down to 1.4 per cent.

Brexit and trade war concerns

It is therefore an uncertain forecast that is presented today, not least because of the difficulty in assessing a decline.

Risks to the Swedish economy have also increased. The effects of a hard Brexit are such a risk. The US-China trade war is another. The US-Iran conflict in the Hormuz Strait, where a significant portion of the world's oil supplies are passing through, is a third factor that could affect the world economy and thus Sweden.

But also in the Swedish economy there are risks, which can also be affected by international developments. One such factor is the still high indebtedness of households. At the same time, the economy is deteriorating in many Swedish municipalities.

Can be difficult to get together

In the long term, there are also major challenges. Until 2026, investments in welfare of SEK 90 billion are needed, according to the Minister of Finance.

But the problem is not just about scrapping resources. Growing difficulties in recruiting staff for welfare are likely to make this equation even more difficult to put together.