Unsurprisingly, global warming has reinforced the heatwave that occurred in Europe in July. Without climate change due to human activities, the temperatures recorded in Western Europe at the end of July would have been "about 1.5 ° to 3 ° C lower," say researchers at the World Weather Attribution Network, whose calculations were published on Friday, August 2nd.
Temperature records were broken in several countries during this brief but intense heat wave: 42.6 ° C in Paris and Lingen, Germany, 41.8 ° C in Begijnendijk, northern Belgium, and 40.4 ° C in the south of the Netherlands. Unprecedented temperatures were also reached in the United Kingdom, with 38.7 ° C in Cambridge.
A probability "multiplied by ten"
The scientists took as reference the three hottest consecutive days during this hot episode. For France, by combining different models, scientists estimate that "the probability of such an event occurring has been multiplied by at least ten," according to their report.
"Such an event would have had an extremely low probability of occurring" without climate change in France, says the study. Regarding the heat wave that hit the Hexagon end of June, scientists had already calculated that it had been made "at least five times more likely" than if the man had not altered the climate.
>> Read also: The month of June 2019 was the hottest in recorded history in the world
Figures expected early August
The excess mortality figures for the heat wave episode of June are expected at the beginning of August. Those for the heat wave of late July should be made public back to school.
The last two heat waves have also disrupted rail transport in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom because of brush fires along the tracks or damage to infrastructure by extreme heat. .
The heat also reinforces the problem of drought and the risk of leaving a forest fire or thatch. In France, for example, 79 departments are affected by water restrictions.
Heat waves to multiply
These heat waves are expected to multiply and intensify under the effect of global warming. Over the past 2,000 years, global temperatures have never risen so rapidly, according to data released in late July in two separate studies in Nature and Nature Geoscience.
June 2019 was also the hottest June ever recorded in the world, particularly because of the exceptional heat wave in Europe. July could be similar and break the July 2016 record, according to preliminary data from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service and the World Meteorological Organization.