"Pre-election circumstances": whether Zelensky will continue the policy of building a dialogue with Russia

One of the main topics of the past week was the first telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s leader Vladimir Zelensky. It took place on July 11 at the initiative of Kiev.

Zelensky said that the main topic of the talks was the issue of the release of persons detained in both countries. He noted that he dealt separately with the theme of the sailors arrested after the incident in the Kerch Strait.

“We are now thoroughly leading this issue to pick up all our guys. And not only the Minsk process - the Norman process and so on. My crown will not fall from my head, because the life of the children is the most important thing. Yesterday we spoke with the president of Russia. My main question was whether they are ready to give them, ”said Zelensky.

The president said this during a meeting with the relatives of the arrested sailors in Krivoy Rog. Earlier, the press service of Zelensky noted that the release of military sailors was the “key issue” that was discussed during a telephone conversation.

“It was also about the return of other Ukrainian citizens contained in the territory of the Russian Federation. In addition, the parties discussed the continuation of negotiations in the Norman format, ”the presidential administration said.

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In turn, the press service of the Russian leader noted that during the 20-minute conversation (which was the first contact of the presidents and was “familiarizing”), the issues of resolving the situation in the south-east of Ukraine were discussed, as well as joint work on the return of retained on both sides of the faces. It was reported that Putin and Zelensky agreed to continue this work "at the level of experts."

“The conversation was quite pragmatic,” said the president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov.

The issue of Russian-Ukrainian relations was also discussed on July 12 during the operational meeting of Putin with the permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.

At the same time, Russian politicians and experts took a positive view of the conversation of the leaders in a positive manner. Thus, the head of the committee of the Federation Council on international affairs, Konstantin Kosachev, in an interview with RT, expressed the opinion that Kiev had demonstrated its readiness to resume the dialogue (since the conversation was initiated by the Ukrainian side).

“The fact of negotiations is welcome, the dialogue is always better than its absence,” said the senator.

His colleague Vladimir Dzhabarov did not rule out that such an initiative by Zelensky might be related to the upcoming parliamentary elections in Ukraine in a week. However, he also noted the positive signal that carries the contact of the two presidents.

“It is good that the conversation took place. Because any negotiations are better than their absence. Of course, one cannot deny that Mr. Zelensky has elections in a week. He needs to show that part of the electorate, which is in favor of restoring normal relations with Russia, that he is ready to go his part of the way, ”Jabarov said in an interview with the Parliamentary newspaper.

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"Demonstrates a desire for dialogue"

Commenting on the prospects for the resumption of dialogue between Moscow and Kiev, the Ukrainian political analyst and economist Oleksandr Dudchak in an interview with RT expressed the hope that Vladimir Zelensky would take real steps in this direction.

“We can assume that in a conversation with Putin, Zelensky, most likely, was quite adequate and did not allow himself what he can afford, speaking somewhere before the Ukrainian audience. One can hope that in such negotiations it will be more realistic, ”the expert said.

The interlocutor RT stated that now the task really is to free the Russians who are imprisoned in Ukraine and the Ukrainians who are detained in Russia. And in this direction you can try to take real steps, I'm sure Dudchak.

“Why not do it? When it comes to personal negotiations, everything calms down a bit, unnecessary emotions go away. Let us hope that Zelensky will reach practical implementation ... As for seafarers, there is a procedure there, but I think that this problem can also be solved in personal negotiations, ”the political scientist added.

In turn, the expert of the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Blokhin noted that compared to the previous president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, the current head of state has already made a significant step forward in terms of relations with Moscow.

“Still, he demonstrates a desire for dialogue. This is a breakthrough, a completely different level - unlike Poroshenko, for whom readiness for dialogue was like a psychological defeat. Zelensky, like Trump, is shackled by the Russophobic establishment, understandable, and this prevents him from pursuing a policy aimed at dialogue ... Whatever the outcome of this enterprise, at least, the desire to engage in dialogue is already a victory, ”Blokhin said.

According to him, certain steps are also being taken from the Russian side in this direction, informational platforms are being created to discuss the situation. In particular, on the eve of the “Russia 1” channel a “non-political” teleconference “Russia - Ukraine” was broadcast.

“Prerequisites are being created for creating a platform for mutual dialogue, so that the parties can exchange views not through the prism of confrontation, hostility, political battles, but at least at the household level. Some tendencies to change the situation are observed both from our and from the Ukrainian side, ”the expert added.

“Really ready to make concessions”

Commenting on the recent steps of Vladimir Zelensky, a RT source surrounded by the Ukrainian leader said that the president agreed to follow the Minsk agreements and was “really ready to make concessions” for the sake of the release of Ukrainian sailors and the end of the war in the east of the country.

