The agreement on the restoration of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran was barely concluded, on March 10 in Beijing, when all eyes turned to Yemen, where the two rival regional powers have been clashing indirectly since 2015.
If the agreement is to have concrete repercussions in the Middle East, it is in this country, ravaged by a war between the government supported by a military coalition led by Riyadh and the Houthi rebels supported by Tehran.
Sign of the expected impact, the two camps quickly welcomed the announcement of the thaw between the Islamic Republic and the Wahhabi petromonarchy.
The Yemeni power has thus said it hopes that the thaw will allow "the opening of a new era in regional relations, and will put an end to Iran's interference in Yemeni affairs".
For his part, Mohamed Abdel Salam, spokesman for the Shia rebels who took control of the Yemeni capital Sanaa in early 2015, said that "the region needs a return to normalization of relations".
Positive spinoffs for Yemen?
Chance of the calendar, or first effect of relaxation, talks between the Yemeni government and the Houthis began on Saturday in Geneva, the day after the thaw agreement signed in Beijing, about a possible exchange of prisoners.
The UN-sponsored meeting, the seventh to implement a prisoner swap deal reached in Stockholm five years ago, is scheduled to last 11 days.
Even if we do not know what compromises were made by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, to achieve this warming, and that the good intentions of the two rivals remain to be proven, the hope of seeing the situation to evolve in Yemen thanks to the Iranian-Saudi dialogue does exist.
Riadh Sidaoui, director of the Arab Center for Research and Political and Social Analysis, based in Geneva, believes that we can legitimately expect positive consequences on the Yemeni file after the exchange of ambassadors between Iranians and Saudis, "which would be synonymous with the opening of direct channels between the two powers".
"We can even say, for the first time, that there is real hope of seeing a major breakthrough, precisely on the issue of prisoner exchange, not least because the parties have set themselves 11 days of talks, which This optimism stems from detente, in the sense that the Saudis are expected to put pressure on the Yemeni government and the Iranians on the Houthis, in order to "obtain a first breakthrough. Then, if there is success on the question of the prisoners, it will be necessary to push the cursor further, until reaching a peace agreement".
A "credibility test for Iran"?
On the Saudi side, we prefer to wait for gestures of goodwill from Tehran before lapsing into optimism.
"We are in an intermediate period which will serve as a test of credibility for Iran, indicates the Saudi political scientist Saad Abdullah al-Hamid, based in Riyadh. It is a question of seeing if this country has the serious intention of keeping the commitments that allowed the Beijing agreement and whether relations will be able to go in the right direction".
And unsurprisingly, it is Yemen that will serve as a test for both parties and where Iran and its allies in Yemen seem expected at the turn.
"Several files are on the table, discussions will continue on several subjects including this one and all that ensues from it, adds Saad Abdullah al-Hamid. That is to say the Iranian interference in this country, the weight of the militias and the threat posed by the Houthis to the Saudi kingdom and the transport of hydrocarbons".
Oil installations in Saudi Arabia have suffered several drone and missile attacks in recent years, claimed by Shiite rebels.
For Simon Mabon, professor of international relations and specialist in the Middle East at Lancaster University, United Kingdom, the easing of tensions in Yemen was a prerequisite for Riyadh to reconcile with its regional rival.
"The main sticking point of the diplomatic attempts that have taken place in recent years, he recalls, is the absence of a concrete solution to the crisis in Yemen that would have allayed the fears of the Saudis regarding the attacks of the Houthis. against the kingdom. It seems to me that if Riyadh has reached an agreement with Tehran, it means that the Saudis have found a way out of Yemen or a way to guarantee their safety."
However, the Iranians do not seem to be in a hurry to cut corners, and are also waiting for guarantees, as former Iranian diplomat Hadi Afkahi suggests.
"Saudi Arabia, which thought it could conquer Yemen in six months, is mired in a war that has lasted for several years. That is why Mohammed bin Salman now wants to end this conflict and ascend the throne to take care of the huge projects of its 'Vision 2030' plan", he quips.
“We must first, at first, officially restore diplomatic relations between the two countries, and the first step is the opening of embassies and the exchange of ambassadors, he specifies. Then, when the Files that directly concern the two countries will be dealt with, then regional files will be discussed, and the first that was mentioned during the talks is that of the war in Yemen".
A conflict that "does not only concern Riyadh and Tehran"
Even if the rapprochement between these two regional powers, which have a direct influence on a conflict which, according to the UN, has killed 377,000 people in eight years and caused a serious humanitarian crisis, ends up being confirmed in practice, it is too early to to think that Yemen is out of the woods.
Even if the agreement reached in Beijing will really benefit the population, partly relieved by a ceasefire of six months, which expired in October but which made it possible to reduce the violence markedly.
“What I fear the most, says Simon Mabon, is that this agreement neglects, ignores and marginalizes the Yemenis themselves, when they have suffered enormous difficulties and enormous pressures over the last decade. , with conflict, environmental challenges and huge food shortages".
"It should not be an agreement that falls within the realm of high politics, that the Saudis and the Iranians would conclude with local elites, he continues. That is to say with actors that do not necessarily listen to the voices and concerns of ordinary Yemenis who are struggling to feed themselves, to survive, and to get their children medical care or to enable them to go to school".
Without forgetting, beyond the regional thaw, the difficulties posed by the very nature and the complexity of the conflict, to which is added the jihadist threat and the separatist tendencies in the South, formerly independent.
"Of course, we are in a moment of optimism, and if this is some kind of positive agreement that the Saudis managed to get with the Iranians that can end the civil war in Yemen, I will be incredibly happy and grateful," concludes Simon Mabon. "But the conflict in Yemen is not only about Saudi Arabia and Iran, it is also about local grievances, struggles for control of territory, the "access to politics, to the vision of the state. These issues cannot be negotiated by elites in Riyadh and Tehran. That's why I'm a little worried about the future".
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