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View of Parliament after the vote against the Brexit agreement, London, January 15, 2019. Reuters TV via REUTERS

In the United Kingdom, the threat of a sudden exit from the European Union, that is to say without agreement with the 27, on October 31, appears as the most likely scenario. In any case, it is the one most often mentioned by Boris Johnson. In four weeks, Theresa May's successor will have to submit to the questions of British MPs while the majority of them are opposed to an exit without agreement.

The resumption of parliamentary activities in the first week of September could put an end to Boris Johnson's term. A motion of no confidence hangs over the Prime Minister's head.

Accused of not wanting to renegotiate the exit agreement of the European Union and favor an exit without agreement on October 31, Boris Johnson mobilizes his opponents in the middle of summer torpor.

The anti-Brexit parliamentarians , be they conservative, Labor, liberal Democrats seek to unite to propose an alternative to his pro-Brexit government. They will only have 14 days to do so after the adoption of the non-confidence motion. If they can not agree, Boris Johnson threatens to remain in office until October 31 and to organize an early general election after the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

The stakes are high and the battle between the executive and the parliamentarians promises to be fierce. The Queen may have to mediate this conflict, and this would be the first time in the history of the United Kingdom.