The number of people infected with the new corona tends to increase What is the forecast during the long holidays?

An expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare was held to advise on measures against the new coronavirus, and it was analyzed that the number of newly infected people has stopped declining nationwide and is expected to increase in Tokyo and other areas in the future.
Although the number of infected people continues to be lower than before the spread of infection last summer, attention should be paid to the impact of increasing the risk of infection from year to year.

Nationwide decline halted

According to the expert panel, although the current infection situation is below the level of last summer, before the start of the seventh wave of infections, the decline has stopped nationwide and there are many regions such as large cities that have recently increased.

However, the number of seriously ill patients and the number of deaths continues to decline.

As for the future infection situation, the number of infected people may start to increase due to the increase in infections among people in their 7s in large cities, and it is expected that the trend will continue to level off in the short term or increase in some areas such as Tokyo.

After the long holidays, Tokyo estimates about 1,8300 people per day

The group led by Professor Akimasa Hirata of the Nagoya Institute of Technology used AI to estimate the future infection situation based on data such as the number of infected people until March 3, assuming that a mutant virus with even greater infectivity would not appear and that the number of people would gradually return to the pre-corona level.

As a result, the weekly average number of infected people per day in Tokyo is expected to increase from early to mid-May due to the effects of the long holidays, etc., and if 1% of people do not wear masks, it will be suppressed to about 1,5, and if half of the people wear masks, it will be suppressed to about 80,8300.

It was estimated that if the wearing status as usual continues, it will remain at about 4600,2600 people.

After that, the number of infected people will gradually decrease, but it was estimated that it would increase in late August after the Obon holiday, although it was less than in mid-May.

The number of newly infected people is 1.03 times compared to the previous week

According to the data presented at the expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, the number of newly infected people nationwide in the week ending April 4 increased slightly by 1.1 times compared to the previous week, and in 03 prefectures such as Hokkaido, Tohoku, and the Tokyo metropolitan area, it was higher than the previous week.

In the Tokyo metropolitan area and three prefectures, Tokyo increased 18.1 times, Kanagawa 3.1 times, Saitama 26.1 times, and Chiba 16.1 times.

In Kansai, Osaka Prefecture is 07.1 times, Kyoto and Hyogo Prefectures are 05.1 times, Tokai Prefecture is 03.1 times Aichi Prefecture, Gifu Prefecture is 01.0 times, Mie Prefecture is 99.0 times, etc.

In addition, 96.0 times in Fukui Prefecture and 92.1 times in Hokkaido and Akita Prefecture, showing an increasing trend in 35 prefectures.

The number of infected people per 1,30 population in the past week is ▼Tottori Prefecture has the highest number of infected people in Japan at 18.10, followed by ▼Fukui Prefecture with 1.73, ▼Niigata Prefecture with 54.65, ▼Hiroshima Prefecture with 85.64, ▼Nagano Prefecture with 19.63, ▼Tokyo with 58.62, ▼Osaka Prefecture with 94.45, And the nationwide number is 36.32.

Expert MeetingRenewed Call for Measures such as Avoidance of the "3 Cs"

The expert committee pointed out that attention should be paid to the effects of increased infection risks such as annual events, as vaccines and immunity created by infection decline over time, and the proportion of new mutant viruses that evade immunity increases.

In addition, the expert committee said that even though the status of the novel coronavirus in the Infectious Diseases Act will be shifted to "Class 5" next month and infection control measures will be left to the judgment of individuals, it is important to take an interest in the epidemic situation in the community and take voluntary actions to prevent infection so that the infection does not spread to the elderly, who are particularly at risk of becoming seriously ill.

On top of that, we once again called on each and every one of us to take measures such as ▼ If you are worried or have symptoms of your physical condition, ▼ Do not overdo it and recuperate at home or visit a medical institution, ▼ Wash your hands as a habit, ▼ Wear a mask and cough etiquette according to the occasion, ▼ Ventilate and avoid the "3 Cs" etc.

Chairman Wakita: "We need to see future developments."

At a press conference held after the expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Chair Takaji Wakita explained the reason why the number of infected people is increasing depending on the region, "The number of people with immunity increased due to the infection of many people and the progress of vaccination in the so-called 'seventh wave' and 'eighth wave,' but now the data shows that it is decreasing. I believe that changes in person-to-person contact due to the change of fiscal year may have had an effect."

Regarding the increase in the rate at which the mutant virus "XBB.7.8" is detected, he said, "There is a possibility that it is more susceptible to infection than the previous mutant virus, and there is a possibility that infection will spread as it is replaced. It is necessary to see if it will coexist with other mutated viruses in the future," he said, adding that "there is a possibility that it will be on an increasing trend, but it is difficult to say at this point how large it will be."