"The campaign turned out to be chaotic": the Zelensky party leads in the early elections to the Verkhovna Rada

Preliminary data from the Central Election Committee of Ukraine (CEC) and several exit polls show that the “Servant of the People” party, Vladimir Zelensky, won the early elections to the Verkhovna Rada (BP). She confidently leads after processing 5.37% of protocols. Next come the Opposition Platform - For Life, Batkivshchyna, European Solidarity, Golos and the Radical Party.

According to the results of the National exit poll organized by the Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Studies, Alexander Razumkov, the Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, the Servant of the People received 43.9% of the vote. In the second place is the Opposition Platform - For Life, by Yuriy Boyko, Vadim Rabinovich and Viktor Medvedchuk, who scored 11.5%.

“European solidarity” Petro Poroshenko gained the support of 8.9% of the vote, “Batkivschyna” of Yulia Tymoshenko - 7.6%. In BP, according to the same exit poll, the party “Voice” of the singer Svyatoslav Vakarchuk passes. She was supported by 6.3% of voters.

It is worth noting that, according to preliminary surveys, the “Voice” was on the verge of a five percent barrier. For the rest, the exit poll results almost coincided with election sociology. According to all polls, the “Servant of the People” party was the undisputed leader during this election campaign. Her rating a week ago declined somewhat, but on the eve of the elections grew again, noted Ukrainian sociologists.

Before the “day of silence”, the sociological services of Ukraine published the data of public opinion polls concerning electoral preferences of voters. The Social Monitoring Center gave the Servant of the People 42.5%, the Rating group 49.5%. According to a Razumkov Center poll, 35.4% of all respondents and 44.4% of those who intend to take part in the vote and have already made their choice, were ready to vote for the party of the Ukrainian president.

In addition to the "Servant of the People" in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukrainian sociologists argued, at least three parties had to pass, and their rating was almost equal.

Thus, according to the Razumkov Center, on the eve of the elections, 10.7% of all voters and 13.3% among those who made up their choice were ready to cast their votes for the Opposition Platform - For Life. 6.7% and 8.5% respectively were going to vote for “Batkivschyna”. The party of the former president of Petro Poroshenko - “European Solidarity” - was going to be supported by 5.8% and 7.5% of voters.

“The exit poll results can be described as predictable. The only thing that is in question is getting into the Voice party. She lost her support before the elections, and in general there was not much time for the buildup, ”said Bogdan Bezpalko, member of the Council for Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, in an interview with RT.

Question of attendance

The Central Election Commission of Ukraine reported that the voting was calm, without serious excesses. Ukrainian parties were also pleased with the election results. Not a single political force has declared mass fraud.

According to the press service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine on Facebook, the agency received 2105 appeals and allegations of irregularities in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada. 504 of them are connected with illegal campaigning, 74 - with the bribery of voters, 67 - with violations of electoral legislation, 46 - with conflicts, 38 - with photographing ballots, 31 - with spoiling ballots, 26 - with reports of mining sites.

In turn, the RT source in the Self-Help Party stated that there were no significant irregularities in the elections. Most of the questions have arisen to the majority districts, where some influential businessmen and deputies have worked closely in recent months, the source emphasized.

“Voters were given gifts, supported by members of the commissions. All these cases, the police have not studied, but in vain. The one who has invested the most in the election campaign will win, ”the source said, adding that, in his opinion, the elections cannot be called fair and adequately reflect the mood of Ukrainians.

• Polling station
• AFP
• © Yuri DYACHYSHYN

It should also be noted that voter turnout was relatively low. According to preliminary estimates by the CEC of Ukraine data for all 199 districts, it was 49.84%. This is lower than in the presidential elections held in the spring of 2019. Then it exceeded 60%. Low rates are explained by the relatively low activity of residents of the south-east of Ukraine. For example, as of 20:00 Moscow time, 45.71% of voters voted in the part of the Donetsk region controlled by Kiev.

“In fact, none of these political parties could win unconditional trust from Russian-speaking voters, from people who are oriented towards restoring relations with Russia and resolving the conflict in Donbass,” explained the result in a conversation with RT director of the Research Institute for Peace-Making Initiatives and Conflictology Denis Denisov.

A number of experts note that the unsuccessful date of the vote has played its role.

“The appointment of elections for the second half of July is an initially disastrous plan. Many Ukrainians went on vacation or just tired of all the choices. Therefore, the turnout is relatively small, “- said the source RT in the Radical Party. In his opinion, the youth did not come to the elections, first of all, the youth, which had a bad effect on the results of the forces oriented towards young voters, first of all, the Golos political union.

