Difficult challenges for power parties in the region

The ruling, hegemonic, power or “president” parties in some countries of the Middle East, in varying degrees and in different forms, face pressing challenges affecting their survival, alliances or programs, as expressed by the cases of Sudan, Algeria, Tunisia, Turkey and Israel over the past few months. This can be explained by a number of considerations: the absence of historical leaders, the emergence of differences in political wings, the authoritarian practices of the heads of political parties, the competition for party leadership, and the fragmentation of ruling coalitions in electoral entitlements. These problems will continue to have several effects related to the exploitation of the opposition by successive splits, existing and potential, to strengthen their political status, the imbalance of internal balances in favor of political parties and possibly armed militias, and obstruction of the transitional arrangements faced by the countries of the second wave of the popular movement.

Several challenges

The main problems facing power parties in some Middle Eastern countries as reflected by the interactions of the first half of 2019 are:

1- The absence of historical leaders or what is known in the literature as the “biology of political death”, as applied to the situation of Nidaa Tounes party after the death of President Beji Kaid Essebsi on July 25, 2019. Although Nidaa Tounes was suffering from several problems Before the death of Essebsi, these problems will be doubled after his absence, given the lack of a political symbol that can unite the political parties within the party.

In this context, the party split into two conflicting fronts: «Front Monastir» led by Hafez Kayed Essebsi, and «Hammamet Front» led by the head of the parliamentary bloc Sufian Tobal, which led to the loss of the party's parliamentary majority and reached the third place in the size of parliamentary blocs after the bloc It represents both the Ennahda Movement and the National Coalition, which indicates that the status of Nidaa Tounes has been affected by internal disputes.

These problems are related to the defection of the majority of Nidaa Tounes party members as a result of the practices of the son of former President Hafez Kaid Essebsi, due to his alliance with some symbols accused of financial corruption (money laundering and tax evasion), which explains public support for the campaign led by a president. Ministers Youssef witness to prosecute a number of businessmen.

2 - the emergence of differences of the political wings, especially resulting from divisions towards dealing with the popular movement, as happened in Sudan and Algeria, which led to the eventual cracks in the «National Congress» after the removal of former President Omar al-Bashir from power, as well as Party «National Liberation Front» after the resignation of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

The National Congress Party (NCP), which had been in power for three decades (1989-2019), has struggled between two fronts: one pro-Bashir and one opposed to it. The party also faces strong resistance from the forces of the Declaration of Freedom and Change and some members of the junta. Transition to return to the scene on a new basis, especially as his practices were one of the main reasons for the revolutionary movement against the regime of Omar al-Bashir. Divisions within the party also began as Bashir announced his candidacy in the 2020 presidential election.

As well as the split in the ruling National Democratic Assembly in Algeria, which is one of the pillars of the ruling presidential alliance, and the announcement of its Secretary-General Ahmed Ouyahia support for the demands of citizens and demands for Bouteflika to resign from his position, and the declaration of the Central Committee of the vacancy of the post of Secretary-General of the party, and support the army's call on the It represents a real beginning to resolve the crisis by forming a consensus government other than the political class, with the adoption of mechanisms to monitor the elections, which collided with another wing that supported the survival of Bouteflika in power.

3 - Authoritarian practices of the heads of political parties, which led to successive splits, such as those experienced by the «Party of Justice and Development» in Turkey, especially after the defeat of some of its candidates in the municipal elections in Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul, as reflected in the resignation of Ali Babacan There are even attempts led by Babacan as one of the founders of the party and the former deputy prime minister, who succeeded in achieving economic success for the country, to launch a new party with former President Abdullah Gul.

In this context, several statements by Babacan in the media indicate that «differences in values ​​and principles make it impossible for him to continue in the party», adding that «Turkey needs a new vision to be developed in consultation with different groups», as expressed by the statements of former Prime Minister Ahmed Davutoglu, at different times from his concerns about the situation within the party, and although he has confirmed that he will remain a member of the party, but adds that resigning from the party will be a last resort.

This reflects the growing voices within the party demanding a return to the first policies with its inception in 2001 and the coming to power the following year, which focused on democratic reform and the rule of law, especially that there are internal problems reflecting the authoritarian style of government, including full state control of the media The decline of the rule of law and the worsening of the economic crisis, but it is too early to talk about the sharp division within the «Party of Justice and Development» and focus on the post-President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

4 - Competition for party leadership, which applies to the Popular Congress Party in Yemen after the killing of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his comrade Aref Al-Zouka, as the biggest obstacle facing the efforts to unite the ranks of party members during the next stage is to compete for its leadership and conflicting agendas of its members A group of party leaders in Sanaa is pushing for Sadiq Amin Aburas to take over the leadership of the party. It is backed by the Houthi militia, while the other group, known as the Foreign Leaders, supports the son of former President Ahmed Ali.

