Statements by Al-Burhan and Hemedti. A tactic of war or a path to the negotiating table?

The reading of the statements of the head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council in Sudan, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and his deputy, the commander of the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (Hemedti), to Al-Jazeera, varied between those who considered them a mere "tactic" in the context of their management of the war, and those who considered them an indication to sit at the negotiating table.

During the episode of the program (2023/4/20), the researcher at the Khartoum Center for Dialogue, Al-Rasheed Al-Mu'tasim, said that it is not possible for the army to accept negotiations with what he called the Rapid Support Rebels, as there is no room for accepting parallel forces that the Sudanese people do not accept, according to him, and the continuation of the rapid support will cause a political crisis and expose the Sudanese state to division.

This comes against the backdrop of statements made by Burhan to Al Jazeera, in which he expressed the readiness of the Sudanese army to negotiate if the Rapid Support Forces withdraw outside Khartoum, while the commander of the Rapid Support Forces Hemedti, during an interview with Al Jazeera, expressed his support for a humanitarian truce and a temporary ceasefire, while stressing the need to get rid of Burhan to launch the democratic transition.

Al-Mu'tasim continues – in his speech to the program "Beyond the news" – "The tactic is contained in political and military issues, but the current battle was postponed by the army, as it was in any case would not have accepted any forces outside the framework of the authority of the armed forces of the state, because that means the existence of two states, especially in light of international relations to lead the rebel forces."

He believes that Burhan's statements may come within the framework of a message of reassurance sent by the army abroad by talking about readiness for negotiations, but on the ground, there is no open war, but limited skirmishes inside Khartoum, and all states of Sudan are safe.

Just a tactic.

Former US ambassador to Sudan, Timothy Carney, agrees with al-Mutassim that what Burhan and Hemedti have done is "just a tactic," stressing that neither of them is ready to enter into serious negotiations, and what they seek is to improve their international image.

Carney also agreed with Al-Mutasim's opinion – during his interview with the program "Beyond the News – that the modern state cannot have two independent armies, pointing out that the fundamental dispute between Burhan and Hemedti is large, and relates to the period during which the Rapid Support Forces should be integrated into the army.

He pointed to the fears of the two leaders that the phase of impunity for any previous crimes may end soon and they will be prosecuted, which is one of the motives for the explosion of the situation and the entry into these armed confrontations.

Carney believes that the situation leads to 3 future possibilities, the first of which is the victory of one of the parties, and dealing with it as a fait accompli, or the existence of a major and influential international role through supporting the mediation of the African Union, or the adoption of a UN Security Council resolution that allows the imposition of peacekeeping forces, adding that the latter possibility is a step that is difficult to support in light of this situation.

Negotiations of necessity

Sudanese writer and political analyst Hafez Kabir disagrees, who believes that negotiations will come soon, considering Burhan and Hemedti's speeches to Al Jazeera today as an indication of major concessions, reflecting their conviction that the conflict will not lead to achieving their goals, and that the solution will only be through negotiation.

He pointed out in his speech to "Beyond the News", that the military component has already announced twice during its dispute with the civilian component that it announced its refusal to negotiate, and then returned to it again, considering that what threatens the negotiation is the existence of groups that see the need for military resolution and push in this direction, and want a complete exclusion of the Rapid Support Forces.

He explained that these groups exist in the army, and are remnants of the former regime, which – according to him – differ ideologically with the Freedom and Change Group, and therefore do not want to return to negotiate with them and involve them in power, which is rejected by the forces of the revolution.

He questioned the army's resolution of the conflict on most fronts, as his statements and supporters say, pointing out in this context that Burhan's recent statements say the opposite, as he acknowledged the presence of support forces in most governorates, and also pointed out that the inaccuracy of the army's estimates is not new, and this has already occurred during the rebel conflict in Darfur.