These are the signs of a global economic crisis

The shadow of a new economic crisis has returned since the beginning of August, and severe shocks have hit the markets since Wall Street witnessed its largest decline since the beginning of the year on the 14th of this month, reaching 3% in a session. one.

The writer Martin Orange said that since the beginning of August, the possibility of a new global economic crisis is on the horizon, due to a series of events beginning with tension between the United States and China and the global economic slowdown, and does not end in currencies and financial markets.

She pointed out that the most obvious signs of imbalance appeared in bond markets, which have become negative rates have no value for money.

Investors suddenly showed increased interest and took into account: the recession threatening Germany and the entire euro area, slowing growth in the United States, escalating tensions with China, the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the conflict in Hong Kong, Brexit and Argentina.

Outdated system
The writer said analysts and economists agree that the current economic system is outdated, citing factors such as China, Brexit, Donald Trump and private debt.

Because of the unresolved crisis in 2008, there had been instability, economic distortion and injustice, which meant that any event, however small, could reignite a major crisis.

America's losses
The writer pointed out that one of the concerns of the US president's re-election, saying that his economic policy, which is campaigning to show its success has failed.

She cautioned that America was getting poorer and that investors who returned some of their money had not invested in it.

"The trade war does not bear fruit and does not lead to the results expected by Trump," the writer quoted a recent article in the New York Times by economist Paul Krugman as saying.

Krugman added that the trade deficit with China is growing and that US markets are shrinking, that companies are not returning to the United States but moving them to other countries such as Vietnam, and that the US consumer will pay the price of tariff increases on Chinese imports.

Trump, who has made the Dow Jones a benchmark for his policy since he began his presidency, worried when the index fell in recent days and understood that it had gone too far. On August 13, he announced the postponement of the new tariff increase on Chinese imports to December.

This is a goodwill gesture in the hope of reaching a large-scale trade deal with Beijing, but the Trump administration has realized that a sudden rise in tariffs could cause a sudden halt to high-tech companies.

She said Trump's calls for his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to settle trade disputes between the United States and China could have had a chance a few months ago because the Chinese government had changed its stance and no longer sought to stall, but decided to defend what it saw as its rights and ambitions.

The dangers of a currency war
Economists have begun to talk about the dangers of a new currency war, as each country tries to support its activity by practicing competitive cuts at the expense of others, reminiscent of the devastating effects of policies in the 1930s.

The writer pointed to the existence of a mass of volatile capital driven by profit, and moving at the speed of light behind each window to find more profitable places.

This bloc, which has grown since the 2008 crisis, is now a factor of financial, economic and political instability, as evidenced by recent events in Argentina, she said.

What role for China?
Another factor that worries the financial world in China's stance is the high tone adopted by Beijing, coupled with campaigns suggesting that China is now determined to play its part and defend what it sees as its interests, especially as it played a crucial role in the 2008 financial crisis, It agreed to take extraordinary measures to stabilize the world economy.

What will happen in the event of a crisis at a time when the Chinese government no longer agrees to help stabilize the global economic and financial system?

She points out that the way Xi will deal with the Hong Kong issue will be the real indicator of China's future role.

The end of globalization
The writer said Europe would be one of the direct victims of the rising tension between China and the United States, and is likely to be one of the preferred battlegrounds between the two superpowers in the future.

The author concludes that the arch of globalization, which opened 30 years ago with the fall of the Berlin Wall, has been closed, and some de-globalization has already begun, but at this stage it is difficult to know what form it will follow.

Faced with this accelerated decomposition of the old regime, the author has pinned some hopes on a meeting of the G7 leaders (the United States, Germany, Japan, Canada, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom) later this month, but is likely to come up with a declaration.