Author: Qian Xiaoyan

  On the first meal after arriving in Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, a reporter from China Business News went to a mid-range restaurant that he had frequented before the epidemic. When he opened the menu, he found that it was covered with "patches".

At the price tag, the store pasted the revised price with stickers, counted carefully, and some prices had as many as two or three layers of "patches".

  Recalling the prices before the epidemic, the current prices have risen by at least 20% to 30%. Compared with the prices in first- and second-tier cities in China, they are already very similar, and it is not cheap.

Since China adjusted its anti-epidemic policy, many tourists chose Thailand as their first outbound destination. However, after arriving in Thailand, many people complained that the price of goods had soared, and they could no longer afford it.

  Thailand, like much of the world, is experiencing high inflation due to the pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

However, "high prices" are not unrelated to the way tourists visit Thailand. There are also large differences in prices within Thailand. For example, as a metropolis in Southeast Asia, Bangkok's prices cannot be described as cheap even before the epidemic.

  Zhou Shixin, an associate researcher at the Asia-Pacific Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, told Yicai Global that, stimulated by multiple external factors, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries had high inflation rates last year. The biggest change in inflation to come.

  Prices "go up and go up"

  Today, Thailand's tourism industry has begun to recover, which can be felt from the moment it lands.

  At the beginning of March, when a reporter from China Business News arrived in Phuket, Thailand, they saw that even if the Thai immigration officials had no time to carefully check the visa-on-arrival documents and struggled to stamp the visa-on-arrival stamps on their passports, most tourists still had to wait in line for an hour or two to complete the process. The entire clearance process.

  As soon as you get out of the airport, you can immediately feel the enthusiasm of "Phuket" prices - the price of a taxi within 3 kilometers is about 200 baht (about 39.8 yuan), and a normal breakfast in a mid-range restaurant is almost 500 Thai baht (about 99.6 yuan), and a coconut on the beach costs almost 100 baht (about 19.9 yuan).

  In fact, high prices in Phuket are nothing new.

As an internationally famous tourist attraction, the price level of Phuket Island has always been at the forefront in Thailand, especially as previous statistics show that the prices of restaurants in Phuket Island are 20% higher than those in Bangkok.

Today, however, dotted "patches" on restaurant price lists suggest that prices in Phuket have gone up another notch.

  In fact, Thailand's "rising and rising" will mainly occur in 2022.

According to data released by the Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce of Thailand in January 2023, the average overall inflation rate in 2022 will increase by 6.08% compared with 2021.

This data is a new high in 24 years since the impact of the Asian financial crisis in 1998.

  In fact, Thailand's recent inflation rate has been adjusted back, but most Chinese tourists are going abroad for the first time in three years, so it is still new to see prices in Thailand after inflation.

Driven by falling food and energy prices, inflation fell to a 13-month low of 3.79% in February, down sharply from January's 5.02% rise, according to data from Thailand's Ministry of Commerce on March 7.

  Even after leaving Phuket, where tourists gather, and arriving in Bangkok, where logistics and commerce are more developed and convenient, the impact of high prices has not subsided.

For example, the price of two stops on the Bangkok Skytrain (BTS) has risen to 25 baht (about 5 yuan), which is significantly higher than the price of domestic urban rail transit.

  A reporter from China Business News walked into a supermarket in Bangkok and found that the prices of basic supplies related to the daily life of ordinary people have also increased.

For example, the price of a small bag of instant noodles eaten daily by low-income people in Thailand has risen to 7 baht for 6 baht, which has remained unchanged for more than ten years.

  In fact, the Thai government knows that the people are very sensitive to the price increase of this basic material.

There has been a long struggle between the government and businesses for the increase of 1 baht. The Thai government did not announce until August last year that it agreed to increase the price of "national instant noodles" by 1 baht.

  An official from the Department of Internal Trade of the Ministry of Commerce of Thailand stated that although instant noodle companies submitted a request for a "price increase of 2 baht", it was verified to be consistent with the actual situation.

However, under the current difficult situation, a single price increase is expected to have a greater impact on the finances of the public households. After the final study and discussion, the plan to increase the price by 1 baht was approved.

