Before the second round of the presidential election in Ukraine, a little more than a day remains, but the current head of state, Petro Poroshenko, is significantly behind the showman Vladimir Zelensky. According to surveys, only 27% of respondents are ready to vote for him, while 73% are for Zelensky.

Poroshenko not only failed to narrow the gap, on the contrary, in recent weeks he has lagged behind his rival even more. We emphasize that, according to a poll published by the sociological group Rating on April 11, Zelensky's advantage was 37% — 61% of respondents were ready to vote for him, 24% for Poroshenko.

In part, this was due to the inept public relations company deployed by Poroshenko’s headquarters — the president’s political consultants made quite a few major mistakes, according to experts polled by RT. So, according to them, the Ukrainians were outraged by the bilbolds, in which Poroshenko’s opponent was not Zelensky, but Russian President Vladimir Putin. The team of the current president hoped to convey the idea that he was the only candidate not ready to cooperate with Russia, but had the opposite effect and an avalanche of criticism in his address.

Recall that in the first ballot Petro Poroshenko won 15.95% of the vote, and Vladimir Zelensky - 30.24%. The second round is scheduled for April 21. And the current head of state has almost no chance of winning, experts say.

In these conditions, Poroshenko gradually begins to lose power levers. As political analysts say, the political, judicial and financial circles of Ukraine cease to take him as a leader, the elite turn away from the president, quickly adjusting to the coming to power of a new figure.

So, on April 8, the head of the Odessa Regional State Administration, Maxim Stepanov, refused to obey the order of the President of Ukraine and leave his post, accusing the head of state of abuse of power.

Then, on the night of April 16, the Brovarsky Inter-District Court released Verkhovna Rada deputy Nadezhda Savchenko and head of the Officer Corps organization Vladimir Ruban from custody, since the previous ruling on electing a preventive measure expired, and no judges were found to make a new decision. Recall Savchenko and Ruban were arrested by the SBU in March 2018 on charges of intending to organize a series of explosions in the building of the Verkhovna Rada and carry out a coup d'etat.

As stated by the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Yuriy Lutsenko, the release was possible because of the unwillingness of individual members of the judicial community to perform their work. The basis of this sabotage are political motives, experts believe, since the criminal prosecution of Savchenko was organized by the administration of Poroshenko, whom she actively criticized.

But the most serious blow to Poroshneko was the decision of the District Administrative Court of Kiev, which satisfied the claim of the opponent Poroshenko - businessman Igor Kolomoisky - recognizing the nationalization of PrivatBank as illegal.

Riot against Poroshenko

Former adviser to the president of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma, political analyst Oleg Soskin believes that the decision of the District Administrative Court of Kiev, as well as the situation with the release of Savchenko, can be regarded as a revolt that rose against Petro Poroshenko in the elites.

During the years of presidency, Poroshenko could not monopolize all branches of government, for example, judicial and media, representatives of business, various corporate, security and public groups are also very bad, the expert said.

“Much of the business community, as well as a part of the legal system, is hating Poroshenko. Up to a certain point, they tolerated, having clasped their teeth, but when everyone understood that his time was running out, these circles also revolted. Now began the uprising of the inner elites. Even those who previously served Poroshenko and his interests, ”Soskin explained in an interview with RT.

According to him, the decision of the court on PrivatBank can become a precedent for other similar cases.

“Poroshenko is now in a political sense just beating in agony, but it must be admitted that he was a powerful“ predator. ” He thinks that the security forces still obey him, but it is doubtful that they will actually follow his instructions, ”Soskin stressed.

"May break the financial system of Ukraine"

The decision to nationalize PrivatBank was passed by the Ukrainian Cabinet in December 2016. The government called on the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and shareholders of a financial institution to take this step. The authorities explained their actions by concern for the stability of the financial system of Ukraine, since the bankruptcy of such a large bank would deal a huge blow to it.

By that time, PrivatBank accounted for 21% of all assets of the country's banking system, 36% of deposits of individuals, half of plastic cards issued and 61% of ATMs. However, in the balance of the credit institution, then there was a gap of more than $ 5 billion, because of which he was declared insolvent by the decision of the NBU. After nationalization, the state recapitalized a financial institution for this amount by issuing a special loan.

At the same time, as stated in the National Bank of Ukraine, the largest shareholder of Privatbank, Igor Kolomoisky, managed to withdraw substantial funds from the bank before deciding on its nationalization through lending to affiliated structures.

Kolomoisky himself believes that the motive for nationalization was the acquisition of shares of the TV channel “1 + 1”, which allegedly were pledged to PrivatBank. However, Poroshenko did not manage to seize the channel, the businessman said.

