Beijing (AFP)

"Count on your own strengths". The Maoist slogan finds a second youth in China, when the country's delay in the field of chips is threatening to ruin the giant Huawei, the world's second largest smartphone.

After 40 years of spectacular economic takeoff, China is at the forefront of technology in many areas, from space to robotics.

But by blocking Huawei's access to US technology, Donald Trump has highlighted a vulnerability: the Chinese telecom champion remains dependent on crucial foreign components - microprocessors, and Beijing suffers from a lack of innovation.

"China still does not control basic technologies to create its own semiconductors," points Gabriel Chou, Asia manager of World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, a group of companies in the sector.

This requires "a long supply chain and China will need time" to develop it, he told AFP.

In this context, "to match in a few years all technological capabilities of American origin is unlikely," said Ryan Whalen, the Center for Law and Technology of the University of Hong Kong.

- 'A mortal blow' -

Since taking office in 2012, President Xi Jinping has promised his fellow citizens "the Chinese dream" of making China a technologically advanced, powerful and prosperous country by 2050.

Artificial intelligence, robotics, renewable energies ... Beijing has never hidden its ambition to become essential in ten sectors of the future. This is the goal of its ambitious "Made in China 2025" program, which provokes the ire of the Trump administration, worried about this challenge to American technological dominance.

Without explicitly mentioning Huawei and the trade war, the Chinese president spoke this week of a "New Long March", in reference to the journey that allowed the communists to escape the nationalists during the civil war.

"Only in possession of an independent technology (that we) can remain invincible," he said.

"Beijing has invested heavily in industries of the future," said AFP, Kenny Liew, technology analyst at Fitch Solutions. And "the trade war will accelerate China's technological independence" which is "in a strong position to become a much more influential player," he said.

But this approach could however prove counterproductive, warns Paul Triolo, of the firm Eurasia, which reminds that the sector of the tech is carried by the world competition and not the intervention of the State.

Moreover, despite the billions spent by Beijing, China is lagging behind its Korean and Japanese neighbors in the field of semiconductors.

"It's incredibly difficult to cut yourself off from foreign suppliers in such a competitive, ever-changing market where you always have to be at the cutting edge of innovation," he says.

Soon deprived of key components, Huawei would be about to be dropped by the UK semiconductor specialist, ARM.

It would be a "deadly blow" because "ARM is simply irreplaceable": it designs the microprocessors of 90% of cell phones and tablets, summarizes Avi Greengart, founder of the American research firm Techsponential.

Huawei would then have no choice but to "design its own chips from scratch," adds Kenny Liew.

A project that "would take years and cost billions of dollars" without any guarantee of success, according to Greengart.

- 'Never autonomous' -

"We can make beautiful buildings with Lego without knowing how to make the bricks (...) The Chinese are good in the design of products but they are very dependent on American chips", summarizes Gabriel Chou.

It is however an imperative to avoid the disappointments of ZTE. Unable to provide US components after a ban on the Trump administration, this other Chinese telecom equipment supplier nearly disappeared last year.

The agony in a few months of a national champion of 75,000 employees had been experienced as a trauma in China, before the US President renounced the sanction.

Another weak point, China is sorely lacking talent in the field of advanced technologies.

"Talent is attracted by the United States, where are the companies at the forefront of technology," says Nicole Peng, analyst at the firm Canalys.

This "scarcity is a problem," the Chinese daily Global Times reported on Tuesday, citing figures from a specialized firm that estimates that "only" 400,000 engineers in microprocessors - where more than 700,000 would be needed .

And the newspaper, willingly nationalist tone, to quote a worried expert: "If we do not take action in the long term, we will never be autonomous".

? 2019 AFP