Lack of food, medicine and fuel: how the UK assesses the possible consequences of hard brexitis

If Britain leaves the European Union without an agreement with Brussels (the so-called “hard brexit”), the country may experience interruptions with vital resources. This is stated in the government report Operation Yellowhammer ("Operation Yellowhammer"), which was published by The Sunday Times.

It is alleged that this report was prepared by the Cabinet of Ministers to determine the degree of readiness of Great Britain to secede from the European Union without adopting any agreement that would regulate the new order of trade and economic relations between London and the EU.

Recall that the new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that he is ready to withdraw Britain from the European Union according to a “tough” scenario, and will no longer delay this process. The United Kingdom was due to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019 - two years after the submission of a written notice. However, the government of Theresa May failed three times to agree on a draft agreement with the EU with British parliamentarians, which ultimately led to her resignation.

The Operation Yellowhammer dossier says that if you exit without an agreement, the UK might run into problems with food, fuel and essential supplies. The document also notes that business and citizens are not ready for any of the possible exit scenarios from the EU.

Problems with the supply of medicines and food will arise due to delays at French customs - the report says that up to 85% of freight vehicles will face them. Delays to problems with the appearance on the shelves of fresh products, and, consequently, to rising food prices, are stated in the documents.

In the event that the British authorities cancel duties on gasoline imports, this could lead to the closure of two oil refineries, the authors of the document claim. As a result, 2 thousand people will lose their jobs, which may cause strikes.

Serious delays in the operation of seaports and airports are also expected, which will also affect the ability of Britain to supply itself with essential goods and resources.

The first months after brexitis will be really difficult, Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications, said in a conversation with RT.

“Johnson will need to quickly renegotiate agreements with the European Union. The tension will be serious, but in principle, investors have already prepared for this scenario. The UK government did not have “good” exit options, in principle, ”he explained.

• Container ship in port of Southampton, UK
• Reuters
• © Peter Nicholls

According to an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, Vladimir Bruter, Brexit will not lead to the end of the world, which is described in this document.

“This is a horror story for the European Union, the publication of which is designed to ensure that Brussels softens its position. Hard brexitis will have negative consequences, of course, but they will be for Europe, ”the expert noted.

Bruter recalled that US Presidential Advisor on National Security, John Bolton, promised the UK a new “wonderful” bargain, and with the advent of Johnson, the United Kingdom is expected to reorient the United States economically and politically.

“Britain has long been a political colony of the United States, and now it will be formalized and documented. London will not need to commit itself to any continental projects. Yes, hard brexitis is serious, but it will not cause an apocalypse, ”he emphasized.

The reaction of British politicians

In the political circles of Britain, the publication of the report by The Sunday Times caused a predictable reaction - opponents of leaving the EU use it as confirmation of their worst forecasts, while supporters of Brexit are urging not to escalate the situation.

Thus, the representative of liberal democrats Tom Break said that leaving the EU without a deal would create “wartime conditions” in the country.

“People will be horrified that Boris Johnson and the conservatives are ready to implement a plan that will lead to a shortage of medicines, food and fuel. During the campaign in anticipation of the referendum, Boris Johnson did not promise this at all. Brexit put the whole country in a humiliating position, ”the Daily Mirror newspaper quoted him as saying.

In response, Energy Minister Kwasi Quarteng in Johnson’s government said the government would "be fully prepared to exit without an agreement on October 31."

“I believe that people are trying to spread fear among the population, and many people succumb to intimidation and the like. We must prepare for the exit without agreement. Prime Minister Teresa May created the EU Exit Ministry and outlined her mandate last summer as preparing for an exit without a deal, which we focused on, ”the Minister quoted the Daily Mail as saying.

According to him, on October 31, the UK will be "completely ready to exit without an agreement."

In turn, former cabinet ministers, conservatives Ian Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson said the leaked documents for Operation Yellowhammer are a testament to the "establishment conspiracy to sow terror in people's hearts."

“The fact that the journalists found this document in a pub in the Westminster area is already talking about this ongoing conspiracy of the establishment with the goal of sowing horror in people's hearts. It is necessary to put an end to such abuses in the civil service, ”the politicians said in a joint statement.

Chance for the opposition

Political opponents of Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party can take advantage of the tense situation around Britain’s exit from the EU. So Labor leader Jeremy Corbin said on August 14 that he would vote on a vote of no confidence in Johnson’s cabinet to prevent a “catastrophic” exit from the EU without an agreement.

• Jeremy Corbin
• Reuters
• © Simon Dawson

Johnson's parliamentary advantage is only one vote, making him vulnerable to a vote of no confidence. If successful, Corbin promised to form a "transitional government" that would get Brussels a new postponement of Brexit and then hold new parliamentary elections.

The appearance of the dossier is caused by the internal political struggle, which is also accompanied by pressure from the Labor Party, said Dmitry Abzalov.

“The opposition, represented by the Labor Party and Corbin, wants to intimidate voters with such a“ tough ”Brexit and initiate a second referendum. But this option will also be catastrophic, because it actually ignores the population’s request to leave the EU, ”the expert noted.

Abzalov emphasized that "the Conservative Party now wants to quickly withdraw from the European Union, and then as soon as possible to reconsider relations with Europe, which also frightens Brussels with the consequences of" hard "Brexit."

In addition, Corbin is preparing a vote of no confidence in the government and in order to be supported by conservatives who have the necessary votes, they need to scare their moderate part, the expert added.

The topic of holding a second referendum on secession from the EU is not on the agenda, as this will call into question the status of the decision already made, Bruter noted.

“If the decision on withdrawal is in accordance with the will of the voters, there can be no re-expression of will,” the expert emphasized.

Corbin and the Labor Party may pass a vote of no confidence in the government, but even those conservatives who do not approve of Johnson’s intention to hold a tight bracket will not support the vote, Bruther emphasized.

“Therefore, the main addressee of the publication of the report is the European Union. Johnson wants to bargain for additional bonuses that will allow him to decide that there will still be no “hard” brexitis. But, given the nature of European officials and the situation in the EU itself, they cannot make concessions, ”the analyst said.

According to Bruther, "the new head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, does not have the same experience in complex negotiations as her predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker, and her possibilities are much less."

“Johnson wants to convince everyone that if Europe does not make concessions, then he simply has no other choice,” the expert concluded.