HSE professor, political scientist Oleg Matveychev believes that the elections were held just at the right time, but only from the point of view of the President of Ukraine.

“Vladimir Zelensky acted as French leader Emmanuel Macron. Immediately after the triumphant victory in the presidential elections, while the people were not disappointed in him, he achieved early parliamentary elections. The ongoing “honeymoon” with voters, when they still have hopes for change with Zelensky, allowed him to elect his deputies to the parliament and create a faction, ”said Matveychev in an interview with RT.

Matveychev stressed that the voters who supported the “Servant of the People”, in fact, once again voted for Zelensky. At the same time, many members of the electoral list remain virtually unknown for Ukrainians, the expert stressed.

In turn, Bogdan Bezpalko noted that the role of the main oppositionist would try to stake out Poroshenko’s party.

“The voters of“ European solidarity ”, in fact, are that small, but very united and aggressive part of the Ukrainian population, which supports nationalist ideas. They voted for Poroshenko in the presidential election, ”he said.

According to a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, in this situation, the former head of the Ukrainian state was also able to use the results of the presidential elections in parliamentary elections.

“Poroshenko will present himself as the main oppositionist in Ukraine, will criticize the current government in every way and, moreover, will not bear any responsibility for this,” he said.

According to the expert, the ex-president of Ukraine will primarily criticize Zelensky for his policy towards Russia. Here, any step of the head of state will be treated as treason, says Bezpalko.

Contours of the future crisis

Experts explain the confident victory of the “Servant of the People” by the specifics of the moment. According to them, in the future, new early elections and a split within this party are possible.

According to Oleg Matveychev, the elections were held in extreme conditions, when the command-administrative system created by Poroshenko is going through a scrapping stage, and a new one is not created.

“In this sense, the election campaign was very chaotic. And all political players tried to exert influence on her, ”noted Matveychev.

• Vladimir Zelensky votes
• Reuters
• © Valentyn Ogirenko

According to him, regardless of the election results, it’s impossible to say that one political force won. The confident victory of the “Servant of the People” gives Zelensky a lot of credibility for the reforms, the political scientist added.

However, the election results laid the foundation for the future conflict in the party, experts say.

“The party“ Servant of the People ”is very diverse, there are many different centers of influence. I think in six months a tough conflict will begin inside her. The previous parliament worked thanks to the “agreement”. Zelensky opposes such a system, but did not propose an alternative. Therefore, I would not be surprised if this composition of the Rada will have to be dissolved early, ”the RT source in the Batkivshchyna party explained.

About the unwillingness to be obedient executors of the presidential will speak in the party "Servant of the people."

“If Zelensky believes that he can dictate terms to us and demand voting for the appointment of scandalous people to high posts, then he is mistaken. After the formation of the new parliament, the deputies will insist on the dismissal of Andrei Bogdan from the post of head of the president’s office, ”the interlocutor of RT in the“ Servant of the People ”believes.

He also noted that in the party, many do not like the outbreak of the Zelensky war with Poroshenko.

“You do not need to solve your problems at the expense of the votes of ordinary citizens,” said the source.

Another test for the president’s supporters will be negotiations on the creation of a parliamentary majority, analysts say.

Earlier, Zelensky invited Svyatoslav Vakarchuk to discuss the creation of a coalition in the Verkhovna Rada. The “Novoye Vremya” publication quotes the leader of Golos that all questions about the coalition will need to be asked when the configuration of all the forces in parliament is determined and the points of the coalition agreement are outlined.

“Because, I remind you, a coalition is created not because someone likes someone, but because there are certain points of the coalition agreement that all participants are ready to sign and for which they are ready to bear responsibility, and which they consider to be right for changes in the country, ”he said.

As the source in the “Servant of the People” stressed, a conflict will start in the party if the “Opposition Platform - For Life” enters into a coalition with it.

The candidacy of the Prime Minister will also cause big disputes. The president had previously stated that, in his opinion, the head of government should be “an absolutely independent person,” who had never been prime minister, speaker of parliament, or leader of any faction. Moreover, according to him, he is already “holding consultations” on this account.

“Zelensky’s statements that he is already discussing some issues with the candidate for prime minister are surprising,” said an RT source in the European Solidarity party.

In his opinion, it’s not the president who will decide who will become the prime minister - this issue will be decided in the course of lengthy and difficult negotiations.

“The servant of the people” will not receive an absolute majority in parliament and will probably unite with “Batkivschyna” and “Golos” if the Vakarchuk party gets 5%. So Yulia Tymoshenko will still have her say. The composition in the party "Servant of the People" is also heterogeneous, and many deputies will not vote at the request of the office of the president. We are in for a lot of scandals, ”the interlocutor concluded.