  Instant noodle manufacturers said that production costs have risen sharply after the epidemic, such as labor costs, plastic packaging related to petrochemical products, and transportation costs have also increased significantly.

Regarding the government's price adjustment plan, the person in charge of an instant noodle company complained: "We hardly have any profit from selling this product in China, but it is better than no increase."

  In addition to seeing external inflation factors, it should also be seen that the Thai economy is quite resilient after the epidemic and still has growth momentum, which will also push up prices to a certain extent.

  Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) announced on February 17 that Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.6% year-on-year in 2022.

This year, against the background of the global economic downturn, Thailand's economic growth rate is expected to reach about 3.8%.

  The secretary-general of the committee, Danucha Pichayanan, said that this year, Thailand's exports are facing a complicated situation, but the continued recovery of the tourism industry is expected to inject new vitality into the Thai economy.

The number of international tourists entering Thailand is expected to reach 28 million in 2023.

  Choose the appropriate "Open with"

  Although Thailand is no longer cheap, many Chinese tourists are still willing to choose Thailand as their first outbound destination. The reason is that Thailand is geographically close to China, the entry procedures are simple, and the local tourism industry is developed. Go, without too much uncertainty and worries.

  At the same time, high prices in Thailand are not inevitable, and choosing an appropriate opening method can improve the cost performance.

For example, Phuket is now the peak season, especially after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, more Russian tourists choose Thailand, which has a neutral attitude towards Russia, for vacation, which makes the beaches of Phuket overcrowded and pushes up the prices of accommodation and dining in Phuket.

  However, if the peak season is avoided, although there will be rain from time to time, a reporter from China Business News found after checking on the reservation website that the prices of most hotels are only a quarter of the current prices.

  At the same time, Bangkok, as a metropolis in Southeast Asia, had high commodity prices before the epidemic.

The price difference in Thailand is quite different. Chinese tourists see that Thailand is "cheap" on social media, which is not applicable in Bangkok. However, leaving Bangkok and going to the northern part of Thailand, such as Chiang Mai, consumption is still very cost-effective. .

  The current air fares between China and Thailand are still at a high level. For example, the air ticket from Shanghai to Bangkok is currently around 5,000 yuan, which is double or even triple the price before the epidemic.

  But this will not last for a long time. With the recovery of the number of flights between China and Thailand, the phenomenon of short supply will be solved, and the price of air tickets is expected to gradually decline.

Statistics show that in March, the prices of flights from Shanghai and Beijing to Bangkok, Thailand have dropped by about 10% compared to February; the price of flights between Chengdu and Bangkok has dropped by about 60%, and that between Guangzhou and Bangkok has dropped by about 50%.

  At the same time, with the return of Chinese tourists, the scale effect of tourism has resumed.

Bhumikitti Ruktaengam, consultant chairman of the Phuket Island Tourism Association, said that the arrival of a large number of Chinese tourists can prompt the reopening of previously closed businesses or small and medium-sized practitioners.

This will increase competition and lower prices in the industry.

  Zhou Shixin also told the first financial reporter that after the epidemic, some Thai tourism operators hope to change the people-friendly route of Thailand tourism and take high-quality tourism, but whether this route can be successful depends to a large extent on the acceptance of tourists .

Whether it can attract more tourists after making adjustments needs to be tested by practice.

  Thailand's Minister of Tourism and Sports Pippa said in Bangkok on March 9 that Thailand's tourism industry is continuing to recover. It is estimated that Thailand will receive 25 million to 30 million foreign tourists this year.

He said that as one of Thailand's pillar industries, the continued strong recovery of tourism will help promote Thailand's overall economic growth.

  Thailand's national population is about 72 million, compared with a staggering number of overseas tourists, which shows that the country's economy depends on tourism.

  In addition, Zhou Shixin also analyzed that the competition in the tourism market in Southeast Asian countries is very fierce. If the cost of tourism in Thailand rises sharply, many Chinese tourists will choose to go to countries with lower costs such as Laos or Cambodia, and the market will have a dynamic equilibrium. process.