Although Iran continued to take more escalatory measures by announcing a new reduction in its nuclear agreement obligations by raising the level of uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent and reaching 4.5 percent, it was keen not to reject the efforts that France, in order to mediate between the two sides, evidently received by the chief adviser of French President Emmanuel Macaron, Emmanuel Bonn, on 9 and 10 July 2019, for the second time in less than three weeks. At the same time, however, it does not deny that several trends in Tehran considered that what could result from those efforts did not amount to reaching a settlement to the current crisis, as it is limited to the search for mechanisms to stop the current escalation and not push towards further action Mutual relations.

Advance messages

It was noteworthy that Iran was keen to forward messages to France and the forces concerned to continue the work of the nuclear agreement, which aimed to set limits to any outcome of the efforts of Paris, in other words to clarify the circumstances in which Iran can accept the cessation of the current escalation with the United States .

One day before Bonn's visit, Iran announced that it had increased the level of enrichment to 4.5%. It also noted that reaching 20% ​​- a rate that was close to it before reaching the nuclear agreement - is one of the options it has to deal with punitive measures that The United States continues to impose. This coincided with the Iranian escalation against Britain, against the backdrop of the British naval forces, in cooperation with the authorities of Gibraltar, on the fourth of July, the detention of an Iranian tanker destined for Syria, where Iran threatened to respond to the British step, and several reports, in 11 That some Revolutionary Guard boats attempted to intercept a British ship in the waters of the Gulf before being forced by a frigate of the Royal Navy to leave.

There is no doubt that these moves can not be separated from the statements made by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on July 12, focusing on the military capabilities of the party and on the possible consequences of any possible new war on Israel .

Here, the Iranian message is clear that further US punitive measures mean, according to Tehran, further escalation by Iran, whether in the nuclear file by additional measures to raise the level of enrichment, or increase the number of centrifuges used in enrichment or other , Or in the waters of the Gulf by suggesting their ability to target navigation security, or in the Middle East by instructing their loyal militias to move in case of an attack or a direct confrontation with the United States.

Limited options

Several trends in Tehran considered that French "ideas" focused on the minimum steps that could be taken to stop the current escalation. These "ideas" came within the framework of the so-called "Waqf against Waqf", meaning Washington stopped imposing further sanctions during the next phase, in exchange for Tehran to stop taking further steps to reduce the level of its obligations in the nuclear agreement, while working to activate the mechanism «Instex» to continue trade between Iran and European countries.

It was noteworthy that the newspaper «Kayhan» (lower), one of the closest media to the Office of the Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei, launched a strong campaign against the «ideas» French, which indicated that «include the demands of the same but in French language», saying that Paris seeks through it The first of which is to push Iran to stop taking further measures to reduce its obligations in the nuclear agreement, and secondly to launch new negotiations that include all controversial issues, not just the nuclear agreement, such as the missile program and the regional role.

At the same time, Iran has sent direct messages to Paris that relate to the ceiling on which the results of current diplomatic efforts can reach and issues that may be the subject of possible understandings. "We have no objection to the nuclear negotiations with the United States, in case all the sanctions imposed on us have been lifted," Assistant Foreign Minister Abbas Araghji said on July 7.

These statements specifically indicate that the ideas put forward by Paris for the success of its diplomatic efforts face limited options:

1. Restrict the negotiations in the "nuclear"

This means that at least in the current stage, Iran refuses to address other issues, especially with regard to its role in the region, especially in crisis countries such as Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.

France has already rejected repeated calls by Paris to enter into negotiations on the ballistic missile program, or to modify the nuclear deal to include Iran's "ideas" as a "recycling" of American demands. Items that could have direct effects on any prospects for the successful conclusion of French diplomatic efforts.

2. Lift US sanctions

Which faces the obstacle of the United States' insistence on continuing to adopt this policy and bringing it to an unprecedented level, in order to push Iran to change its attitude towards accepting new negotiations, as reflected in the statements of US President Donald Trump on July 10, "The sanctions on Iran will soon multiply," after accusing Iran of secretly enriching uranium.

In this context, it is also in line with the sanctions imposed by the US Treasury a day earlier on Hezbollah MPs Amin Shri and Mohammad Raad after accusing them of "exploiting the Lebanese political and financial system in favor of Hezbollah and Iran "In reference to Washington will adopt a parallel policy based on the siege of the sources of funding on which depend on Iran and its loyal militias.

3. Cumulative differences

There are other differences that limit the mediation roles of France or any of the other European countries. The tension between Iran and Britain has escalated recently, after the detention of the Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar, and of course received the signal of British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, in 16 Last June, to Iran's role in the sabotage operations of oil tankers in the Gulf.

On October 3, 2018, France itself imposed sanctions on a unit of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and two Iranians after being accused of plotting to target a conference organized by the Iranian opposition forces in Paris in June of the same year.

In the light of this, it can be said that the results of the French mediation efforts will affect the policies of European countries towards the current escalation between Iran and the United States, which will lead to the proximity of those countries, to a large extent, the approach pursued by Washington at the moment, Especially after Iranian positions imposed limited options in front of those efforts.

There are differences that set limits on any mediation roles played by France or any other European country. The tensions between Iran and Britain have escalated recently, after the detention of the Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar, and of course the British Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt. June 16, to the role of Iran in the sabotage operations that hit the oil tankers in the Gulf.

• It was remarkable that Iran was keen to send advance messages to France and the forces concerned, to continue the work of the nuclear agreement, which aimed to set limits to any results that may result from the efforts of Paris, in other words to clarify the circumstances in which Iran can accept the cessation of the current escalation with the States United States.