He travels to North Korea, celebrates his birthday in Tajikistan with Russian President Vladimir Putin and prepares his meeting with his American counterpart Donald Trump at the next G20 summit in Japan. Chinese President Xi Jinping is diplomatically ubiquitous ... but totally absent from the picture of the Hong Kong crisis.
The suspension, Sunday, June 16, of the controversial draft law on extradition to China, however, is the first major political failure of the master of Beijing since his accession to power in 2012. His silence on this issue appears all the more astonishing as Xi Jinping is said to be "someone who is not inclined to make concessions or back down," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a professor at Hong Kong Baptist University and author of "Demain China, Democracy or Dictatorship" ( Gallimard edition, 2018), contacted by France 24.
In full preparation of the 70 years of the regime
This crisis demonstrates the limits of Xi Jinping's power. The Chinese president "has a very narrow margin of maneuver in Hong Kong. It can not take control directly of the territory, which would have a too important political cost ", summarizes Jean-Pierre Cabestan. For this specialist, his only option "was a tactical distance" with the events, to give the impression of being alien to the crisis. The Chinese regime is, in fact, erecting a safety net around the leader "leaving Carrie Lam [head of the Hong Kong executive, Ed] in the front line," said the political scientist.
The Hong Kong crisis could hardly have come at a worse time for Xi Jinping. "This year marks the thirtieth anniversary of the Tienanmen protests, the 20th anniversary of the beginning of the persecution of Falun Gong, and in October, Beijing will begin celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. Xi Jinping really wants to avoid the slightest trouble to preserve the appearance of a festive mood throughout the country, "said France 24 Mareike Ohlberg, specialist in China and Hong Kong at the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies (Merics).
However, demonstrations involving millions of Hong Kong people defying the authority of Carrie Lam, the protected Beijing who runs the semi-autonomous territory, do not give the impression of a Chinese president who navigates in calm waters.
Xi Jinping, the president not so "omnipotent"
At least, this is the image that emerges internationally. The main consequence for Xi Jinping is that the failure to enact the extradition law has tarnished "this portrait of an omnipotent leader who has imposed itself internationally," says Mareike Ohlberg. Americans have jumped at the opportunity to exploit this weakness. Donald Trump assured that the situation in Hong Kong will be on the agenda of his interview with Xi Jinping at the next G20 summit in late June. US Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo expressed "his support for democratic values and the protection of fundamental freedoms guaranteed by Hong Kong laws."
On the other hand, it is much less obvious that this crisis is affecting Xi Jinping's authority within China's borders. First, because Chinese censorship keeps public opinion in the dark about the reality on the ground in Hong Kong. Then, because it is difficult to know if there is still an internal opposition capable of recovering the current crisis to challenge the Chinese president. "His decision to change the Constitution [in March 2018, Ed] to extend his mandate and his way of conducting the trade conflict with the United States have been criticized, but it is unclear whether members of the party can to use it to challenge his authority ", explains Jean-Pierre Cabestan. First, because Xi Jinping "has with his anti-corruption campaign, a very effective tool to target political opponents," recalls Mareike Ohlberg. Secondly, because Chinese propaganda quickly rewrote the scenario of the Hong Kong crisis by saying that "foreign forces" were at work on the spot. Thus, "it is not a timely moment for opponents to make their voices heard because they would immediately be accused of anti-Chinese feeling," notes Jean-Pierre Cabestan.
The real test for Xi Jinping will likely take place in Taiwan, where elections are to be held in January 2020. Since the local elections of 2018 in this territory that the Chinese president would formally include in China, "candidates more in favor of a rapprochement with Beijing seemed to have gained ground, but the Hong Kong crisis could change this dynamic, "said Mareike Ohlberg. For her, the Hong Kong dispute portrays in a very unfavorable light the formula of "one country, two regimes" in force in Hong Kong and that the supporters of a rapprochement with China would like to import into Taiwan.