The abolition of Kashmir's special status will affect South Asia and the world

New Delhi's controversial move to abolish the special status of the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region is an important moment in South Asian regional politics, and this decision has been driven by India's domestic policy, one India-Pakistan scholar said.

Esfandiar Mir, a researcher at the Center for Security and International Cooperation at Stanford University, says the impact of the resolution will go beyond India and a number of countries, including Pakistan, China and the United States, will be forced to re-adjust their foreign policies. Closely.

He adds that the resolution will increase the conflict in South Asia, and stressed the observation of four things he sees as important in his view, namely:

The possibility of increased competition between India and Pakistan
With the current move, Pakistan believes that the current seven-decade-old status quo has been symbolically violated. This sentiment stems in part from the adverse political reaction in the Kashmir Valley to change, and Pakistan seems concerned that Indian behavior is now unclear.

It also fears that India may encourage immigration to Muslim-majority areas in Kashmir, whose population tends to be independent, or to Pakistan, and in this way the demography of the region changes.

Impact on regional policies including Afghanistan
The United States is about to reach a settlement with the Afghan Taliban, which Pakistan has helped. A settlement would allow the United States to end its nearly 18-year war and withdraw its troops from the country.

In return, the Taliban may pledge to prevent international "terrorists" from using Afghan territory, and to start peace-sharing talks with the Afghan government.

So India's decision will affect whether this settlement can continue. Pakistan is likely to remind the United States that it was important in the Afghan peace process and its influence over the Taliban, in the hope that the United States will support India.

3. Terrorist groups may see this as an opportunity
In early July, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri issued a strongly worded "Don't Forget Kashmir" message to India, and India's decision fuels that narrative.

The organization's executives, who have long sought to control Kashmiri resistance and reduce Pakistan's influence, will see India move a strategic opportunity to expand their jihadist project in Kashmir.

Other transnational groups, such as ISIS, will also seek to capitalize on anger in the Kashmir valley, and groups based in Pakistan-based Kashmir may want to target Indian cities.

4. The intervention of the United States and China is inevitable
India's decision will be unwelcome news in Washington, not just for its potential negative consequences for US policy in Afghanistan. Over the past few years, the United States has wanted India to be a partner in an emerging alliance against rising China.

From the perspective of the United States, India has deviated from its course and surrounded itself with its alliances, including the purchase of missile systems from Russia. Concerned about the peace of Indian democracy, Washington has made a veiled criticism of Moody's Hindu nationalist policy. In her view, unilateral change of Kashmir is another step in the wrong direction.

The researcher concluded his analysis that this change will also complicate India's relationship with China, Beijing has demanded that it should control parts of the Ladakh region, the Buddhist majority in Kashmir, and India's move to make Ladakh a separate area under federal control, and thus underestimate the claim of ancient China.

At present, China is likely to support Pakistan's efforts to mobilize multilateral institutions against India, and in forums such as the UN Security Council, China may also strengthen its military alliance with Pakistan and provide cover for provocative actions against India.