Petro Poroshenko is going to continue political activities after the defeat in the presidential election.

"Together we are going to win the parliamentary elections, we will return to Bankovaya Street (the building of the presidential administration in Kiev - RT ) after the next presidential election," he told his supporters on April 22.

As previously reported by the head of the BPP parliamentary faction, Arthur Gerasimov, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc party will take part in the next elections to the Verkhovna Rada. He expressed confidence that there will be no early dissolution of the parliament and the voting will take place, as provided by law, in October, RIA Novosti reports.

Poroshenko also expressed the intention to form an opposition to Zelensky.

“I will leave the office of the president. But I will not leave politics. I will fight for Ukraine. The new president must have strong opposition. The country will only benefit from this, ”Poroshenko wrote on his Twitter on April 22.

However, the president of the Center for Systems Analysis and Forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko, that Poroshenko needs to first think about how to stay free.

“If by that time there will be an amnesty and Poroshenko will be released from prison, then anything is possible. Today, he has the possibility that to get into the Verkhovna Rada, that for the election to the presidency - zero, "- he said.

Criminal Perspectives

Recall that during the election campaign, Zelensky spoke out quite firmly about his opponent and did not rule out that he would go to jail. So, he threatened Poroshenko with a criminal case for alleged involvement in the theft in the Ukroboronprom company.

“There are many candidates, but one of them will no doubt go to jail!”, Was noted in February on Zelensky’s Team’s Facebook.

However, according to experts, it’s not a fact that, under the new president, Poroshenko will indeed be prosecuted. To start Zelensky need to change the security forces, and this requires the approval of Parliament. But today in the Verkhovna Rada only a few people from the non-factional association “For Zelensky” support him, the creation of which before the second round of elections was announced by deputy Vitaly Kupriy.

In this case, the largest parliamentary faction - at BPP. It includes 135 deputies. Together with the Popular Front (80 mandates), it constitutes a parliamentary majority (there are 450 seats in the Rada), without whose consent the president does not have the right to take a single personnel decision.

  • Petro Poroshenko and the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Yuriy Lutsenko
  • © Gleb Garanich / Reuters

The balance of power in parliament may change after the October elections. However, it is not known whether a criminal case will be initiated against Poroshenko, experts say.

“It all depends on a number of circumstances. First of all, whether Poroshenko has agreements with the largest oligarchs of Ukraine, in particular, with Igor Kolomoisky, who is believed to be behind Zelensky, ”said Oleg Nemensky, a senior researcher at RISS, in an interview with RT.

In his opinion, Poroshenko has a chance to remain both at liberty and in politics, but for this he needs to make some concessions. A step in this direction, the expert suggests, is the recent verdict of the Kyiv District Administrative Court on recognizing the illegal nationalization of Privatbank, which until 2016 was part of Kolomoisky's business empire.

The fate of Poroshenko also largely depends on the position of the US and EU countries, analysts say. He still enjoys the support of some Western elites: this is one of the factors protecting him from criminal prosecution, believes the director of the Institute for Policy Analysis and Management, Ruslan Bortnik.

“But the main thing Poroshenko hopes for is his own business empire. As long as he remains the largest oligarch of Ukraine, nothing threatens his life and freedom. There may be criminal cases against people from his entourage, some of them may sit down. But Poroshenko himself is not touched, provided, of course, if he and his team can successfully defend their position and assets. And in order to provide this protection, it is vital that they have political influence, ”said the expert in an interview with RT.

Pre-election deals

The distribution of mandates in the new parliament will largely depend on when the parliamentary elections are held, experts say. The elected president can wait for October or use his constitutional right and dissolve the Verkhovna Rada in the near future.

“If Zelensky decides on a quick dissolution of the parliament and new elections, for example, in May, that, in principle, in his interests, then Poroshenko has a chance to create a large faction in parliament. Will effect the effect of his rather strong election campaign. If the elections are held on time, that is, at the end of October, then the chances of the BPP will decrease, ”believes Nemensky.

But regardless of when the elections will be held, Poroshenko’s supporters will receive fewer votes than he did - in the first round, the expert is sure.

“It's one thing to vote for the current president, another thing for the downed pilot,” states Nemensky.

  • Poroshenko and Zelensky at the debate
  • globallookpress.com
  • © Celestino Arce / ZUMAPRESS.com

According to experts, if the elections are held in October, the BPP may not maintain unity in its ranks. Part of Poroshenko’s deputies will go over to the side of the new president, Nemensky believes. In his opinion, the basis of the future Zelensky faction will be the “Popular Front” - the current BPP partner in the ruling coalition.

Experts say that after the defeat in the presidential election Poroshenko for some time will remain relatively popular politician. During the election campaign, he focused on the patriotic electorate, which is subject to the slogan "faith, army, language," notes Bortnik.

Poroshenko will try to keep his electorate until the elections. According to the expert, it is precisely for this that the adoption of a law was initiated, according to which the introduction of two state languages ​​is qualified as “a forced change or overthrow of the constitutional order”. Deputies should vote for him on April 25th.

However, experts doubt that the BPP will be able to unite for a long time all those dissatisfied with Zelensky. According to Bortnik, if Poroshenko’s supporters get into the new parliament, their faction will seek compromises with the president. According to the expert, it is possible that after some time, the new Verkhovna Rada will attempt to impeach Zelensky, but members of the PPO are unlikely to accept it.

“The remaining deputies from the“ party of power ”will never become a consistent opposition. Their claim to Zelensky is only that he pushed them away from the “trough”. He will bring them back to the “trough”, find some compromise with them - their opposition will end, ”notes Nemensky.

The consistent oppositional power of Zelensky can only be those who defend a fundamentally different way of the country's development, the expert is sure. Today, they are representatives of the southeast, who during the election campaign were grouped around such leaders as Yuriy Boyko, Alexander Vilkul and Yevgeny Murayev. Also, the role of the opposition will play Yulia Tymoshenko.

“However, since she and Zelensky and Poroshenko advocate for about the same set of ideas, this will be the opposition for the sake of the opposition,” Nemensky believes.

  • On the debate Poroshenko and Zelensky at the stadium "Olympic" in Kiev
  • globallookpress.com
  • © Serg Glovny / ZUMAPRESS.com

According to Ruslan Bortnik, Poroshenko's supporters will still be able to get into the new parliament.

“Most likely, they will receive 10% of the vote. This is not enough to form a new ruling coalition and apply for high positions. But enough to join any coalition - opposition or ruling - and maintain limited influence on the political system, ”the expert concluded.