• Government crisis: Motion of censorship, consultation and dissolution of the Chambers: towards new elections in Italy
  • Instability: The breakdown of the Government in Italy triggers its risk premium, infects the Spanish debt and knocks out the Ibex

The Italian government is closer to falling. The vice president of Interior and head of the sovereign League, Matteo Salvini, challenges his own Executive and will lead the motion of censure against Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, to force him to resign. The escalation of political tension between the 5 Star Movement of Luigi Di Maio and the Matteo Salvini League, has shown that both formations have fewer and fewer points in common to continue governing together as in the last 14 months in their anomalous coalition.

That is why Salvini has given up having more ministers. Conte will hold on to the Executive without resigning at least until the motion of censure in the Senate, whose date - which will not be later than August 20 - could be known next Monday afternoon. For this reason, the deputies of the League will not go on vacation and will remain in Rome by express order of Matteo Salvini.

"I see that there is a lot of harmony between the Democratic Party (PD, socialists) and Di Maio," Matteo Salvini said yesterday in order to provoke his - still - executive partner. And he adds: " Such a dangerous government for democracy would be incredible ." Di Maio, who offers no alternatives to the situation and is aware of the decline of his party, has been quick to respond: " Dear Salvini, come up with something else to justify what you have done, clown! " The drop that broke the glass between the two took place on Wednesday, when those of Di Maio refused to vote on the motion of confidence linked to the completion of the Turin-Lyon AVE, a historic political battle linked to the very birth of the formation founded by Beppe Cricket.

"Populism has lost," says the secretary general of the Democratic Party, Nicola Zingaretti: "Salvini has accelerated the crisis for fear of having to face the General Budgets," said the head of a formation destined to be the great second of the opposition in the next legislature. To make matters worse, former Prime Minister Renzi is unable to see another who is not himself as leader of the PD.

The latest polls published in the transalpine press see the League as Italy's first game, with 36% of the votes . Gathering 7.5% of the Brothers of Italy of Giorgia Meloni and 7.1% of Forza Italia, the party of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, could achieve an absolute majority, thus creating a center-right government with Salvini as the first Minister. The 5 Star Movement would go from being the most voted in March 2018 to the third in October 2019 with 17.8%. The Democratic Party of Nicola Zingaretti would obtain 20.5% as the second most voted formation in the country. If there were no other possible Government, the Italians would go to the polls between October and November.

What would Italy risk during this several week impasse? The problem is that the new Government, perhaps led by Matteo Salvini, would have to wait until the end of the year to see the light. But Italy has several open fronts to resolve, both economically and in relation to the EU. On August 26, for example, Italy has to present its candidates for the European Commission. And it would not make sense - say the Italian media - that a transalpine commissioner in Brussels represents a government that has already ceased to exist or have a route. Throughout the month of October, Italy will have to face its General Budgets in coherence with the rules of the European Union.

Reduction of deputies

On September 9, on the other hand, the final vote on the reduction of parliamentarians (345 less), the measure-symbol of the 5 Star Movement, is planned, a formation that was born in the spirit of protest against the economic waste of politics -In Rome there are 950 parliamentarians in front of the 616 in Madrid-. Thus, the party of Luigi Di Maio, although he has achieved other reforms such as the "Law 100" for early retirement and a decaffeinated version of the Universal Basic Income; He would lose the opportunity to fulfill one of his great promises that allowed the rise of the grillinos between 2013 and 2018.

If there is one thing that the Italian governments know well, there is no worse economy than the one that has the risk of stagnating. It is true that, traditionally, the Italian economy has gone one way and politics on the other. But the political and economic crisis could merge. With the entry of the Government Movement 5 Stars-League, Italy went through several months of negative growth until reaching the current zero growth . According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, Italy could grow 0.1% before the end of 2019. International markets were worried about the situation. The risk premium reached 240 basis points on Friday. The Milan Stock Exchange fell by 2.5% and some shares of bank entities had to be suspended for losses close to 5%. To relaunch the Italian economy, something basic to achieve political stability, according to the newspaper Corriere della Sera, "consistent medium-term reforms" and not just "tax cuts" or "momentary incentives for companies" would have been necessary. At the moment, after the motion of censure, it will be necessary to see who will move token first. Meanwhile, the League leader sends his message as a future candidate and says: "Whoever votes for Salvini knows what he is voting for."

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  • Italy
  • Matteo Salvini
  • Silvio Berlusconi
  • Beppe Grillo

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