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" Pakistan will respond to any Indian aggression, " Prime Minister Imran Khan said in a speech in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Azad-Kashmir administered by Pakistan. The tone has been rising since August 5, the day of India's revocation of the special autonomous status of the part of Kashmir it administers. Yesterday, Wednesday, August 14, National Day in Pakistan, the celebrations were turned to Kashmir and a rally was held in Lahore at the end of the day. This August 15, a black day takes place in the country.
With our special correspondent in Lahore, Sonia Ghezali
Brandi at arm's length, planted on the ground, hanging on the car doors or at the back of the motorbikes, at the Lahore Liberty cross each shows his green and white flag of Pakistan.
In the trunks of cars, DIY sounds broadcast nationalistic songs at full volume.
" We are here to support the independence of Kashmir and to celebrate our independence, " says Assed Muhamad Muzar.
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On the road, a truck arranged in parade float in the colors of the yellow Kashmir flag with white and green stripes. Abdulrahmane, 11, made a cloak under the amused eyes of his mother. " This flag is as important as Pakistan's, " says Faiza.
This Punjabi family came to this national holiday in support of Kashmir. " The Kashmirians want their independence or belong to Pakistan. Everyone wants their independence, everyone needs independence, it's an essential right, we celebrate our independence today and we support the Kashmiri will, "says Faiza. " We will not let go of Kashmir, " she adds.
Lahore is the capital of Punjab, which is the most populous province of the country. It is also the stronghold of the Muslim League of Pakistan, which is the political party led by the Sharif family clan, which forms part of the opposition to Prime Minister Imran Khan.
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Can a war between Pakistan and India be envisaged?
The tone is more and more belligerent in the statements of Imran Khan. " Our army is seasoned, the people are at their side, " he said Wednesday. But the Pakistani authorities undoubtedly give priority to dialogue.
" Pakistan is trying to approach the Security Council, it is trying to gain diplomatic support from European countries, the United States so that there is diplomatic pressure on India to solve the problem, " Hasan analysis Askari Rizvi, political scientist and Pakistani military analyst.
The Pakistani Foreign Minister recently visited China. He also spoke by telephone with the head of European diplomacy, Federica Mogherini. But these diplomatic exchanges have no impact on the reality on the ground , on the line of control that separates India from Pakistan on the territory of Kashmir.
" The possibility of an armed conflict between Pakistan and India is not to be ruled out because every 3-4 days there are incidents on the Kashmir line of control between the Indian and Pakistani soldiers and that can happen. 'aggravate. And the danger is the intensification of these incidents, "said Hasan Askari Rizvi.
If military escalation is to be feared, says Hasan Askari Rizvi, a war is unlikely in view of the economic crisis and military capabilities of the country against India. Despite the 26% of the budget devoted to his army by Pakistan, the Pakistani security forces by their number, by their equipment would not stand long against the powerful Indian army.
Neither of these two nuclear powers would consider engaging in an armed conflict that could turn into an international drama, according to several observers.
Black Day in Pakistan
On Thursday, August 15, the national holiday in India that celebrates the anniversary of its independence, Pakistan, it has declared a black day in support of the people of Kashmir. Several events are planned across Pakistan.
Behind the rallies, there is the civil society but there are also the political parties, Kashmiri defense organizations that are very active. Mushaal Hussein Mullick is a key figure in the Kashmiri separatist movement. She will lead the Kashmiri militants in the demonstration. Her husband is Yasin Malik, the leader of the Jammu-Kashmir Liberation Front. He has been imprisoned for several months in India.
" According to all universal human rights, every human being has the right to dignity and freedom. We are not a part of India, the plebiscite has not been realized. We only ask one thing, it is to happen. I am very worried about the fact that in all respects we have been silenced politically, "said the activist.
Mushaal Hussein Mullick calls on the international community to help: " I would like UN soldiers or the international community to send help there because India does not allow aid shipments. There is no way to reach them. I suggest that parachutists can drop aids. This curfew will last because people will resist. They are resisting everywhere. Kashmir will never be Indian, says the 32-year-old.