Fight or agree, the dilemma of Macri and Argentina

• Argentine primary: Macri's hard defeat against Cristina Kirchner's candidate
• Profile: Alberto Fernández, the "common guy" who made peace with Cristina to beat Macri
• Latin America: General test for the presidential elections of Argentina

A political missile hit Argentina, and the consequences are still difficult to gauge. Mauricio Macri , who is seeking re-election, suffered a beating of votes in the primary elections before Alberto Fernández . The candidate of Peronism was imposed by almost 15 points of difference, 47% against 32%, a result that absolutely nobody expected in the country. The situation is delicate, because the real elections are within 11 weeks , on October 27, but Argentina, with an endemic fragile economy, could have problems as of today, when the financial markets open. Will you resist the weight or suffer a strong devaluation? Open question that places Macri in a dilemma as clear as bitter: keep fighting or agree.

Continuing to fight means dreaming of a Homeric feat, a chimera: reverse the result. Agreeing means calling Fernandez and, together, generating a consensus that gives predictability and peace of mind to the economy. The problem is that Argentina was never a country of consensus, but of confrontations. And on election night both candidates ratified that tradition. Macri did not congratulate the rival for the triumph and Fernandez had no word of consideration towards the head of state , who in the midst of the devastation by the result had the presence of mind to give a press conference and answer critical questions from the media.

Everything indicates that Macri d should comply with the merit of being the first non-Peronist democratic president in 91 years who manages to finish the term. And in that sense the question in the country is how it ends. The memory of the long transition between Raúl Alfonsín and Carlos Menem in 1989, in the midst of a terrifying hyperinflation, is present. Alfonsín resigned from the position five months before, emptied of power before the request of a dollar "to recontract high" that the future ministers of Menem demanded. Peronism, the Argentines know, is not characterized by the care of institutional forms, and when it smells the proximity of power acts like the shark before a drop of blood in the sea: it comes out to bite.

Claudio Jacquelin , political analyst at La Nación newspaper, said that Argentina would not resist another transition like that of 89: "Officials and opponents are obliged not to repeat mistakes from the Argentine past. Maturity cannot continue to be expected after so many years of failures. and recurring crises. " His colleague Rosendo Fraga agrees: "The issue is no longer the choice, but governance. The only viable thing is a Macri-Fernández agreement, Argentina is in a very fragile economic situation."

Macri called his government to an emergency meeting for today. The blow to the president's pride is tremendous, also that of Marcos Peña, his chief of staff and considered until today a machine to win elections. All the analyzes of the government failed: they believed that Fernández was a "horrible candidate", that Cristina Kirchner had been wrong in appointing him and that since his nomination Peronism had only lost votes. Reality proved the exact opposite. He also showed that the government underestimated the novelty of reunified Peronism , a situation different from that of the macrist triumphs of 2015 and 2017. And it showed that the survey companies deepen their already recurring lack of credibility: some spoke Friday of a tie or even of a triumph for the minimum of Macri. None predicted more than seven points of difference.

The brutal devaluation crisis unleashed in April 2018, which boosted inflation, hit wages and increased unemployment . But, with all its seriousness, the government's big mistake was to insist on the same recipes and react too late with heterodox measures that would bring relief to the population. That land devastated in the economic and social sectors severely affected María Eugenia Vidal , the charismatic governor of the province of Buenos Aires that was to be the natural successor of Macri in 2023.

Nor did the issue of corruption influence the vote of Argentines. Neither the 13 prosecutions and seven requests for pretrial detention for Cristina Kirchner , released thanks to her senator's privileges, nor the shocking journalistic revelation of the newspaper La Nación, known as the "corruption notebooks" a year ago.

In his speech to celebrate the triumph, Fernández sought to calm the country: "We don't come here to restore a regime, we come to create a new Argentina in which everyone takes place . The concept of revenge, crack and anything else was finished. Divide us. We are going to make that country, I owe it to Estanislao (his son) and you to all his children (...) Those who are uneasy not to be uneasy. We were never crazy, we always fix the problems that others generated. Argentina today is giving birth to another country. "

Everything indicates that in the last two weeks, and after a very bad start to the campaign, Fernández added valuable votes by promising that he would lower the interest paid by the Central Bank for some issued bonds (Leliq) and use savings to increase pensions and others. social benefits. Inviable in the facts, but effective for the voter. The economic referent of Fernández is not yet known, who much sooner than later must send a clear message to the IMF, trapped by an Argentina to which he lent 57,000 million dollars .

And Cristina? He voted in the Patagonia province of Santa Cruz and stayed there. He sent a recorded message that was outdated and in which it was clearly turned off. As muted as presidents Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump should be , who explicitly supported Macri and most likely have to deal with a revived Kirchnerism starting in December, a political option that in its 12 years in power had relations under zero with the United States and most European powers. Alert, also, for the European Union-Mercosur agreement. And a joy for the Venezuela of Nicolás Maduro .

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

• Argentina
• international
• Mauricio Macri
• America

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