All localities should make full preparations to help college graduates start their own businesses, formulate policies and measures that are conducive to college graduates' entrepreneurship and employment, continuously optimize resource allocation, improve the business environment, and improve supporting facilities such as venture capital funds, venture capital funds, and guarantee funds. Policies have created good conditions for college graduates to start their own businesses and get employed.
At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the skills training of various types of re-employment personnel. Trade unions, women's federations, Communist Youth Leagues, relevant social institutions, and public welfare organizations must strengthen service guarantees in promoting re-employment, promote an overall increase in employment rates, and effectively reduce unemployment rates.
The number of college graduates nationwide in 2023 is expected to reach 11.58 million, a year-on-year increase of 820,000.
Seven departments, including the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, jointly launched the "National Employment Action" to promote employment, focusing on releasing high-quality jobs for key groups such as the 2023 regular college graduates and the 2022 unemployed graduates who have left school.
After the number of college graduates exceeded 10 million for the first time in 2022, this year is another employment year for college graduates exceeding 10 million.
Moreover, this year is expected to be 820,000 more than last year. The 820,000 must not be underestimated. For the job market that is already under pressure, it will generate greater pressure than normal.
In addition, under the impact of the epidemic, there will still be some unemployed graduates who have left school in 2022, which will also bring considerable pressure and challenges to the job market.
This means that in terms of the employment of college graduates, 2023 is a very challenging year, and effective measures must be taken to mobilize and arrange early.
On the one hand, the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies have provided positive conditions for economic recovery and development in various regions. Industries such as business services, catering, accommodation, cultural tourism, and transportation, which were greatly affected by the epidemic, are steadily entering a state of recovery.
For example, the tourism industry has recovered to 90% of that of the same period in 2019 during the Spring Festival, movie box office revenue has also performed well, and the catering industry has fully recovered; the secondary industry will also show a stable recovery after the recovery of the consumer market, which will bring employment opportunities. Positive effect.
On the other hand, the external economic environment is more complicated. The Federal Reserve’s unexpected interest rate hike has led to the rapid return of global capital to the United States, European and American countries have fallen into the quagmire of stagflation, and trade protectionism has become more rampant. Wait.
China's development is facing shrinking external market demand, the environment may continue to deteriorate, uncertainty will rise, and the ability of external demand to stimulate employment will decline.
In short, the employment environment in 2023 will be greatly improved from a domestic perspective, and the employment space will be significantly expanded, while uncertainty will increase from an international perspective.
It is indeed very important and urgent to solve uncertain problems and contradictions with definite principles and methods for this year's employment work, especially the employment of college graduates.
Statistics show that in December 2022, the national surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from November.
Although the unemployment rate is still not low, it is gradually improving. In the face of another year with more than 10 million college graduates, we should be able to find a better solution in the recovering economic growth.
2022 is a very difficult year for employment, and the goal of promoting employment has still been basically completed. Against the background of full economic recovery, we should be more qualified to do a good job in the employment of college graduates this year.
Recently, mainly in view of China's optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies and the introduction of a series of economic stabilization policies, international institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2023: JPMorgan Chase raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year from 4% to 4.3% %, Goldman Sachs raised it from 4.8% to 5.2%, Morgan Stanley raised it to 5.7%, and BlackRock predicted that China's GDP growth may be as high as 6% this year.
According to a survey conducted by Reuters based on interviews with 49 economists, China's economic growth rate may rebound to 4.9% in 2023.
The forecasts of international institutions for China's economic growth this year are mostly around 5%, which is roughly close to the economic growth targets set by various parts of the country for this year.
According to the experience of my country's economic growth in recent years, the economic growth rate set by local governments is mostly relatively "conservative", and the annual realization goals are mostly higher than the goals set at the beginning of the year.
This also means that China's economic growth of more than 5% in 2023 is a high-probability event, and 5% is a goal that can be achieved with considerable confidence.
If the economic growth can be guaranteed to exceed 5% this year, employment will be relatively easy, and employment pressure will be further eased.
It is also worth noting that with the change and progress of employment concepts, more and more young people are not satisfied with passively accepting recruitment, but prefer to take the initiative to accept challenges and start their own businesses in various ways and channels.
All localities should make full preparations to help college graduates start their own businesses, formulate policies and measures that are conducive to college graduates' entrepreneurship and employment, continuously optimize resource allocation, improve the business environment, and improve supporting facilities such as venture capital funds, venture capital funds, and guarantee funds. Policies have created good conditions for college graduates to start their own businesses and get employed.
At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the skills training of various types of re-employment personnel. Trade unions, women's federations, Communist Youth Leagues, relevant social institutions, and public welfare organizations must strengthen service guarantees in promoting re-employment, promote an overall increase in employment rates, and effectively reduce unemployment rates.
Special commentator of Beijing Youth Daily