“Kiev has an offensive plan”: can the death of an APU soldier lead to an aggravation of the conflict in Donbass

The Ukrainian army began preparations for military operations in the area of ​​Mariupol. It is reported by the People’s Police Department of the unrecognized DPR. According to the statement of the department of the self-proclaimed republic, units of the 406th artillery brigade of the Ukrainian Navy armed with 152-mm and 122-mm guns took up firing positions. The deployment of these weapons is prohibited by the Minsk agreements.

“Our intelligence has obtained data on the highest levels of combat readiness and advancement to the front line of units and units of the reserve of the VFU (Ukrainian armed forces. - RT ) in the Mariupol direction ... We regard such actions of the Ukrainian side as direct preparation for active hostilities” , - the text of the message of the Office of the People’s Police says.

Also, according to the DPR, the command of the Operation of the Joint Forces (OOS) raised the alarm about the Azov Regiment and the units of the 56th Motorized Infantry Brigade, while the reserve units of the 36th and 35th Marine Corps advanced to the demarcation line.

In addition, the DNR people's militia’s intelligence records an increase in the activity of flights of Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. The militia has already reported on the interception of two devices.

• Gunners of the "Azov" regiment in the area of ​​Mariupol
• Reuters
• © Marko Djurica

However, an RT source in the Batkivshchyna party predicts that there will not be a serious aggravation of the situation in the Donbass in August, although it will take no more than a week to deploy the AFU systems prohibited by the Minsk agreements.

“Naturally, the General Staff of Ukraine has an offensive plan in the east of the country. It can be implemented with the consent of President Vladimir Zelensky. Now the truce is again foiled, but there are still no prerequisites for large-scale clashes. A really acute situation may reign later, perhaps in the fall, ”the source said.

Since July 21 in the Donbass, the so-called bread truce. Earlier in Moscow and Kiev, the declared ceasefire was generally positively assessed. According to Alexander Lukashevich, Permanent Representative of Russia to the OSCE, the ceasefire reduced the number of victims of shelling, however, did not lead to the establishment of "complete silence."

“Unpredictable situation”

On August 7, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky convened a meeting with the participation of members of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), the leadership of the General Staff of the Armed Forces and the Ministry of Defense. The reason for this was the death of four Ukrainian soldiers of the 36th Marine Brigade near the village of Pavlopol (30 km north-east of Mariupol).

“Today’s incident is aimed at undermining not only this truce, but the negotiation process as a whole. Ukraine sincerely seeks peace. And our desire is unchanging. Today, the whole world saw exactly who does not want the world, ”Zelensky wrote on his Facebook page.

In turn, the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ruslan Khomchak, during a briefing in the morning of August 7, told reporters that the Ukrainian troops were put on alert and capable of performing tasks “in case of an unforeseen situation”.

According to the Ukrainian side, on the night of August 6, the marines were allegedly fired upon by the militia at the time when they were engaged in the engineering equipment of the platoon-support point. The OOS press center claims that the incident "testifies to targeted actions to further exacerbate the conflict."

True, Kiev does not yet have a clear version of what happened. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stated that the DPR People’s Police fired from a hand-held anti-tank grenade launcher (RPG). In turn, Ukrainian officers of the Joint Center for the Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire (JCCC) reported to the OSCE mission on the firing of APU soldiers from an anti-tank grenade launcher (SPG-9).

• LPR militia during the withdrawal of weapons of caliber less than 100 millimeters from the contact line
• RIA News
• © Valery Melnikov

Representation of the DPR in the JCCC denied the accusations of Kiev. As explained in Donetsk, the nearest militia positions (near the villages of October and Ukrainian) are located about 3 km from the site of the alleged shelling. The aiming range of a hand-held anti-tank grenade launcher is 200 to 700 m, and the SPG-9 is 1300 m.

Representation of the DPR in the JCCC notes that "neither the altitude profile, nor the tactical and technical characteristics of these weapons allow firing in this direction."

