The political experience of the ex-Minister of Defense of Germany, Ursula von der Lyayen, who will replace Jean-Claude Juncker at the head of the European Commission on November 1, 2019, was the main reason for her appointment to this post, analysts say. Experts remind that one of the main tasks in the framework of the new EU strategy is to create a European army, and the candidate von der Lyayen in Brussels was considered the most suitable for this purpose. At the same time, the choice of the new head of the EC was unexpected for a number of European politicians - some of them were extremely disappointed with the results of voting in the European Parliament.

Thus, the leader of the Brexit Party, Nigel Faraj, said that Europe, as represented by von der Lyayen, is characterized by such a strong centralization of power that national parliaments will lose any significance. According to the British politician, we are talking about "open encroachment on the concept of a democratic state."

“The expectations were not justified”

Note that von der Lyayen will be the first woman to occupy this post. Before taking office, she will form a Commission of the leaders of the EU member states. Then the new EC will have to approve the European Parliament.

"The elected chairman of the European Commission will send official letters to the heads of the institutional EU or their governments with a proposal to nominate their candidates for the members of the European Commission," says the EP website.

It is worth noting that the candidacy of von der Lyayen was approved after lengthy and stormy discussions. The EU emergency summit on June 30, designed to push EU leaders to compromise, ended with a zero result. And only two days later, the heads of state and government of the union decided to nominate a German representative for the post of chairman of the main EU institution.

“Her candidacy appeared only at the moment when it became clear that the head of the European People’s Party, Manfred Weber, would not be able to become chairman - French President Emmanuel Macron and a number of other EU heads of state opposed him,” said the deputy head of the Center for German Studies, Yekaterina Timoshenkova, Leading Researcher, Institute of Europe, RAS.

In her opinion, the German ex-minister could well have failed to go through the stage of voting in the EP.

“The chances that the candidature of von der Lyayen will be approved was not very much, however, her election speech influenced the outcome of the electoral process. At the same time, the results of the elections in the European Parliament once again prove that no matter what candidates the parliament may propose, the Franco-German tandem still retains a decisive voice in the distribution of key posts in the EU, ”the analyst believes.

Timoshenkova explained that many politicians, including German ones, were not satisfied with the candidacy of von der Lyayen, since she was nominated to bypass the principle of the “main candidate” (Spitzenkandidat) - when the leader of the EC automatically takes over as head of the EC.

“The expectations of European voters and parties did not come true - a person was chosen at the key position in the EU, about whose candidacy no one had previously agreed. In addition, von der Lyayen is not a unifying figure, which causes associations with the unity of Europe, ”the analyst stated.

In turn, the head of the Department of Social and Political Studies of the Institute of Europe, RAS, Vladimir Schweitzer, in an interview with RT, suggested that the gender aspect also played a role in choosing the new head of the European Commission.

  • Former head of the German Defense Ministry Ursula von der Lyayen
  • Reuters
  • © Vincent Kessler

“Von der Läijen’s candidacy was also approved because the issue of gender equality plays a very large role in EU institutions,” the expert explained.

However, in his opinion, the results of voting in the EP for the candidacy for the post of the European Commission indicate that the ex-minister of Germany hardly passed this electoral stage. Recall, 383 deputies voted for the appointment of von der Lyayen, 327 voted against, 22 abstained.

"German Social Democrats said earlier that they would not support it, and this played a role," said the analyst, according to whom von der Lyayen will not be easy to form a European Commission.

“She will have to take into account the gender aspect, as well as how experienced this or that ministerial candidate is. At the same time, the option is not excluded that the members of the commission will not go through the stage of voting in the EP, ”the expert predicted.

According to Ekaterina Timoshenkova, the former German minister “will always have to find compromise solutions.”

"The combination of experience in the defense and social spheres"

In her opening speech at the plenary meeting of the European Parliament, Ursula von der Lyayen outlined the main directions of her activity in the event of her being elected to the post of President of the European Commission.

“In the next five years, Europe should pay more attention to ecology and work for the benefit of its citizens. I want an economically strong Europe with digital technology and a vibrant democracy, ”the former minister said.

First of all, she made her proposals on climate - in her opinion, by 2050 Europe should become “the first climate neutral continent in the world.” Von der Lyayen also touched upon topical social issues - reducing unemployment, monitoring children's rights and gender equality.