“There is one problem: the nationalists and the political elite of Ukraine are against the compromise. Zelensky is an inexperienced politician, so his real actions will depend on which of the pressure groups will win in his environment, ”said the source RT.

In turn, the RT source in the Popular Front party expressed the opinion that Zelensky, with his statements about the need to reach an agreement with Russia, “tests” the public opinion, testing the mood of voters.

“I think after the parliamentary elections his actions will become bolder. The only question is whether the law enforcement agencies will be able to keep the situation. Protests are very likely, and Zelensky fears this. It is necessary to negotiate, hostilities can not last forever. The same applies to sailors, ”said the deputy.

At the same time, the interlocutor of RT in the Radical Party said that the sixth president of Ukraine "is playing a very dangerous game." According to him, experts recommended Zelensky to communicate with Putin only through the mediation of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, but the head of state decided to act independently.

“But Zelensky was disappointed in foreign partners and decided to handle himself. I think that decisions not agreed with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs can lead to problems. Even if he can come to an agreement with Russia, then how then will this decision be implemented in Ukraine? The nationalists simply will not allow him to make concessions, ”the source summed up.

Norman format

In addition to Putin’s conversation with Zelensky, last week there were also talks on foreign policy advisers to the heads of state and government of the Norman Four. July 12 in Paris, they discussed the possibility of holding the first meeting of the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France in three years. It is reported that the Russian side was represented by the assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladislav Surkov, and the Ukrainian side - by the deputy head of the presidential administration Vadim Pristayko.

As reported by DPA, after the talks, the German side said that this meeting "consolidated the positive developments" that have emerged in the south-east of Ukraine. In particular, the representatives of the "Norman Four" discussed further steps to implement the Minsk agreements (above all - the cease-fire) and agreed to continue negotiations in this format.

According to Alexei Chesnakov, director of the Center for Political Studies, during the discussion held in Paris, it was decided to return later to the question of the possibility of a meeting of the leaders of the “four” countries.

"It is recognized that the next possible summit should be preceded by the intensification of work on the implementation of the decisions of the Berlin meeting of leaders held in 2016," Chesnakov wrote in his Telegram channel.

Recall that the last personal meeting of the leaders of four countries was held in Berlin on October 19, 2016. It confirmed the importance of implementing the framework decision on the breeding of forces and assets in three areas: in Zolotom, Petrovsky and Stanitsa Luganskaya. In addition, the importance was noted of the implementation of the so-called Steinmeier formula, which implies the entry into force of the law on the special status of Donbass and the subsequent elections in the region.

The Russian side has repeatedly noted that the new meeting of the heads of state of the Quartet makes sense only after the agreements reached have already been implemented. At the same time, in the final period of Petro Poroshenko’s rule, the work in the Norman format was actually paralyzed, therefore the last representative meeting of the parties took place in Berlin in June 2018, at the level of foreign ministers.

The interlocutor of the Kommersant publication in the Russian Foreign Ministry noted that now it is possible to speak about the breeding of forces only in the Stanitsa Luganskaya, although there are certain questions to this process: “There are problems with fortifications.”

According to the representative of Ukraine in the subgroup on political issues of the tripartite contact group on the settlement of Donbass Roman Immortal, the process of breeding forces "gradually, but it is going." At the same time, he added that the law on elections in the territory of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics has not yet been adopted, and everyone interprets the “Steinmeier’s formula” in its favor.

At the same time, the Kommersant interlocutor noted that the meeting, as well as the telephone conversation between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky, are “positive signals” and indicate a desire to move on. He also expressed the opinion that in Paris the schedule was discussed rather than the specifics of the work to be done.

“At first, such meetings are held, then contact of ministers - and only then preparation for the summit, at which the presidents must set tasks, is possible. The contact group is already fulfilling them, ”said Immortal.

Commenting on a certain revival of the Minsk format and the Russian-Ukrainian dialogue, political analyst Ivan Mezyuho, in a conversation with RT, recalled that, while still being a presidential candidate of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky promised to end the war in Donbass and advance on the issue of peaceful settlement. And almost immediately after the inauguration and the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada, the next parliamentary election campaign began.

“I think the fact that Kiev began to take a more constructive position in the Minsk process compared to what we had under Poroshenko is connected with this election circumstance. It is important that the dialogue be extended after the parliamentary elections. The main danger is that when the elections are held, representatives of nationalist circles can join the new convocation of the Verkhovna Rada, who will in every possible way block the Minsk agreements. In this case, Ukraine can continue a non-constructive course towards the residents of Donbass, taken more Poroshenko, ”said Mezyuho.