According to the militia, four Ukrainian troops died as a result of careless actions during unloading of anti-personnel mines near the village of Oryol. The accusations against the DPR, according to the representation, are dictated by the desire of the OOS command to divert attention from the recent shelling of the Armed Forces of Horlivka and October.

A RT source in the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that on August 6 there was a “significant aggravation” of the situation in the Mariupol region. According to him, four Ukrainian troops actually died from a mine explosion, but it was allegedly released from the side of the militia.

In an interview with RT, political analyst Alexander Dudchak noted that the situation surrounding the deaths of Ukrainian marines is a “typical incident” on the contact line when both sides of the conflict blame each other.

“It's hard to say anything. There is a civil war, military personnel and civilians continue to die. Nobody wants to take responsibility. But this incident is likely to benefit Kiev, which is interested in further confrontation with the militia. And for this, new victims are needed, including in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ”Dudchak explained.

In a RT commentary, the president of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko noted that for Kiev it has become the norm to attribute to the militia the tragedies occurring in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to him, near the contact line, Ukrainian troops suffer mainly non-combat losses, primarily because of the “banal sloppiness”.

A RT source in the “Servant of the People” party suggested that responsibility for the death of the Marines is, to one degree or another, borne by Chief of the General Staff Ruslan Khomchak and Lieutenant General Vladimir Kravchenko, who was appointed Zelensky commander of the environmental protection forces a few days ago.

• Vladimir Zelensky during a trip to the Lugansk region
• Reuters
• © Ukrainian Presidential Press Service

“There are still a lot of questions to Khomchak because of the hundreds of dead Ukrainian soldiers in the Ilovaysky cauldron. Five years have passed, and no conclusions have been drawn from this tragedy. If we talk about Kravchenko, then he is hardly interested in ending the hostilities. He has a personal motive - in his anti-terrorist operation his nephew died. I’m not sure that such people should be appointed to leadership positions, ”a source in the“ Servant of the People ”emphasized.

“There is nothing to talk with Zelensky”

Meanwhile, Zelensky expects to discuss the situation in the Donbass within the framework of the “Norman Four”. On the evening of August 6, he called on leaders of the participating countries in the format of Emanuel Macron (France), Angela Merkel (Germany) and Vladimir Putin (Russia) "to get together as soon as possible to resume negotiations."

However, Paris and Moscow have not yet responded to Zelensky’s request. Ulrike Demmer, Germany’s deputy government spokeswoman, said Berlin couldn’t announce meetings of Norman leaders.

On August 7, the President of Ukraine held telephone conversations with his Russian counterpart, and later with the French president. According to Zelensky, he called on Vladimir Putin to influence the militia, which allegedly conducts fire at the positions of the Armed Forces.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s statement said that Vladimir Putin drew the attention of the Ukrainian leader to the need to exclude further shelling of the Ukrainian armed forces in Donbass’s settlements, "leading to civilian casualties." The Russian and Ukrainian presidents also discussed prospects for cooperation in the Norman format. However, the Kremlin did not inform of any arrangements for the meeting.

According to Alexander Dudchak, a meeting in the Norman format is unlikely to take place in the near future. According to the political scientist, there is no significant reason for this. Moreover, prior to the formation of the government, Zelensky could not fully control the power block and the country's Foreign Ministry.

“By and large, now with Zelensky there is nothing to talk about. With a high degree of probability, the meeting will not take place at least until October, until the composition of the government is settled. Zelensky, in principle, acts inconsistently. It is noteworthy that as soon as the aggravation occurred in the Donbass, he “forgot” about his desire to expand the Norman format at the expense of the USA and Great Britain and immediately called Putin, ”said Dudchak.

Rostislav Ishchenko supports the opinion of a colleague. According to him, Russia, France and Germany often do not see significant topics for discussion in the Norman format due to the lack of constructive proposals for the implementation of the Minsk agreements by Kiev.