Turkey's Test

100 days after the February earthquakes, which claimed the lives of more than 48 thousand people, Turkey will have to survive a political earthquake of as yet unknown strength.

The presidential and parliamentary elections, which will be held on the same day, May 14, will be a decisive test of the seismic stability of the political system and the structure of power built by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is seeking re-election for a third five-year term. The politician, who set his sights on a role similar to that played exactly 100 years ago, in 1923, by the founder of the modern Turkish state, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

A pioneer in comprehending the "sovereignty of the nation", Ataturk laid the first furrow that Recep Tayyip Erdogan could not bypass in his state-building of the XXI century.

After the election campaign officially started in the country on March 18, the main Turkish question for the whole world sounds like this: will Erdogan's power withstand the approaching tremors? Will it not turn out similar to how Turkish high-rise buildings were formed during the earthquakes?

On the one hand, this question seems to be inappropriate. After all, unlike the Turkish builders, to whom there may indeed be many questions after the houses they built were folded like a house of cards, Erdogan built his power vertical in a different way. He built seriously and for a long time – on a solid foundation and reinforced concrete piles of healthy nationalism, following Ataturk in this sense.

And yet there is no complete certainty that this sturdy-looking design will stand this time. Why?

The fact is that during the current election campaign, all opposition forces will be mobilized, all forces and means will be involved, all techniques and political technologies, including the blackest PR, will be used to valiantly break this construction of power.

Numerous opponents inside the country rely on a powerful external support group led by US President Joe Biden, for whom, as for his predecessors in the White House, the Turkish president has become a bone in the throat.

The first attempt by the West to get rid of the undesirable Erdogan was made in July 2016, during the Obama administration in Washington, during a failed military coup. Then his power hung in the balance, and he was able to avoid overthrow and death only thanks to the professional actions of the special forces guarding him, who repelled the attack of conscripts mobilized by putschists who tried to storm his hotel in Marmaris.

Following the events in Turkey, Washington and other Western capitals were then waiting for the cherished news that Erdogan is no longer president. But they didn't wait. After the victory over the putschists, the president accused his main opponent, the Pennsylvania-based Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen, of preparing the coup. Saying that "the Gülen group destroyed the armed forces," the Turkish leader promised to "cleanse all state institutions of this virus" and demanded the extradition of Gulen himself from the United States.

It is clear that this requirement was ignored.

Meanwhile, the coup pushed the president to force constitutional reform, turning Turkey into a presidential republic, where power will not only de facto, but also de jure be concentrated in the hands of Erdogan.

The second attempt to end his rule was made two years after the coup - in June 2018, already during the reign of President Trump in Washington, during an early presidential election. Again, a misfire.

His main rival Muharrem Ince, representing the opposition Republican People's Party, was forced to admit defeat in the first round, while the previous elections could well be called a nationwide referendum on confidence in the president.

As a result of the vote, the president only strengthened his position - he received carte blanche to complete the reforms initiated by him, designed to turn Turkey into a presidential republic. The West was horrified: Erdogan not only does not leave, but also consolidates his power, while the country "flies into the abyss of authoritarianism."

And this spring comes the time of the third, decisive attempt to achieve a change of power in Turkey. Namely, the victory in the May presidential elections of a single opposition candidate, the leader of the Republican People's Party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

He has already promised that if he comes to power, the country will always remember its membership in NATO, will not oppose the accession of Sweden and Finland to the alliance, will resume negotiations on joining the EU and, in general, "will become a democracy and a member of the community of civilized nations." This is another recognition that today's Turkey is not democratic and civilized, as they say in the West.

In order to bring down Erdogan, a six-party "People's Alliance" was created, the faces of which were also the opposition mayors of Ankara and Istanbul, Mansur Yavaş and Ekrem Imamoglu. They are promised the posts of vice presidents in the new government.

As Turkish historian Mehmet Perincek told RIA Novosti, the "alliance of six", which nominated a single candidate in these elections, is "Biden's opposition".

"In his campaign speech, US President Joe Biden made it clear that his administration realized one thing: through coups they will not be able to overthrow Erdogan, they need the support of the opposition. The current "table of six" is "Biden's opposition." The policy of the "table of six" was formed in Washington," Mehmet Perincek said, recalling that before the presidential nomination, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu made a trip to the United States, where he declared full support for Ukraine.

Against this background, fake polls have already appeared, according to which the opposition candidate is allegedly noticeably ahead of the incumbent president in popularity. The poll numbers are taken from the ceiling, it is not a fact that the polls were conducted at all. Such manipulation of mass consciousness is designed to instill in voters in advance the idea that Erdogan is an outgoing nature, and Kılıçdaroğlu is a rising star, the future leader of the country.

But that's not all. The Turkish newspaper Sabah reports on the appearance on Twitter of accounts spreading anti-government messages of opposition politicians, journalists and supporters of Fethullah Gulen – that is, the entire motley army of today's fighters against the "Erdogan regime". Erdogan himself is not among the "recommended" accounts.

The cost of a new battle for Turkey entering a decisive phase is skyrocketing, given the new geopolitical reality created by President Erdogan.

Thus, while Turkey is undergoing a critical test, the whole world will be tested by Turkey.

The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.