By RFIPalled on 11-08-2019Modified on 11-08-2019 at 14:17

In Tunisia, no less than 98 applications have been submitted for the presidential election next September. The Independent Higher Electoral Commission (ISIE) will now review the files and publish the list of successful candidates on 14 August. What we can already remember from this profusion of applications with Vincent Geisser, a CNRS researcher and specialist in the Arab world. [Analysis]

In the last presidential elections, in November 2014, there was already an opposition between a camp considered modernist-progressive incarnated by the candidacy of the former president Béji Caid Essebsi , died on July 25, and of his party Nidaa Tounes, and a camp considered to be rather conservative incarnated by Moncef Marzouki.

But this year, the political chessboard is much more exploded. " One of the characteristics of this election is the division of this famous 'progressive' modernist camp, with several candidacies that are not validated by the president's party - since there is only one - , but who are in the presidential trend and who embody this legacy of President Beji Caid Essebsi, explains Vincent Geisser .

First, that of the outgoing Prime Minister, who is still in office as Prime Minister - Youssef Chahed . Second candidature is that of the current Minister of Defense, who is now the official candidate of the party of the late President Beji Caid Essebsi.

► See also : The roundup of heavyweights of the presidential election in Tunisia

And then there is a third candidacy, that of the journalist Nabil Karoui of the famous intermaghréine channel Nessma TV, which some people call a little Tunisian Berlusconi, and who too, without being the official candidate of the former party of President Béji Caid Essebsi, is in his movement, since his chain had done much, much for his election and we know that there was a certain closeness between the two men. So indeed, this camp is today extremely divided in the presidential election .

The moderate Islamist party Ennahda, the first party in the Assembly, is presenting for the first time a presidential candidate. Abdel Fattah Mourou , Speaker of the Acting Parliament and Vice-President of the party, will wear the colors of his party in the polls on 15 September.

The " Egyptian syndrome " of Islamists

This is a change of strategy compared to the 2014 presidential elections, during which they chose to play the card of neutrality. And it is perhaps, according to Vincent Geisser an application above all symbolic. " Why Islamists, finally, present a candidate, while they were instead on a reissue of their neutrality, that is to say, to choose no candidate? This is because they do not want to upset their base. The base says: we are the majority in the country, we are the majority in Parliament. However, we do not present candidatures for the presidential elections. There was this feeling of self-restraint, self-mutilation, among the ' Ennahdhaouis' base, among activists ... And it seems that the party wants to give them some satisfaction, by presenting a candidate.

But some leaders do not want an Islamist president to be elected. It's a bit of Islamists' fear today of being in the chair. This is called the 'Egyptian syndrome'. The idea that if there is an Islamist president, it will still cause divisions in the country and they will suffer.

Many Islamists continue to be afraid of being too exposed, accepting or being elected to the presidency of the Republic. So this choice is a choice that can be interpreted first of all as a symbolic choice to calm the base, to satisfy it rather than a strategic choice to try to win the presidency ".

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