With the fateful Turkish elections approaching, nothing competes with the question of expected results, especially with talk of intense competition and close opportunities, which refers to the importance of researching the factors affecting voter voting trends about 3 weeks away from polling day.
Alliances
Although the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey coincide and are held on the same day, each of them is subject to different equations and dynamics, but they are nevertheless not independent, as they are closely linked. The four presidential candidates are a reflection in one way or another of the system of alliances that have been established between political parties and shaped the equations of parliamentary elections.
President Erdoğan is the candidate of the ruling People's Alliance, Kemal Kılıçdaroglu is the candidate of the opposition People/Nation Alliance, Sinan Ogan is the candidate of the right-wing Ata Alliance, while Muharrem Ince is the candidate of his country, the most prominent party that has remained outside the main alliances.
The system of alliances was reflected in the philosophy of preparing lists of candidates for the parliamentary elections, as the opposition alliances preferred to present joint lists as much as possible to collect votes and prevent their dispersion, and then to obtain the largest possible number of deputies in the next parliament, while the ruling public alliance was an exception in this context.
Therefore, the chances of candidates for the presidential elections will be directly affected by the weights of alliances in the parliamentary equation, but they will not be identical. Two important details remain: the first is that there are parties that remained outside the alliances but officially and publicly supported one of the candidates, and others – even if they do not declare a bias – the votes of their supporters will be present. The second detail is that joint lists and alliances do not necessarily mean collecting all the votes of the voting bases of the parties of the alliance for the last candidate, but there are still different calculations, tensions and interactions related to the lists, parties, electoral districts, demographics and their political and ideological map. etc., as we mentioned in a previous article.
In light of all of the above, the question remains present and the question is relevant about the chances of presidential candidates, especially Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu, to win the presidency, whether it is from the first or second round, as well as the chances of alliances - especially the two main alliances - to win a majority of seats in the next parliament.
Polls conducted at the time of writing show a divergence in expectations, so they cannot say exactly who the winner will be. In addition to being conducted relatively early, as the main election campaign has not yet begun its momentum, opinion polls in Turkey are marred by many gaps in relations with political parties, due to poor professional performance, and the lack of transparency of the street always towards the polls. This leads to the idea of taking into account the general contexts of these polls more than trusting their detailed results, and all previous electoral contests have shown that this estimate is correct. Therefore, the study of factors influencing voters becomes of great importance in the context of estimates and expectations.
In the absence of surprises, we are encouraged by our expectations that none of the contenders will obtain an overwhelming majority in parliament, and that the presidential election will not be decided in the first round, which would lead to a run-off in which Erdogan is likely to be the winner
Provoking factors
There is no doubt that ideology is one of the most important factors affecting voters' voting, and here we mean real and imagined ideology, party affiliations, political alignments, intellectual tendencies, etc., and it has always been important - and perhaps most important - in the election equation.
But it is certainly not the only one, and perhaps not the most important in the context of the upcoming elections. Apart from the fact that ideology is not the only motivation for voting for traditionally all voters, other factors have been notably present in the current elections, especially in recent months, such as the earthquake and the economic situation. More importantly, the main polarization in the current political scene is not ideological, as opposition alliances of various stripes, right and left, and the Nation Alliance in particular, include 6 parties from different intellectual and ideological backgrounds.
The economy is an important factor in any election, and in Turkey it is strongly present, especially with the economic conditions of the last two years. On the one hand, it is the most important imprint of the PJD in its early years in particular, and it is also the most prominent criticism of the opposition to the government recently, and therefore it is expected to have a significant impact on the trends of voting, especially as it has repercussions on the daily life of citizens in terms of inflation and high prices.
Therefore, in the past months, the government has resorted to the so-called "electoral economy", that is, increasing government spending and reducing collection such as raising the minimum wage and salaries of employees and retirees, facilitating loans, scheduling debts and supporting some segments. Etcetera. As is clear, the main goal is to ease pressure on citizens and reduce the impact of the economy on voting, and Erdogan and the AKP have benefited this in the past months, especially since the opposition has not put forward an alternative economic policy that is detailed and capable of convincing everyone.
Similarly, the file of refugees and foreigners in Turkey, especially Syrians, was a card of strength in the hands of the opposition against the government, but the latter recently legalized and limited the presence of foreigners on its territory, especially in major cities and some of its neighborhoods, which reduced the weight of the file in the election agenda slightly and its decline in media circulation.
In the early days of the devastating earthquake in the south of the country, expectations were pointing to a large bill that the AKP might pay in terms of having ruled the country for 21 years and therefore has a responsibility to deal with the event before and after it happens. But the weeks and months that followed showed the Turkish president's relative success in moving the discussion from "who is responsible" for what happened to "who is able" to rebuild and revive the affected areas, presenting himself and his government as a capable party and tried in this context in previous earthquakes, while confirming his promise to hand over the new homes within a year, and even hand over some of them before the elections.
Finally, the lists of candidates submitted by parties and alliances to the High Election Authority have an important and greater impact than they had in previous elections, which explains the great interest in them, as the parties presented powerful and well-known figures in general. The logic of alliances, according to the amended electoral law, requires alliances to submit joint lists, and this is what the People's/Nation Alliance did, for example, and therefore it is expected that this will benefit it in obtaining the highest possible percentage of the votes of the parties for which the lists include candidates. On the other hand, the parties of the ruling coalition presented independent lists in general, which opens the door to the dispersion of votes, and thus the loss of some seats to the opposition, and even to intra-regional competition within the coalition itself.
On the other hand, the conservative parties – "Happiness", "Future" and "Democracy and Progress" – presented their candidates on the Republican People's Lists and did not run in the elections with their names and slogans led to the loss of potential votes that were looking for an "acceptable" alternative to the PJD, especially from the conservative segment. Therefore, the PJD's fortunes have risen in a way that can be observed in the days following the announcement of the lists until now.
In conclusion, all of the above factors stand theoretically and in principle with the opposition against Erdogan and the AKP, but government actions on the one hand and some decisions on the other have greatly reduced the impact of these factors. As a result, there are no expectations of a comfortable victory by a large margin for either party, which gives additional importance to the election campaign and gives it a greater ability to influence the results, especially since it is primarily targeted by the undecided segment, which is currently estimated at about 10% of the electorate.
In light of the convergence of fortunes between the competitors, 10% cannot be underestimated, but perhaps it can decide the result in favor of those who manage the election campaign better than oratory, communication skills, good management of media presence and investment in the mistakes of opponents, which the Turkish president usually has relative superiority and experience about.
In the absence of any uncalculated surprises, all of the above reinforces our previous expectations that neither side – the People's and Opposition Alliance, including the People's Democratic Alliance and others – will obtain an overwhelming majority in parliament, and that the presidential elections will not be decided in the first round, which requires a run-off that we think Erdogan will be the winner.