In this regard, he argued that the nationalization of the bank was carried out illegally, and filed a number of lawsuits demanding compensation for the losses incurred. Oligarch believes that the state is obliged to pay him about $ 2 billion.

Today, PrivatBank ranks first among Ukrainian banks in terms of assets. In this regard, according to analysts, his privatization and the payment of compensation to Kolomoisky could cause serious damage to the Ukrainian economy.

“Objectively for Ukraine, the payment of such amounts as $ 2 billion can lead to a technical default and break the financial system of Ukraine,” said Denis Denisov, director of the Institute for Peace Initiatives and Conflictology, in an interview with RT.

"We can not allow such a scenario"

Commenting on the court’s decision, Igor Kolomoisky suggested that Petro Poroshenko publicly apologize for the nationalization of the bank.

“A judgment is a judgment. Let Poroshenko publicly admits his mistake. Let him say that nationalization is a mistake, ”the publication of the Economic Truth quotes the words of an entrepreneur.

However, the current president of Ukraine, after the court decision, has developed an active role On April 18, at an emergency meeting of the National Security and Defense Council, he appealed to the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Security Service of Ukraine with a request to investigate the possibility of bringing the judges of the Kyiv District Administrative Court to criminal responsibility. It was they who on the eve declared illegal the nationalization of PrivatBank. Poroshenko called such a verdict "unjust."

At the same time, the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine received an order to “restart” the Kiev District Administrative Court, so that it “would finally undergo judicial reform.”

  • Petro Poroshenko.
  • Reuters
  • © Valentyn Ogirenko

In addition, during an emergency meeting of the National Security Council, Poroshenko instructed the NBU to ensure the smooth operation of all branches of this financial structure.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine must inform the situation around PrivatBank and Ukraine’s foreign partners - the World Bank, the IMF, the USA and the European Union, in order to explain to them the “motivations of former shareholders” of a credit institution, the head of state ordered.

The Ministry of Finance, in turn, is instructed to examine all the risks associated with a judicial decision.

"We just can not allow such a development scenario," - quoted Poroshenko edition of "TSN".

The NBU has already stated that Kolomoisky cannot claim compensation as he cannot prove in court the fact of causing financial damage to him. This statement was made at a briefing by the head of the Ukrainian Central Bank Ekaterina Rozhkova. She recalled that at the time of recognition of the bank as insolvent, the capital of the institution was negative, and the state itself incurred losses, closing these financial gaps.

Igor Kolomoisky, in turn, threatened to make public the details of some unofficial agreements on the nationalization of PrivatBank in the event of the defeat of Petro Poroshenko in the second round of the presidential election.

“It was an agreement where someone quietly leaves, someone does not touch the power, someone behaves loyally, and someone does not create problems in business,” said the oligarch, adding that the very fact of concluding such agreements for power is unacceptable.

"President in a spacesuit"

Now Petro Poroshenko is trying to expand the story with the decision of the court on "PrivatBank" in their favor, RT interlocutors say. Attempts Kolomoisky sue the state $ 2 billion presented by the Poroshenko team as a blow to Ukraine. The president is trying to turn the situation in his favor, although initially the court’s decision was directed against him, experts say.

Vladimir Zelensky is considered a protege of Igor Kolomoisky, so Poroshenko at the same time tries in this way to influence the election rating of his political rival, political scientists believe.

However, by demanding that the Prosecutor General’s Office and the SBU find grounds for criminal cases against judges, Poroshenko discredits himself, stressed Denis Denisov.

“It is interesting that Poroshenko himself“ issued a sentence ”, calling the court’s decision illegal. In general, the biggest problem for Ukraine is that its judicial system is focused on political leadership. When a new president arrives, the courts begin to stamp decisions based on his vision of the situation, ”the expert explained in an interview with RT.

But for Poroshenko, this story would no longer become a political trump card - it’s too late now to do something to improve the rating, Denisov said.

The director of the Ukrainian Institute for Policy Analysis and Management Ruslan Bortnik also shares a similar point of view.

“Now Poroshenko and his team are focusing on the threat of default, the devaluation of the hryvnia, blaming Kolomoisky and, accordingly, Zelensky. But, in the first place, the presidential instruction to initiate proceedings against judges looks like an unlawful interference with the work of the judicial branch of government. Secondly, the whole situation is alarming the Ukrainians. Poroshenko - "President in a spacesuit", which does not listen to society. It cannot be said that the population believes Zelensky, just against Poroshenko’s background, he looks like a lesser evil, ”the expert emphasized in an interview with RT.