This year, many countries will witness important legislative and presidential elections, some of which will not only have repercussions for the internal situation of those countries, but will affect the global political scene.

Therefore, it is not an exaggeration to regard the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey this spring as the most important for it and the world.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been ruling the country for two decades, and he was able to win about 10 electoral entitlements in a row, but he now faces the most difficult electoral challenge ever, at a time when opposition parties of all political orientations are uniting to overthrow him.

Under Erdogan's rule, Turkey has become an influential player on the international scene and a rising military and economic power.

In view of its military involvement in a number of conflicts surrounding it, the influential role it plays as a balancing force between Russia and the West in the conflict over Ukraine, and its growing importance in the global energy geography, what the ballot boxes will produce will have profound effects on the interior on the one hand, and on Turkey's regional periphery. And its place in the era of global geopolitical competition on the other hand.

Erdogan led Turkey during the past two decades towards massive transformations that reshaped its identity in most respects, from the political system that transformed it from a parliamentarian to a presidential one and the opposition wants to return it to a parliamentary one, to restoring the conservative identity of society and the state at the expense of secular identity, passing through the economy and the peace process with the Workers’ Party Kurdistan Region before its collapse in 2015, launching negotiations to join the European Union, leading to the adoption of a new concept of national security based on transforming Turkey into a stand-alone military force, expanding its external military role, developing the concept of vital space and strategic depth by adopting the doctrine of the Blue Homeland and restoring historical ties. With the Turkic world in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Therefore, this election will not be a test of Erdogan's ability to stay in power as much as it will decide whether Turkey will reshape its identity away from Erdogan's legacy.

Given the importance of political stability during Erdogan's rule in building the Turkish economic renaissance and maximizing Turkey's external role, what requires most attention in this spring's elections is the future of this stability.

While Erdogan is still able to sustain this stability, the performance of the opposition coalition so far does not show that he is capable of achieving political stability if he comes to power.

The opposition presented a broad project to return to the parliamentary system, but it is still unable to agree on a joint presidential candidate to compete with Erdogan.

And the discussions about how she will run the country also show that she will be less adept at managing power than is the case in opposing it.

Any possible shift in Turkey's balanced position between Moscow and the West under the rule of the opposition will lead to a threat to its vital interests with Russia, and this threat will not be limited to the immediate areas of the relationship such as the economy and energy, but will also affect the geopolitical interests in the common spheres of influence.

The importance of maintaining political stability lies not only in avoiding the country entering a scenario of political chaos that will have long-term consequences for the political system and the economic situation that is undergoing major transformations, but also in avoiding a dangerous vacuum in Turkey's external role.

Strength within generates strength outside.

Unfortunately, fateful elections of this kind come at a moment of great global transformations that do not leave Turkey the luxury of slipping into internal chaos.

Over the course of two decades, Erdogan has transformed Turkey into an influential player in regional and international foreign policy.

The Turkish president succeeded in the policy of balance that he pursues in the Russian-Ukrainian war, in establishing Turkey's neutrality between Russia and the West, and in reducing the repercussions of the conflict on its interests with Moscow and the West.

Turkey also has a military presence in northern Syria that not only works to achieve the concept of national security for it, but also guarantees it an influential role in determining the future of its southern neighbor.

It also has a geopolitical partnership with Russia to manage their interests in more than one region on the basis of competitive cooperation.

Meanwhile, Turkey's strong presence in the eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and Africa enabled it to transform it into a competing force for influence with regional and international powers.

The continuation of this role will depend to a large extent on the results of this year's elections.

At a time when the opposition does not present a practical and clear vision of how to conduct foreign policy after Erdogan, its anticipated preoccupation with reshaping Turkey's internal identity will limit its ability to better deal with external challenges.

These challenges are represented in three main areas: how to deal with Turkey's military role abroad, how to formulate its relations with its regional environment, as well as how to formulate new relations with the East and West.

Dealing with the issue of military roles abroad is more complex than in political discourse.

As for Syria, for example, the opposition promises an immediate restoration of relations with Damascus and the deportation of Syrian refugees to their country, but it is still not clear how it will deal with the future of the Turkish military presence in this country.

Considering that this presence is dictated by the security factor represented by the obsession with the Kurdish separatist project, it will be difficult for the opposition to ignore this factor in its conciliatory rhetoric with Damascus.

Although Erdogan preempted the elections by making a turning point in the relationship with Damascus, he still clings to the military presence as a card of strength to achieve Turkey's security interests and guarantee its interests in the future of Syria.

The absence of a clear vision for the opposition in its policy towards Syria may lead to a weakening of Turkey's role.

At the level of regional relations, Erdogan seemed to have partially succeeded in ending the differences with some prominent regional powers, but this was not at the expense of the Turkish presence in the region.

A possible decline in the Turkish role in the region under the rule of the opposition will deeply affect Turkey's interests in its regional environment.

The biggest challenge facing Turkey after the elections is how to approach the relationship between Russia and the West.

The close working relationship Erdogan has forged with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, has led to geopolitical cooperation between the two countries, while causing a downturn in Turkey's relations with the West.

It seems that Putin prefers that Erdogan retain power, because the possibility of the opposition's victory will restore Western influence on Turkey's foreign policies, especially in its relationship with Moscow.

The opposition will want to maintain a balance between Russia and the West, but its ability to confront Western pressure will be limited in light of its need for Western support after it comes to power.

However, a possible shift in Turkey's balanced position between Moscow and the West under the rule of the opposition will threaten its vital interests with Russia, and this threat will not be limited to the direct areas of the relationship such as the economy and energy, but will also affect geopolitical interests in the common spheres of influence.

Unlike Russia, Westerners hope that this spring's elections will end two decades of Erdogan's rule and weaken Turkey's tendency to be independent in its foreign policy from the West.

Finally, as much as this election is of unprecedented importance to Turkey, it is also to the world.