“Preparing for withdrawal from the treaty”: why the US is proposing to expand the number of participants in START III

The United States proposes to extend the Russian-American Treaty on Measures to Further Reduce and Limit Strategic Offensive Arms (START III), but at the same time expand the number of participating countries. This is stated in a joint statement adopted following the 29th annual consultations of US and Australian ministers on August 4 in Sydney.

The consultations were attended by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Pentagon CEO Mark Esper, as well as Australian Foreign and Defense Ministers Maris Payne and Linda Reynolds.

“The heads of departments reaffirmed the need for a transition to a new era of arms control, which envisages expanding the circle of states and weapons systems covered by the agreements under discussion (START-III. - RT ), as well as strengthening efforts to reduce nuclear risks," the statement emphasizes. .

It calls on Russia and China to join the United States "in their quest for a future-oriented arms control agenda."

START III was concluded for a ten-year term in 2010 by the then presidents of Russia and the United States, Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama. Both countries pledged, in particular, to reduce their nuclear arsenals and not increase them to a level of more than 1,550 warheads. The number of ballistic missiles deployed, both intercontinental and submarines, strategic bombers, should not exceed 700 units. START III limited the number of launchers for ballistic missiles and heavy bombers. The deployment of strategic offensive weapons outside the national territory of the two countries was completely prohibited.

The agreement entered into force on February 5, 2011, and expires on February 5, 2021. If it is not renewed after this date, the restrictions laid down in it will lose force.

Renewal problem

The extension of START III was discussed at the talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, which were held as part of the G20 summit in Osaka. At the final press conference, the Russian president announced that both leaders had instructed their foreign ministries to start consultations on the expiring agreement.

• Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov
• RIA News
• © Mikhail Voskresensky

“Whether these consultations will lead to the extension of the START III treaty, I don’t know yet, it’s too early to say,” the Kremlin’s press service quotes Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At a briefing on August 5, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced that START III could be extended, moreover, not only for five years, as provided for in this treaty, but also for a shorter period.

“Legal technology allows this,” the diplomat emphasized.

A complete rejection of the extension will have unfortunate consequences, given the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the deputy minister said.

“As for START III, it would be an even more serious blow to the international security system if it could not be extended beyond February 5, 2021,” Ryabkov said.

He recalled that to date, the extension of the contract is hindered by the US position. In February of this year, when the target date for the implementation of START III came, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the Americans had actually evaded the fulfillment of their obligations. The United States unilaterally withdrew from the treaty the 56 launchers of ballistic missiles of the submarines Trident-II and 41 heavy bomber B-52H, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. Ryabov pointed out that this problem has not been resolved so far.

Meanwhile, on July 31, US presidential aide John Bolton, speaking to reporters in Washington, said the extension of START III was unlikely, making it clear that the final decision on the fate of the White House treaty had not yet been made.

According to the director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States, Yuri Rogulev, the position of the United States is not clear. So far no official proposals have been received from Washington regarding the future of START III, the expert recalled in an interview with RT.

Election factor

The expansion of the number of parties to the arms limitation treaty does not contradict its spirit and meets the requirements of critics of this Russian-American agreement, but it should not be an end in itself, experts emphasize.

“For Russia, it doesn’t matter how many participants there are. The main thing is the content of the document, ”said Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Research, in an interview with RT.

At the same time, he emphasized that China, which was mentioned in the Australian-American statement, had already announced that it was not going to join START III.

• Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and US President Barack Obama during START III signing ceremony on April 8, 2010
• RIA News
• © Dmitry Astakhov

“If the United States introduces a new component into those agreements that already exist, then they must operate on the facts. In this case, China must agree to join START III. If there is no such agreement, then it turns out that there is only a search for an excuse for not fulfilling an existing agreement, ”says Bruter.

In his opinion, at present, START III needs only to be extended, not revised, and not to expand the number of participating countries. The bilateral format of this document is explained by the fact that the United States and Russia possess the largest arsenals of strategic offensive weapons, Bruter notes.

“Theoretically, France and Great Britain can join the agreement. But I cannot make a multilateral treaty out of START III. Who else could join him? Perhaps India, Iran, Israel. However, they have few strategic offensive weapons, so they cannot reduce them on such a scale as Russia and the USA, ”Bruter noted.

The expert believes that the proposal to expand the range of START III participants is designed for world public opinion and is "PR preparation for the US withdrawing from this treaty."

“But, I think that until November 2020, before the presidential election in the United States, Washington will not take any action,” Rogulev said.

In the event of the defeat of Trump in the presidential election and the victory of the candidate from the US Democrats, they are likely to remain in START III, the expert believes.

Bruter, on the contrary, believes that the position of the Democrats regarding this treaty has not yet been determined.

“There is a statement by Democratic Party leader Joe Biden that he, if elected president, will keep START III. Let me remind you that Trump during his election campaign in 2016 also promised to get along with Russia, ”said the expert.

Democrats as a whole are focused on those circles of the US business elite who believe that the country does not need a sharp increase in spending on the military-industrial complex. But this does not mean that if the candidate from this party wins, Washington’s position on the issue of strategic offensive arms will certainly be softened, Bruter believes.

A powerful factor in favor of limiting the “hawks” in favor of the US withdrawing from START III is that there are essentially no other documents restricting the arms race, Rogulev notes.

“It is unlikely that this situation can suit Russia and America,” the expert summed up.