Summer is here! The National Summer Process Map Comes Out Where summer is coming earlier and earlier

China Weather Network News In recent days (June 6-5), China has experienced a round of hot weather in the south and north roasting, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other places have encountered continuous high temperature weather, Jiangnan, South China and other places have also experienced continuous sweltering weather, entering the midsummer mode in advance. Many friends lamented that this year's heat is a little early, and China Weather Network specially launched the latest national summer process map to see where the steps of summer have gone. Big data shows that not only this year, but also in the past 8 years, China's summer has come earlier and earlier.

Summer is here! The national summer process map shows where the summer steps go

At present, most of the central and eastern parts of China have entered the summer threshold. The latest summer process map released by China Weather Network shows that as of June 6, most of southern China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and parts of Xinjiang, Shandong, Shanxi and Shaanxi have entered summer in the meteorological sense; Most of the northeast region, the eastern part of the northwest region, Inner Mongolia and other places are in spring; It is still winter in Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet at high altitudes.

This summer came a little early compared to usual. Among all municipalities directly under the central government and provincial capital-level cities, 21 cities, including Haikou, Nanning, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Nanjing, Chengdu, Guiyang, Taiyuan and Xi'an, have successfully entered summer. Among these cities, the proportion of "early check-in" this summer is as high as 10%, of which Wuhan, Changsha, Nanning, Taiyuan, Fuzhou, Nanchang, Chongqing, Guiyang, Chengdu and other places are more than <> days early.

"The northeast region, which has not yet entered summer, will also accelerate next week." Hu Xiao, chief meteorological analyst of China Weather Network, analyzed. It is expected that next week, with the eastward shift of the warm high-pressure ridge, the temperature in North China, Northeast China and other places is significantly higher, and many areas will encounter high temperature weather, and Liaoning, Jilin and eastern Inner Mongolia will accelerate into summer. Throughout the year, summer tends to begin in mid-to-late June, and this year's summer is expected to arrive early.

Big data shows that summer is coming earlier and earlier, does that mean the future will be hotter in the future?

Not only this year, China Weather Network found according to big data statistics that the summer in China in the past fifty years has come earlier and earlier. Taking mid-June as an example, the average summer frontier from 6 to 1971 just arrived in North China, and only central Liaoning entered summer in Northeast China. Between 2000 and 1991, the summer range expanded significantly to include western Liaoning, western Jilin and parts of Heilongjiang, as well as in Yunnan, Sichuan, Shanxi, Hebei and Inner Mongolia.

From the perspective of municipalities directly under the central government and provincial capital-level cities, compared with the average data from 1971 to 2000 and 1991 to 2020, the summer in Nanchang, Chongqing, Yinchuan, Tianjin and other places is more than 10 days ahead, Hangzhou, Changsha, Wuhan, Nanjing, Taiyuan and other places are more than 5 days ahead, and Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou, Hefei and other places also have an advance trend.

Does early summer mean it will be hotter in the future? The World Meteorological Organization predicts that there is at least a 98 percent chance of breaking the temperature record set in 2016 within the next five years. The upcoming El Niño event in the summer of 2023 is likely to be of moderate intensity or higher. Since the impact of El Niño on global temperature usually unfolds gradually in the second year of its existence, the effect is likely to be most pronounced in 2024.

El Niño is a large-scale and sustained abnormal warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific waters, also known as "warm events", which tend to bring about an increase in the global average temperature. The warmest year on record in 2016 was due to a "double critical hit" brought about by a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming.

As far as China is concerned, the National Climate Center predicts that this summer (June to August), the temperature in most parts of China will be close to the same period of the year to the high side, and the number of high temperature (daily maximum temperature ≥6 °C) in East China, Central China, Xinjiang and other places is more than the same period of the year, and there may be a staged high temperature heat wave.

China Weather Network reminds that high temperature and heat waves may become a new normal that cannot be bypassed, and we may face a hotter, more waterlogged and drier future. While preventing heat and cooling, we should also pay attention to energy conservation and emission reduction, and jointly contribute to slowing down climate warming. (Text/Zhang Hui, Design/Zhang Li, Data Support/Hu Xiao)