Donald Trump insisted Tuesday: the United States do not have to fear a recession - which would be potentially disastrous in the light of his reelection in 2020. But the elected Republican has suggested that he was preparing, in case , to this eventuality.
"The word + recession + is inappropriate," the US president told reporters at the White House. "We are very far from a recession," he said.
While his popularity rating is below 50% and the latest polls show him beaten by a Democrat in the next presidential election, Donald Trump is convinced that his reelection depends on the strength of the US economy, which he does not stop boasting good health.
Growth has been on the agenda for a decade now, and Barack Obama's successor gives it all credit, often citing the lowest unemployment rate in almost 50 years and the "most dynamic" economy in the world. planet.
But he avoids talking bad news, such as the alarm signal issued by the financial markets last week.
US 10-year Treasury yields have fallen short of two-year bonds-the opposite of what is expected to happen.
This "inverse of the yield curve" is a statistical phenomenon which in the past has been the precursor of a recession.
Add to this the growing fears of the fallout from the Sino-US trade war, Germany's warnings of a slowdown and the British chaos around Brexit, and then the big word "Recession" is back in the conversation. .
Except for Donald Trump.
The Republican billionaire claims that there can be no economic downturn.
Earlier on Tuesday, he tweeted or retweeted more than a dozen people boasting about the strength of the world's leading power economy.
"Trump makes this economy vibrate like a well-oiled engine," he wrote in one of these tweets.
Advisers to the former real estate mogul also flooded the media with interviews in which they hammered the same message.
"Do not be afraid to be optimistic!" Said Sunday Larry Kudlow, who has the president's ear at the White House.
- Game of reproaches -
Donald Trump, however, seems worried. He already finds people to blame for this recession that, he says, will not happen.
Its number one target is the Federal Reserve (Fed), which it attacks, breaking with all the traditions, for months because of the reluctance of the Central Bank to lower interest rates.
Last week, he treated his boss Jerome Powell as "incompetent".
His scapegoat number two is the American media, accused by the president and his associates of wanting to deliberately stir fears of recession.
Their goal? Handicap, in turn, the record of the Republican.
"They are highlighting the lie of the recession.The fact is that many leftist people want these horrible things to come true," White House deputy spokesman Hogan Gidley told Fox News on Tuesday.
- Tax reduction -
According to the survey of a professional group of economists, a large majority of economists (72%) think that there will be an economic slowdown before the end of 2021.
Half of forecasters surveyed by the NABE (National Association for Business Economists) even predict a recession in 2020.
Senior White House officials are therefore reflecting on several measures to stimulate the economy, including temporarily reducing payroll taxes to increase the pay of workers.
"We are thinking about it," Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday.
"He's considering new tax cuts," Hogan Gidley had previously acknowledged.
According to the New York Times, the imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration on Chinese goods is also under consideration.
The White House tenant said on Tuesday he was "not ready to make an agreement" with China. "We are winning!", He still hammered.
© 2019 AFP