The world enters "barbecue mode"? WMO: Global temperatures will set new records in the next five years

Author: Feng Difan

On the 17th local time, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released the latest global climate change update report showing that global temperatures may reach record levels in the next five years, mainly affected by the accumulation of greenhouse gases and naturally occurring El Niño.

WMO said that between 2023 and 2027, there is a 66% chance that the global average annual near-surface temperature will be above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, and the entire five, will be the hottest year on record.

WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said: "This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level set out in the Paris Agreement, which refers to years of long-term warming. However, WMO warns that we will see global warming above 1.5°C levels more and more frequently. "

"A warming El Niño is expected in the coming months, which will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory," Talas said. This will have far-reaching implications for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared. ”

El Niño is expected in the coming months

According to the Global Annual to Ten-Year Climate Update Report prepared by the Met Office, the World Meteorological Organization's lead centre for such projections, there is only a 1% chance that the five-year average will exceed the 5.32°C threshold. The likelihood of briefly exceeding 2015.1°C has been steadily increasing since 5, when it was close to zero. Between 2017 and 2021, the probability of exceeding the threshold is 10%.

Dr Leon Hermanson, an expert scientist at the Met Office, who led the report, said: "Global average temperatures are expected to continue to rise, taking us farther and farther away from the climate we are accustomed to. ”

The global average temperature in 2022 is about 1850.1900°C higher than the average temperature in 1-15, WMO said. For most of the past three years, the cooling effects of La Niña have temporarily controlled long-term warming trends. But La Niña ended in March 2023, and El Niño is expected in the coming months. Typically, the year after the El Niño effect occurs — in 3 — causes global temperatures to rise.

According to another update from WMO at the end of May, the likelihood of an El Niño later this year is increasing. This will have adverse effects on weather and climate patterns in many parts of the world that are opposed to the long-standing La Niña phenomenon and could exacerbate global warming. The unusually persistent La Niña phenomenon has now ended after three years of continuity, and the tropical Pacific is currently ENSO neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña).

According to this "update", the probability of transition from ENSO neutral to El Niño is 2023% between May and July 5, increasing to about 7% in June-August and 60% between July and September. This update is based on information and expert assessments from the WMO Global Centre for Long-Term Forecasting.

At this stage, the intensity or duration of El Niño is unknown. "We have just experienced the warmest eight years on record, despite the cooling La Niña phenomenon over the past three years, which has served to temporarily curb global warming. The development of El Niño is likely to lead to new peaks in global warming and increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records. Talas said.

According to WMO records, 2016 was the warmest year on record due to a very powerful El Niño event and a human-induced "double crit" of warming caused by greenhouse gases. The effects of El Niño on global temperatures usually unfold gradually in the second year of its appearance, so it is likely to be most pronounced in 2024.

"The whole world should be prepared for the development of El Niño. El Niño events are often associated with more heat, drought or rainfall in different parts of the world. It could suspend droughts and other La Niña-related impacts in the Horn of Africa, but could also trigger more extreme weather and climate events. Talas said.

It should be explained that no two El Niño events are the same, and their impact depends in part on the time of year.

The Arctic is warming too much

WMO expects the annual average global near-surface temperature to be 2023.2027°C to 1850.1900°C above the average temperature of 1-1 between 1 and 8, which is considered a baseline because it precedes the emission of greenhouse gases by human and industrial activities. There is at least a 98 percent chance of breaking the temperature record set in 2016, when an unusually strong El Niño occurred, within the next five years. There is also a 2023% chance that the five-year average for 2027-98 will be higher than the past five years.

The report also shows that the Arctic is warming too much. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the Arctic temperature anomalies are expected to be more than three times the global average during the extended winter period of the next five northern hemispheres. Precipitation forecast models from May to September 1991-2020 suggest that rainfall is likely to increase in the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and decrease in the Amazon and parts of Australia this season, compared to the 2023-2027 average.

In addition to rising global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are contributing to more ocean warming and acidification, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels and extreme weather, the report argues.

The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to guide all countries to significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit global temperature rise to 2°C this century, while working to limit it further to 1.5°C to avoid or reduce adverse impacts and associated loss and damage.