The recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, who announced on Friday March 10 that they had reached an agreement aimed at restoring their diplomatic relations, which had been severed for seven years, is a major geopolitical event for the Middle East.
Announced following talks held in Beijing, this rapprochement could indeed have, according to experts, many consequences for the main players in the region.
In addition to the war in Yemen, where Riyadh and Tehran have been clashing indirectly since 2015, the crises in Lebanon and Iraq, where the Sunni petromonarchy and the Shiite Islamic Republic support political adversaries, this announcement risks upsetting the deal for Israel.
A diplomatic failure for Benjamin Netanyahu?
Even if we do not know what compromises have been made by each side of Beijing to achieve this rapprochement, and that the good intentions of the two rivals remain to be proven, some are wondering if this relaxation can thwart the plans of the Jewish state and the Biden administration who were working behind the scenes for a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Long sidelined on the regional scene due to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Jewish state has normalized its relations with several Gulf countries, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, within the framework of the Abraham Accords sponsored by the administration in 2020. With a tacit green light from Saudi Arabia, which dominates the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
Shortly after the announcement of the agreement concluded in China, the Israeli opposition fired red balls at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, accusing him of having offered a diplomatic victory to the Iranians.
In particular, his government, entangled in its very controversial justice reform, is criticized for not having succeeded in bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords to isolate Tehran a little more and create a common Arab-Israeli front. in the face of the Iranian nuclear threat.
The Iranian nuclear program is perceived as an existential threat by all Israeli political forces.
"The Saudi Arabia-Iran deal is a complete and dangerous foreign policy failure of the Israeli government," Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid tweeted.
"This announcement is neither good nor bad news for Israel, but Yaïr Lapid is in his role and in an extremely legitimate political posture because, after all, Benjamin Netanyahu is the great architect of the Abraham Accords", believes Frédéric Encel, lecturer at Science-Po and doctor in geopolitics.
And to continue: “Benjamin Netanyahu made himself strong, during the last successive electoral campaigns, to be the one who would manage to plant an Israeli flag on Saudi soil, in other words to open diplomatic relations with the Wahhabi monarchy. this Iranian-Saudi rapprochement, it is clear that Israelis and Saudis are not taking the path, even if in any case, the Wahhabi monarchy had not intended, until now, to take the plunge to open diplomatic relations with Israel".
A compromised Israeli-Saudi rapprochement?
Even if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is no longer a priority for Saudi Arabia, the recent outbreak of violence in the Palestinian territories, concomitant with the coming to power, at the end of December, of the most right-wing government in the history of Israel, makes a short-term diplomatic U-turn difficult for the country that is home to Islam's two holiest sites.
According to Simon Mabon, professor of international relations and specialist in the Middle East at Lancaster University in the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia led by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is simply not ready to sign agreements with Israel.
"The Saudis are talking to the Israelis, it's no secret, but they are not ready to normalize their relations as some of their Gulf neighbors have done, because the repercussions of such a rapprochement go to the beyond the political realm and have enormous consequences throughout the Muslim world, he believes. To take the plunge, Riyadh will need a very broad global agreement with the United States, but I do not think not that Mohammed bin Salman is very keen to offer such a diplomatic victory to the Biden administration, given the state of his relations with Joe Biden, which are not particularly close, which complicates the deal a little more for this file ".
However, experts agree that the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh will not have fatal consequences for the relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia in the shadows.
After all, in recent months, the UAE has resumed diplomatic relations with Iran, without the slightest impact on the already well-established relations between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv.
While negotiations were already underway with the Iranians, Riyadh did not hesitate to show positive signs last year, notably by opening, on the occasion of Joe Biden's regional tour, its airspace to "all carriers".
A gesture of goodwill that de facto lifted the restrictions for planes to and from Israel.
Two leading American dailies, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, reported this week that Riyadh has upped the ante in recent months by seeking security guarantees from Washington and assistance on its nuclear program. civilian, in exchange for normalization with Israel.
A high price that the United States has not agreed to pay, for the moment, even if it means letting China rush into the Middle East.
China in the Middle East, good news for Israel?
After the signing, in March 2021, of a “25-year strategic and commercial cooperation” agreement between Beijing and Tehran, the remarkable visit, in December, of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia, and now the agreement Saudi-Iranian, China seems ready to play a leading role in a region neglected by the United States.
And not just an economic role.
Much to the chagrin of the Israelis?
"Israel may have cordial relations with China, but it is not necessarily good news from the Israelis' point of view to see a new interlocutor intervene in the region, a fortiori a great world power like China, underlines Frédéric Encel From the time when the United States was preponderant for half a century, in a role of judge and arbiter, the situation was rather comfortable for Israel. If tomorrow Beijing were to seriously compete with Washington in the region, it would open up an alternative that is not necessarily the best seed for Israel".
And to conclude: "In any case, whether there is a rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran or not, whether the Chinese decide to get involved in the region or not, the Israelis are obsessed with the potential capacity of the Iranians to equip themselves with term of the nuclear bomb. And whatever the nature or the political coloring of the government in Israel, they will not allow it".
The summary of the
France 24 week invites you to come back to the news that marked the week
I subscribe
Take international news everywhere with you!
Download the France 24 app