- Tweeter
republish
More than 20 ministers and MPs are hoping to replace Prime Minister Theresa May, whose departure is announced for June 7, and resolve the Brexit imbroglio. But with a total impasse in Parliament, the task promises to be perilous and the chances of longevity in this post pretty slim.
From our correspondent in London,
Victim of her inability to implement Brexit, Theresa May finally gave up hanging on her chair and decided to leave Downing Street just after US President Donald Trump's US state visit of 3 June 5th. The mandate of this ambitious, hard-working and stubborn pastor's daughter will remain in the annals as one of the shortest British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.
It will also be remembered as a true Stations of the Cross because Theresa May has suffered failures, vexations, criticisms and even conspiracies within her own party. His replacement is an internal matter to the Conservatives who will first choose a new leader, then dubbed at the head of the government by Queen Elizabeth II. The race for succession officially starts only the week of June 10, but many personalities, suitors already declared or possible, have taken the lead and gather their support.
The process is done in two steps. Candidates must first have the support of at least two Conservative MPs to enter the race. The parliamentarians then vote until there are only two candidates running. Then, it is the members of the Conservative party who decide them in a postal vote. It can last up to six weeks. The party could have a new leader and the country a new prime minister at the end of July.
■ Boris Johnson
Great favorite, Boris Johnson confirmed right after the announcement of Theresa May that " of course " he would come. The former mayor of London, nicknamed "BoJo", had chosen in 2016 to champion an exit from the EU after much hesitation. The MP had prepared two statements, one in favor of the "remain", the other of Brexit, but preferred the exit by political calculation in the perspective of finding himself Prime Minister in case of victory of the "leave". Betrayed by a former ally, he had to withdraw his candidacy for the succession of David Cameron after the referendum and was appointed to the prestigious position of Minister of Foreign Affairs by a Theresa May, eager to give pledges to the hard fringe of the "brexiters" ".
Boris Johnson, however, did not thank him and continued to criticize his strategy during the negotiations with the Twenty-Seven, weakening month after month the position and authority of the leader. After the publication of Theresa May's proposed withdrawal agreement, Boris Johnson finally left the government to defend a "hard" Brexit, a clean break, out of the single market and without a customs union with the EU.
Charismatic and extremely ambitious, Boris Johnson is at 54 years very popular with the conservative party base, but much less with his fellow MPs who criticize his exuberant personality, his many blunders and lack of rigor. "BoJo" has also made strong enemies in Parliament, including a group called "Stop Boris" and who intends to do everything so that it does not pass the first stage. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson said he was confident he could find a new deal with Brussels while saying he was ready to leave the negotiating table. He already has the support of government heavyweights, including "remainers" such as Finance Minister Philip Hammond who believes he is more likely to win a general election in the event of an advance poll.
■ Dominic Raab
A 45-year-old eurosceptic wolf, Dominic Rabb is the former minister of Brexit. Appointed in July 2018 after the resignation of David Davis, he in turn threw in the towel a few months later to protest against the withdrawal agreement with Brussels. A former lawyer specializing in international law, he is one of the figures of the new conservative guard and has already attracted the support of the uncompromising "brexiters", which means that Boris Johnson will be under pressure to show how much he is ready to leave the EU without agreement.
■ Michael Gove
Boris Johnson's lieutenant during the referendum campaign in 2016, Michael Gove stabbed him in the back by withdrawing his support just as Johnson was going to announce his candidacy to head the party, to present himself at the station. A betrayal that was later eliminated by Tory party members. Former Minister of Education for radical reforms and now Minister of the Environment, Michael Gove is, at age 51, a talented speaker and a formidable tactician. He has long had ambitions for Downing Street, but he will have to decide how far he is willing to support a "no deal", a Brexit without agreement, after defending Theresa May's compromise agreement to the end.
■ Jeremy Hunt
The 52-year-old Foreign Minister is a former "remainer" since converted to the virtues of Brexit in the face of the functioning of Brussels which he even compared to the Soviet Union and whose arrogant attitude he criticized during negotiations. A former businessman who strove to remain loyal to the end Theresa May, Jeremy Hunt has yet declared a candidate for his estate in the half hour after the announcement of his departure. He knows how to be very persuasive and resilient. He was able to stay health minister for six years while facing the worst crisis in the NHS, the UK's public health services.
■ Andrea Leadsom
Among women, Andrea Leadsom, 56, has a strong chance. The Minister for Parliamentary Relations resigned on Wednesday, May 22, laying a fatal blow to the authority of Theresa May, who lost significant support from this tireless Brexit lawyer. Andrea Leadsom spent a career in finance at the City of London before becoming a Member of Parliament in 2010. She became a prominent figure in the Leave camp during the referendum campaign. Candidate finalist against Theresa May in the 2016 David Cameron succession race, she had to give up abruptly after setting off a media storm claiming that as a mother she would make a better Prime Minister than Theresa May, who could never have children.
The list of candidates is still long and all those who will present themselves will have to position themselves from the beginning in relation to the Brexit, dominant theme of this short campaign. The contenders will also have to be ready to take shots during a ballot that promises to be ruthless. The winner will require a lot of resilience to bring British voters, still extremely divided, on the verge of exasperation and who want a quick resolution to a crisis that has paralyzed their country for three years.
For the next leader, the main problem is that the arithmetic in Parliament remains the same. It will still not have an absolute majority to force a Brexit agreement into force or not at all in the House of Commons while MPs are more divided than ever on Brexit. But time is running out. The new deadline for Brussels is 31 October. It seems almost impossible by then to renegotiate a new agreement with the Europeans who warned that this offer was the last. And if the EU does not agree to give the UK another deadline, the first big decision of Theresa May's successor could be an exit without an agreement yet dreaded by many.