Paris (AFP)

Trump still unpredictable, Johnson tied up in the Gordian knot of Brexit, Conte on an ejector seat ... The G7 Liberal Democracy Club met by Emmanuel Macron in the South of France this weekend is pale, but will try to show its geopolitical relevance to the multiple crises in the world.

Tensions in the Arab-Persian Gulf, trade war between Washington and Beijing, climate emergency ... The hot issues are piling up, including the crisis in Hong Kong that could be invited to the meeting. Or that of Kashmir which will necessarily be mentioned since the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is invited in the seaside resort of Biarritz placed under the bell of an important security device.

But the days when the G7 could present a united front are over, "in a world that is today very fragmented, very volatile, where reference frames do not necessarily have the efficiency they had before," summarizes a source close to the French presidency.

The main unstable element of this aggregate is obviously Donald Trump. But many other leaders are in complicated situations that hinder their ability, like Boris Johnson in the heart of the Brexit psychodrama, Angela Merkel at the end of the race after 14 years of power or Giuseppe Conte whose government is in danger in Italy.

"It is the format and the very existence of the G7 which are under discussion, because it had become the place where the old West had the opportunity to speak to each other frankly and (...) to refine common positions which are very important in the major international issues, and all this is disappearing because of this scattering, "explains to AFP the former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, Dean of the School of International Affairs Sciences Po in Paris.

- Divergences -

In this complicated framework, Emmanuel Macron, who tries to assume the role of mediator (he received Vladimir Putin, who was expelled from the G8 in 2014 on Monday), wants to reform this format that he described as "a theater of shadows and divisions. "after the previous summit in Canada in 2018, marked by a spectacular blood drive of Donald Trump.

So there should be no final declaration, an exercise made too difficult by the gaping differences between the members on the issues of climate, the Iranian crisis, the migration crisis, Brexit, etc.

The French presidency will try to encourage the emergence of "coalitions of countries actors" eager to "propose concrete solutions to major challenges," according to a French source, and several heads of state outside the G7 are invited. In addition to Mr. Modi, the Chilean Sebastian Piñera, the Egyptian Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, and several African leaders like Paul Kagame (Rwanda), Roch Marc Christian Kaboré (Burkina Faso) or Macky Sall (Senegal). On the other hand, the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker canceled his visit for health reasons.

"The G7 was created as a club of liberal democracies (...) and liberal democracies still have something to contribute to the world and to collective stability, peace, and security," says another French source, summarizing the mission that Emmanuel Macron is trying to accomplish.

- Johnson-Trump Axis? -

The official title of the summit is "the fight against inequalities".

Among the "big challenges" is the climate emergency. "All members except the United States will commit to implement and accelerate the Paris climate agreement, support the UN climate summit in September, defend biodiversity", said John Kirton, Director of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto.

On economic issues, leaders could validate the progress made in mid-July by their finance ministers to an agreement on the taxation of digital giants.

But as often in this kind of meeting, the most interesting will be what is not on the agenda: the unexpected, the body language of the leaders, who meets who bilaterally, Boris Johnson will he do the eyes of Chimène to Donald Trump to ensure his back in case of Brexit without agreement? Will the American president be as isolated as on the now famous photo of the Canadian G7 where he appeared sitting against the other leaders who seemed to be trying to convince him?

© 2019 AFP