At the outset of her article in Foreign Policy magazine, author Alia Brahimi wondered whether Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had given jihadists the best way to recruit and recruit members by recalling US troops to the kingdom.
The writer, a co-founder of Legatos Global, a policy and security advisory firm, noted that anger at the US presence in Saudi Arabia had prompted Osama bin Laden to establish al-Qaeda and declare jihad against the West, and that the crown prince's decision to welcome the return of troops could ignite Wick again.
She said the return of US troops to Saudi Arabia once again reflected the Saudi Crown Prince's risk-taking approach, and that his bet that hostility to the Iranian people and the religious establishment would overshadow any anti-American sentiment was dangerous.
Authorizing the return of US troops is part of a pattern of high-risk gambling by the crown prince, as demonstrated by the war in Yemen, mass arrests of princes and sons of kings on corruption charges, the brutal killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and the arrest of activists who have repeatedly defended social freedoms, the writer said. Himself adopted it, as well as improved relationship with Israel.
She added that with this changing strategic behavior, the Saudi leadership faces a number of different groups at the same time, from the old religious guard to young activists.
The decision to host US forces again could inadvertently encourage jihadists as well, and the Saudi authorities are better aware of how the past invitation of foreign forces has stoked a deadly movement.
The author warned that the official return of US forces to Saudi Arabia can be seen by al-Qaeda as an opportunity and is now desperately seeking to distinguish itself from the sectarianism of ISIS.
She concluded that counterterrorism officials around the world should be on alert, and that what is happening in Saudi Arabia may not be the absence of dissent, but rather the calm run by the monarchy in the pre-renewed storm.