The Ukraine War Reshaped the Middle East

The war that Russia unleashed on Ukraine a year ago had major repercussions for the world.

It revived the Cold War era, brought about profound transformations in the European security environment, gave strong impetus to the new era of global geopolitical competition, disrupted global energy trade, and deepened the turmoil facing the global economy.

However, the profound effects of the conflict were not limited to Russia's relations with the West, but also affected regions that sought to remain neutral, such as the Middle East, and reshaped its political geography.

With the exception of the negative repercussions of the war on the economies of the region - especially the weak ones - the conflict constituted an opportunity for active powers in the Middle East - such as Turkey and the Gulf - to strengthen their regional presence, maximize their importance in international politics, diversify their foreign partnerships, and confirm their margin of independence in foreign and oil policies, while This has brought opportunities and problems to other powers such as Iran and Israel, and has also opened the way for Russia and China to increase their role in the Middle East, creating a new dynamic in some prominent regional issues.

Before the war, the Middle East was already living in a new situation two years ago due to the regional de-escalation that brought about a shift in some regional contexts such as the reformed Turkish-Arab relations, and the Saudi-Iranian tension that calmed down reasonably after the two countries embarked on a bilateral dialogue under Iraqi auspices, as well as policy shifts. America in the region after President Joe Biden came to power and resumed negotiations with Iran to revive the nuclear agreement and the crisis of US-Gulf relations.

While the Russian-Ukrainian war did not affect the course of regional de-escalation, its repercussions were clearly visible in other contexts, from Syria and the Iranian nuclear negotiations to the reshaping of Turkey and the Gulf relations with the West and the strained Iranian-Western and Israeli-Russian relations.

The varying repercussions of the war on the regional powers and their relations abroad explain the role of the balance approach adopted by Turkey and the Gulf states in limiting the repercussions of the conflict on its intertwined interests between Moscow and the West, while Iran's drift towards deepening its partnership with Russia has worsened its relations with the West and squandered the chances of reviving the nuclear agreement.

The war led to a reshaping of the relations of regional powers with the outside world and to shifts in the influence of the major powers in the Middle East.

The biggest shift in this context appears in the Gulf region, which has doubled its importance in the global energy system, and strengthened its independence in foreign and oil policies from the United States.

The need for oil prompted US President Joe Biden to visit Riyadh in an attempt to improve relations with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Nevertheless, the war represented an opportunity for the Gulf to advance its strategy of diversifying its foreign partnerships with major powers from the perspective of national interests.

In addition to Riyadh's adherence to the oil partnership with Moscow, China has emerged as a new international actor in the region in an attempt to fill the void resulting from the decline of the US-Gulf partnership.

The Gulf states were able to create a new geopolitical identity for themselves and strengthen the strategy of hedging against the decline of the American role in the region, as well as turning the war into an opportunity to reshape the partnership with the United States on new rules based on mutual benefits.

As much as the war gave the countries of the Middle East an opportunity to enhance their role in regional and global geopolitics, it brought them other challenges centered on their ability to continue distancing themselves from the growing global competition between the major powers.

Although, for the foreseeable future, partnership with Moscow and Beijing cannot fill the void in the decline of US security engagement with the Gulf, Washington is more aware than ever of the need to rectify the partnership with the Gulf.

The war was a challenge in particular for the countries most affected by it, given the geography and overlapping interests between Moscow and the West.

Turkey is one of these countries and presented an exceptional model in managing its position on the war based mainly on the approach of balance.

While Ankara opposed the war and continued to deepen its military partnership with Kiev and closed the Black Sea to Russian warships, it refused to participate in Western sanctions against Moscow and sought to play a mediating role between Moscow and Kiev, and sponsored an agreement to export Ukrainian grain, as it deepened its trade and economic relations with Russia. after the war.

As much as the balance approach enabled Ankara to limit the consequences of the war on it and its interests with Russia and the West, it also helped it to maximize its role in the new global energy system, raise its value in global geopolitical competition, and impose new rules for its partnership with the West.

Unlike Turkey and the Gulf, Iran's failure to adopt a similar balanced approach to the conflict created major obstacles for it to get out of its western isolation, although it created opportunities for it to strengthen its position in partnership with Russia.

In conclusion, the transformations brought about by the war in the relations of the active powers in the region with the outside contributed to the reshaping of regional geopolitics.

Given Russia's growing role in the Middle East since its military intervention in Syria in the middle of the last decade, Ukraine's war and Western isolation imposed great challenges on it to maintain its role in the region, especially Syria.

The repercussions of the war on Syria and the regional policies associated with it can be limited to 4 main variables:

While the Russian-Ukrainian war strengthened regional tracks that were already in place in the pre-war period, its profound impact is more evident on Gulf relations with the United States and Iran's relations with the West and Russia.

Finally, as much as the war gave Middle Eastern countries an opportunity to strengthen their role in regional and global geopolitics, it brought other challenges centered on their ability to continue to distance themselves from the growing global competition between major powers, and to reduce the risks of escalating regional unrest in light of the declining chances of reviving The Iranian nuclear agreement and the increasing tension between Israel and Iran.