The Indian Army and Air Force are on high alert, and security measures have been tightened in New Delhi, ANI News reported. Such actions were taken by the country's authorities after the initiative to abolish the special status of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, which is enshrined in article 370 of the republic’s constitution, came into parliament.

On Monday, August 5, the bill was introduced by Indian Interior Minister Amit Shah. According to the document, instead of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, two allied territories should be formed. The first is the historical region of Ladakh (the name “Small Tibet” is found in the media) with a predominantly Buddhist population and the second is Jammu and Kashmir, where Muslims live mainly.

“India will cut back on Kashmir’s autonomy, although Jammu and Kashmir will retain their legislature (local legislature. - RT ). This is a government initiative. True, there is no final decision. The amendment to the constitution must be approved by parliament, ”Tatyana Shaumyan, head of the Center for Indian Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to RT.

In her opinion, parliament will support the abolition of Article 370: the upper house of the parliament (Council of States) voted in support of the bill.

Recall that the party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi “Bharatiya Janata Party” (BJP) is the ruling political force in India. She won the election in May, gaining 288 out of 543 seats in parliament. Also, the right-wing party Rashtria Swayamsevak Sangh approved the bill on the elimination of Kashmir’s special status, issuing a statement.

There are currently 29 states and 7 union territories in India. There are a number of specific privileges for Jammu and Kashmir. In particular, the state has its own constitution, and some of the bills passed by the federal authorities must be approved by the local legislature. Jammu and Kashmir are headed by the president (in other states - the governor), elected by local deputies for five years.

However, despite the privileges, the state does not have the right to decide on any administrative-territorial changes, withdraw from the state, or discuss decisions of the federal center in the field of defense and foreign policy.

Kashmir is a disputed territory between India and Pakistan. State affiliation has repeatedly become an occasion for armed conflict between neighboring states. Now New Delhi controls 60% of the territory of Kashmir, 40% - Islamabad. At the same time, India does not officially recognize the claims of Pakistan. In its constitution, the territory of Kashmir, under the rule of Islamabad, is called "occupied".

  • The wreckage of an Indian Air Force fighter shot down on February 27, 2019
  • AFP

Another exacerbation of the situation around Kashmir occurred at the beginning of this year. On February 14, in the city of Pulwama, 45 Indian soldiers became victims of a suicide bombing by a suicide bomber. The Islamist group Jaish-e-Muhammad (“Muhammad’s Army.” - RT ), located primarily in Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack.

Narendra Modi accused Islamabad of involvement in the attack and said that "the time for negotiations has passed." On February 26, Indian aircraft attacked Islamist infrastructure. In response, on February 27, Pakistani fighters flew over Indian military installations, simulating their bombardment.

On the same day, a battle ensued between the air forces of the two countries, as a result of which India lost two aircraft. The Pakistanis captured the commander of the Indian air wing Abhinandan Wartaman. On land, Pakistani and Indian troops exchanged several artillery attacks.

However, both sides did not allow the escalation of the conflict. The symbolic gesture that marked the beginning of the truce was the transfer of a captured Indian pilot to New Delhi. On March 5, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said tensions with New Delhi had subsided.

"One-way steps"

According to NDTV, at present, the transfer of eight thousand Indian troops has begun in Kashmir. The contingent should strengthen the 35,000th group, which is already deployed in the state. Security officials also detained two former chief ministers of Kashmir Mehboob Mufti (2016-2018) and Omar Abdullah (2009—2015). The leader of the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference, Sajjad Lone, was placed under house arrest.

“It is very likely that media reports about an increase in the number of security forces in Kashmir and the strengthening of security measures in India are true. Delhi fears riots, provocations and sabotage. Kashmir is a disputed territory with a Muslim majority and radical groups, ”Tatyana Shaumyan recalled.

The intention of the Government of India to abolish the current status of Kashmir provoked a sharp reaction from Islamabad, which also considers the region to be “occupied” territory. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry condemned New Delhi and demanded that article 370 of the constitution be retained. According to the Pakistani newspaper The News, Islamabad intends to file a complaint against India with the UN International Court of Justice.

“The unilateral steps taken by the Government of India cannot change this status ... Pakistan, as a participant in an international dispute, uses all options to counter these illegal steps,” the statement said.

  • Protests in India after the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir
  • Reuters
  • © Anushree Fadnavis

As Tatyana Shaumyan explained, New Delhi and Islamabad look very differently at resolving the controversial situation around Kashmir. Any decisions regarding his status are a priori perceived as a challenge to the territorial integrity and security of both states.

“The Government of India believes that it has every right to act at its discretion. In part, this logic can be understood if we look at the situation from the perspective of Hindu nationalism, that is, the Modi party that won the election. Perhaps Delhi wants to equate Kashmir with the rest of the states, turning it into a typical region of the country. But Pakistan, which fought for Kashmir, has a different view, and therefore it speaks of “occupation,” Shaumyan said.

She recalled that the situation in Kashmir has remained explosive for the past 70 years. At the same time, the expert doubts that the current situation will develop into a large-scale armed conflict, but allows a surge of radical sentiment among the Muslims of the region.

A similar point of view is held by the doctor of historical sciences, professor of MGIMO Sergey Lunev. In his opinion, unrest may begin in Kashmir. The expert also suggests that the abolition of article 370 of the constitution is likely to be the reason for the attacks, by radical Islamic groups.

“It’s most likely that it will not reach a direct clash between Pakistani and Indian troops, but the security situation in India may worsen. First of all, Indian soldiers will be at risk of militant attacks. However, I would not draw far-reaching conclusions. The decision by the Indian Parliament has not yet. In addition, the ruling BJP previously did not allow excesses in politics towards Muslims, ”summed up Lunev.