However, there is a third party that calls for the unification of the party, but it is based on the rule that its leader is the current president Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, especially as he was the deputy chairman of the party before the Houthi coup. With his deteriorating relationship with Saleh's wing, it was announced in Sanaa that he was overthrown with other party leaders, and Hadi's efforts in his efforts to dialogue with the leaders of the Congress Party were unsuccessful by organizing meetings with them because of objections from Saleh loyalists. .

The most recent of these meetings, according to some Yemeni sources, was the meeting between the party's leaders in Jeddah on July 22, 2019, in which no consensus was reached on a consensus on reorganizing the party from within, given the ongoing struggle for leadership and the inability to hold a general conference. The party inside Yemen to elect a new leadership according to the regulations governing it. Although a final communiqué was issued for the meeting, which was attended by leaders Ahmed Obeid bin Dagher and Parliament Speaker Sultan al-Berkani, many analyzes believe that this does not reflect the experience of the Yemeni ruling party for three decades.

"The meeting came from the sensation of a group of leaders and cadres of the General People's Congress to their historical responsibility towards the homeland, and the events and conspiracies that plague it almost from its regional environment, caused by the coup by the supported Houthi militias," the statement said. The meeting agreed on the importance of unifying the GPC and creating a general framework to activate the role of the party in Yemeni political life, and decided to continue deliberations and discussions and effective communication with the leaders of the Congress abroad and at home to urge them to refer Of these efforts. »

5. The ruling coalitions are fragmented in the electoral entitlements, as indicated by the experience of the parties in Israel, which will face an entitlement on September 17. In this context, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to unite his far-right parties in the government, especially as these parties unilaterally in the elections held in April 2019, where two parties fell, losing the right to six seats, and became the success of Netanyahu in part, a What stalled the formation of a stable government.

But there is disagreement over the presidency of the Union of Right-wing Parties. There is a trend that supports the new Minister of Education, Rafi Peretz, and another that enhances the chances of former Justice Minister Elit Shaked. In this context, Netanyahu is trying to reach a compromise between the two directions, so that the right-wing parties contest the elections as a united bloc.

Possible effects

There are several expected repercussions if the challenges faced by the power parties in some countries of the Region continue or even grow, which can be addressed as follows:

1. The opposition exploits successive and potential splits to consolidate its political status.For example, if the AKP loses a large number of members of parliament in Turkey during the upcoming elections, especially with the division of the party, this will be a window of opportunity for the opposition forces. Which comes first, the Republican People's Party and other parties.

2. The imbalance of internal balances in the interest of political parties and possibly armed militias, as reflected in the case of the Popular Congress Party in Yemen, where several parties are making efforts to return the party to the political scene to be a balancing force against the Houthis and the Yemeni Rally for Reform, especially since the two factions The latter seek control of power to serve their narrow agenda.

The same is true of the Ennahda movement in Tunisia, which is trying to dominate transitional arrangements because of its legislative majority in the People's Assembly after the dissolution of the parliamentary bloc of Nidaa Tounes party and its failure to regain its cohesion after Essebsi's death. The fortunes of Ennahdha reinforce the lack of balance between the legislative and executive branches as a result of the restriction of the powers of the acting President of the State Mohammed Al-Nasser.

3 - Obstruction of the transitional arrangements, which are going through the countries of the so-called "second wave of popular movement," Sudan and Algeria, one of the challenges to the implementation of the agreement between the Transitional Military Council and the forces of the "Declaration of Freedom and Change" signed last July, lies in the resistance The exclusion of leaders and members of the «Congress» party from the interactions of the political scene after the removal of Bashir on April 11, so the party expressed in a statement issued on 13 April last, expressed hope that «the process of political agreement on the future of the country without the exclusion of one», stressing "He demands equal rights for all political forces," he said It is not only about individuals without exclusion, but also within the framework of justice and law. ” The party «refuse to arrest its leaders and its commissioner and a large number of symbols, and calls for their immediate release, especially as the junta released all detainees».

Double holes

The challenges facing the political parties in some Middle East countries will remain in the coming stage, as there are no indicators that reveal their confrontation and limit their effects, which exacerbates the consequences of political instability, especially as practical experience indicates the inability of a faction or political party to bear The burdens of governing on the one hand, and the ruling coalitions faltering on the other.

• The ruling, hegemonic, power or “president” parties in some countries of the Middle East, in varying degrees and in different forms, face pressing challenges affecting their survival, alliances or programs, as expressed by the cases of Sudan, Algeria, Tunisia, Turkey and Israel in the past few months. The past.