"Stabilization is not foreseen": what could a possible reduction in the US military contingent in Afghanistan?

The White House plans to reduce the US military contingent in Afghanistan from 14 thousand to 8-9 thousand troops as a concession to the Taliban, if its leaders agree to begin direct negotiations with official Kabul. About this with reference to sources in the US administration reported the publication The Washington Post. In addition, under the terms of Washington, the Taliban must break any ties with al-Qaeda ** and cease fire.

According to the newspaper, this plan was developed as a result of negotiations between the leaders of the Taliban and the US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, which lasted for the past months. According to the newspaper, an agreement can be reached in the fall. At the same time, Taliban spokesman Zabiulla Mojahed refused to comment on the possibility of such a deal.

The fact that the White House is going to reduce the military contingent in Afghanistan, on the eve said the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The head of the State Department said that Donald Trump had ordered a reduction in the number of US military in Afghanistan.

“End the endless war. Reduce the intensity. Reduce the contingent. Let it not be us, ”said Pompeo at a meeting of the Economic Club in Washington.

According to the Secretary of State, the withdrawal of part of the troops was due not only to Trump’s desire, but to objective prerequisites, since the region’s need for a US military presence has decreased.

• Zalmay Khalilzad
• Reuters
• © Omar Sobhani

In turn, according to sources in The Washington Post, it is likely that the Taliban may refuse to break ties with Al-Qaeda or oppose the Islamic State. ***

"Nevertheless, the authorities may agree to a partial withdrawal of troops [from Afghanistan], which will open up opportunities for further negotiations and contribute to the continuation of the counter-terrorist operation even in the context of a politically unattainable status quo," the article notes.

Now four issues are on the agenda - the possibility of political dialogue inside Afghanistan, guarantees in the sphere of combating terrorism, the withdrawal of troops and the introduction of a comprehensive ceasefire regime. As Khalilzad stated earlier, the parties were able to reach agreement on the fight against terrorism and the withdrawal of the contingent. However, a deal can be concluded only after the parties have reached agreement on all items.

As Natalia Khanova, an expert at the Center for Contemporary Studies in Afghanistan, noted in a conversation with RT, accurate data on the current strength of the American contingent in Afghanistan are not published in open sources, so it’s difficult to say how much it can be reduced.

Political analyst Andrei Serenko, in an interview with RT, did not rule out that, in addition to public dialogue, the parties are holding backstage talks in which, in addition to the Taliban and the US, the Pakistani side can participate.

“Self-justification for failure”

Recall that Donald Trump also stated the need to withdraw some of the military from Afghanistan.

“Afghanistan cannot be solved by military means ... We hope that in the coming days we will be able to call on the Taliban to negotiate.”

Negotiations between the American side and the Taliban have been going on for several months. Moreover, the Taliban refuse to engage in dialogue with the official authorities of Afghanistan before the principal agreements with Washington are reached, since they consider the Afghan government to be dependent on the United States.

At the same time, the situation in the region remains tense. On the eve of Afghanistan killed two US troops. This was reported by the command of the operation “Resolute support”, without specifying the details of the incident.

• Afghan Taliban
• AFP
• © JAVED TANVEER

Since the beginning of the US military operation in Afghanistan, a total of 2.4 thousand American soldiers were killed, another 20 thousand were injured - The Washington Post cites such statistics as referring to the Pentagon.

Attacks on the civilian population continue unabated: in early July, an explosion in the Afghan city of Ganzi hit 179 people, most of them women and children. Responsibility for the attack claimed the Taliban.

According to Natalia Khanova, extremists continue to conduct terrorist activities in order to show that they are able to negotiate from a position of strength.

“They really see that, despite the threats and terrorist acts, no one adequately opposes them, and negotiations continue,” Khanova said in an interview with RT.

Andrey Serenko holds a similar point of view. According to him, the Taliban are increasing their activity, because they perceive the readiness of the United States for negotiations as weakness.

“The Taliban interprets these negotiations as a victory and uses all means to demonstrate that the United States does not enter into a dialogue of its own accord, but under pressure,” the expert explained.

Recall that last month Donald Trump said that Washington could have completed the Afghan campaign in its favor in just a week, but the US authorities do not go for it to avoid the many civilian casualties.

“If we wanted to fight the war in Afghanistan and win it, I could have won it in a week. I just don’t want to kill 10 million people, ”Trump said before starting talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan.

Therefore, the US side gives preference to the diplomatic means of resolving the conflict, Trump added, calling on Islamabad to support the United States in this.

"Trump's statement can be interpreted as self-justification for failures," said Natalia Khanova. “This is an attempt, in turn, to present our position as a position of power.”

Moreover, more than half of Americans believe that the Afghan military campaign turned out to be a failure for the United States. These results were demonstrated by a survey conducted by the US Pew Research Center. The majority - 59% - of respondents said that Washington lost more as a result of the operation in Afghanistan than it received. A similar answer was given by 58% of survey participants from among former military personnel.

• Donald trump
• Reuters
• © Bryan Woolston

Vicious circle

Recall that the United States began striking the territory of Afghanistan in 2001 after the Taliban refused to hand over Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden to the Americans. At the same time, the Taliban were driven out of Kabul and several other cities. However, the coalition failed to completely destroy the Taliban: the group entrenched itself in remote Afghan provinces, while the capital and other major cities became areas controlled by the United States and the new government of the country.

The situation worsened after the Islamic State appeared on the military-political map of the Middle East and Central Asia.

Headed the White House after Bush, Barack Obama has repeatedly stated the need to return American soldiers and officers from Afghanistan to their homes. To this end, it was planned to strengthen the Afghan government forces, to protect the peaceful population of Afghanistan from the Taliban attacks and to cut the ground from under the feet of Al-Qaeda. In 2011, Obama announced the beginning of the withdrawal of the American contingent from the Central Asian country.

• US Army soldiers near Kandahar, Afghanistan, 2001
• Reuters

However, the emergence of the IG in the region forced the White House to revise this strategy. In addition, at about the same time, the Taliban also became more active in the region - moreover, they not only entered into battle with rival groups, but also began to seize new areas.

During his election campaign, Donald Trump called for the withdrawal of the US military from Afghanistan. But in practice, already in 2017, he allowed the Pentagon to expand its forces in the region.

Experts doubt that Washington will go in the foreseeable future to a significant reduction in US troops in Afghanistan. Although both the American leadership and the Taliban are ready to make concessions, their final goals are diametrically different: the Taliban intends to regain political power in Afghanistan, which is unacceptable for Washington.

As Natalia Khanova explained, although now the Taliban no longer require the complete and final withdrawal of American troops, they insist on a phased reduction of the contingent. At the same time, according to the expert, the United States can withdraw no more than a thousand soldiers from the country.

“A complete withdrawal of troops will mean the seizure of power in the country by the Taliban - this is the main risk for the official Afghan government and for the United States. And this is certainly not in the interests of the international community. Therefore, in the near future, stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan is not expected. ”

This point of view is shared by Andrei Serenko. According to him, whatever the parties now agree on, the Taliban will still continue to fight against American forces in the region. Therefore, the withdrawal of a significant portion of the US contingent will put at risk the remaining troops.

“Even if an agreement is signed, it will not bring peace to Afghanistan. The Taliban will not ease the pressure on the Afghan government forces, because the Taliban do not need peace, but power, ”the expert concluded.

* “Taliban” - the organization is recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.

** Al-Qaida is an organization recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.

*** "Islamic State" (IG, ISIL) - the organization is recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 2014.