In addition, the German explained her position in the defense sphere. She stressed that the cornerstone of the collective security of the European Union "will always be NATO", but at the same time it is important for Brussels to pursue its own political course.

However, the most attention von der Lyayen paid to migration issues.

“I will propose a new version of the Immigration and Asylum Pact, including, in particular, the re-launch of the reform of the Dublin system. This will allow us to restore full freedom of movement within the Schengen zone, which is the basis of our prosperity, security and freedom, ”said von der Leyen.

In this case, the central element of the transformation, in her opinion, will be to increase the effectiveness of the European Border Guard and Coast Guard.

“The number of its permanent contingent should be increased to 10 thousand people not by 2027, but much earlier - at least by 2024,” the politician believes.

  • EC Headquarters in Brussels
  • Reuters
  • © Yves Herman

According to von der Lyayen, the reliability of the external borders can be maintained only with sufficient support from the EU member states experiencing the greatest pressure due to their geographical location.

“We need to find a new way to share this burden. A proposal for mutually beneficial cooperation should be sent to the countries of origin and transit, ”the former minister noted.

Ekaterina Timoshenkova believes that in this matter, as in the creation of a European army, the political experience of von der Leyen, who previously headed not only the German Defense Ministry, but also held the position of Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, would be highly relevant.

“The emphasis was just that a combination of experience in the defense and social spheres would help it to deal with the challenges that the EU is facing now,” says Timoshenkova.

In her opinion, stating the need to strengthen external borders, von der Lyayen intended to demonstrate that on the one hand she is a European politician, and on the other she is ready to compromise with the forces that criticize her.

In turn, Vladimir Schweitzer believes that the rhetoric of von der Lyayen’s intention to strengthen the borders of the EU is a political move designed to position it as a strong politician.

“So far this is only a conversation that should be considered a propaganda ploy. The ex-minister of the Federal Republic of Germany is playing this game, because in Europe she is not yet a well-known politician, and now she wants to be noticed, ”explained Schweitzer.

  • European Border Guard and Coast Guard Officers
  • Reuters
  • © Alessandro Bianchi

He also recalled that Ursula von der Lyayen, being on the post of the head of the German Defense Ministry, more than once fell under a barrage of criticism. In particular, she was accused of unsatisfactory military-technical equipment of the Bundeswehr.

The reputation of the minister also suffered after a scandal involving the involvement of outside consultants in the work of the German defense ministry. In 2018, the Berlin Prosecutor’s Office began a pre-investigation inquiry on suspicion that the contracts with these specialists were concluded out of competition and not on favorable terms. In January, the Bundestag decided to create a commission to clarify the circumstances of the case - the final results of the investigation have not yet been made public.

In addition, as Schweitzer underlines, von der Lyayen’s promises to create a permanent contingent of the European Border Guard and Coast Guard are contrary to the interests of Washington in Europe, which opposes such transformations and requires more substantial investments in the budget of the North Atlantic Alliance.

“Trump will never agree to that. It is also worth considering that the Europeans still want to isolate their policies from Washington, the conflict between Brussels and Washington will be inevitable, ”Schweitzer believes.

Russian agenda

Analysts believe that with the arrival of Ursula von der Lyayen on the post of head of the European Commission, the course of Brussels with respect to Moscow may become tougher.

Former Minister of the Ministry of Defense of Germany has repeatedly acted with harsh criticism of the Russian Federation. In February, she announced the need to exert pressure on Russia because Moscow allegedly violated the INF.

“It’s right that NATO condemned violations of the INF Treaty by Russia and that we all are trying to preserve this treaty on the merits,” said von der Leyen during her speech at the 55th Munich Security Conference.

According to her, in response to the "increased threat of Russian weapons," a joint reaction will follow. In addition, von der Lyayen accused Russia of trying to split the unity of the EU countries on leading security issues.

Also in June 2017, the German ex-minister declared that disagreements with the Russian side should be eliminated during the negotiations “from a position of strength”.

As Ekaterina Timoshenkova notes, von der Lyayen is “extremely critical” in relation to Russia, therefore, no positive changes in the course of the EU towards the Russian Federation should be expected.

“She is in favor of an even greater rapprochement with NATO. With her, the anti-Russian rhetoric of Brussels is likely to become tougher, and maneuvers against the Russian Federation can be carried out even faster, ”Timoshenkova summed up.

  • the Moscow Kremlin
  • © Nikolay Gyngazov / Global Look Press