Istanbul (AFP)

Twenty years after a deadly earthquake ravaged northwestern Turkey, Istanbul is living in expectation of an earthquake announced as inescapable. And for the experts, the city with 16 million inhabitants is not ready.

Turkey will mark Saturday the 20th anniversary of the magnitude 7.4 earthquake that occurred on 17 August 1999 in Izmit, 100 km east of Istanbul, killing at least 17,400 people, including 1,000 in the economic capital of country.

Now, for seismologists, the question is not whether or not a similar earthquake will strike Istanbul, a city located near the Northeast Anatolian fault, on which the shock of 1999 occurred. But to know when.

Sükrü Ersoy, earthquake specialist and teacher at Yildiz Technical University in Istanbul, believes the city could suffer a major earthquake in the next 10 years.

"In the worst case scenario, the earthquake could reach a magnitude of 7.7," he told AFP. Is Istanbul ready for this, unfortunately, no?

According to him, such a shock would cause the collapse of thousands of buildings, a number of "scary" deaths and the paralysis of Istanbul, the most populous and wealthiest city in the country and a major tourist destination.

The former Ottoman capital has experienced many earthquakes in its history. In 1509, the city was devastated by an earthquake so powerful that the Ottomans named it the "Little Apocalypse".

- "It's fate" -

While Turkey, located in one of the most active seismic zones in the world, is regularly shaken, the 1999 earthquake, which devastated the country's industrial heartland, caused an electroshock.

Since then, an Emergency Management Agency (AFAD) has been established, hospitals capable of withstanding violent shocks have been built and mechanisms for automatic shutdown of gas networks have been installed.

But for experts, the main problem in Istanbul lies in the tens of thousands of buildings built without authorization or control during the anarchic development of the city in recent decades.

Many of these buildings, sometimes built with cement mixed with sea sand, and therefore more friable, collapsed in 1999.

"Right after the earthquake of 1999, there was an awareness," said AFP Nusret Suna, head of the Chamber of Building Engineers of Istanbul. "But over time, fatalism has taken over, and we've said + It's destiny +, and we've moved on to something else."

While controls are stricter today, the collapse of a residential building in Istanbul last February, in which more than 20 people died, has raised concerns about the strength of the city's buildings.

A major process of "urban renewal" of destroying buildings "at risk" is underway.

- "General mobilization" -

But for Suna, who calls for a "general mobilization" to bring the city to earthquake-resistant standards, these measures are insufficient.

Sharing this view, the new mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, promised to put together a plan to deal with an earthquake, including committing to creating more green spaces to accommodate the survivors.

In theory, each neighborhood has a "gathering space". But many of them disappeared under car parks or shopping centers.

If the preparations are not "accelerated", then Istanbul will be in a "real chaos" in case of shock, warns Recep Salci, leader of the association of rescue workers AKUT, which intervened after the earthquake of 1999.

"We can not prevent an earthquake from happening, but we can reduce the consequences enormously," he says, calling for inspiration from Japan and Chile, two countries regularly shaken by earthquakes that have taken radical measures to minimize their impact.

Mr. Suna of the Istanbul Chamber of Engineers says Istanbul needs "15 to 20 years" to be ready. "Since 1999, 20 years have been lost, but do not be discouraged."

© 2019 AFP