Despite the approaching date of the presidential (and parliamentary) elections scheduled for next June, and despite the almost inevitability of early May 14, the opposition "six-party table" has not yet announced its presidential candidate;
While the hexagonal table says that the delay is an intended tactic, many attribute it to the differences between the heads of the parties affiliated with it.
Hexagonal table
The Turkish Grand National Assembly (Parliament) approved the idea of electoral alliances between political parties ahead of the 2018 elections, in which the ruling “Public Alliance” consisting of the Justice and Development, Nationalist Movement and Grand Union parties faced the opposition, and the opposition “Nation Alliance” consisting of the Republican People's, Good and Happiness parties and democrat.
These last four parties met on the idea of returning the country to the parliamentary system and opposing Erdogan, and later joined by the two parties that defected from Justice and Development and were founded by two former leaders in it: Future headed by Ahmet Davutoglu, and Democracy and Progress headed by Ali Babacan.
Behind the scenes in Ankara, everyone is talking about the scenario of early elections, as if it is inevitable, in order to ensure the widest possible participation and the best opportunity for justice and development, and President Erdogan
With the approaching date of the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections and in light of the declining economic conditions specifically with the Corona pandemic, as well as with the relative decline in the popularity of Erdogan and his party, the six parties began consultative meetings to arrange their papers for the next election, due to differences and differences between them and other factors as well, these parties did not call themselves an "alliance". Rather, it chose the name "the six-party table", which refers to greater consultation and coordination and implies equality between the parties.
For this specific meaning, the six-party table is circular without a chairperson or leader, and its periodic meetings were organized according to the alphabetical order of their names, ending before the end of last year its first session of 6 rounds of dialogue, and starting a new session, which reached its tenth meeting recently.
In the statement it issued after the last meeting, the six-party table said that it had agreed on the transitional phase and the government program related to the mechanism and how to move from the presidential system to the parliamentary system if it won, and that it would announce them before the end of January.
The statement indicated that they agreed to "start consultations regarding the consensus candidate for the presidential elections."
Although the six parties did not reach an agreement on the name of their consensus candidate, they sparked controversy with statements made by some of their leaders - especially Davutoglu - about how to run the state between the potential candidate - if he wins - and the parties of the six-party table.
But the most controversial and controversial issue remained the intra-disputes that surfaced recently, especially after the court ruling against the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, where a state of competition and perhaps bickering emerged regarding the candidacy issue between the latter and the head of his party (Republican People) Kemal Kilicdaroglu on the one hand. , and between the Republican People and the Good (the two largest parties around the opposition table) on the other.
Rather, the disputes and bickering went beyond the two people and the two parties to the other parties. Babacan said that he is a "suitable candidate and able to win" in the elections if he was nominated by the six-party table. It was also understood from Davutoglu's statements that they were a veiled warning to the major parties in the six-party table that the small parties - including them - should not be ignored. His party- in the future.
Behind the scenes in Ankara, everyone is talking about the scenario of early elections, as if it is inevitable, in order to ensure the widest possible participation and the best opportunity for justice and development and President Erdogan, and the latter alluded to the date of May 14 without officially announcing it.
And because he is the one who will make the early decision in light of the opposition’s prevention, this leaves it with an opportunity of only two months from the moment Erdogan announced the early decision, to choose its candidate, announce it and start his electoral campaign, which is a relatively short period that requires the six-party table to reach its selection as soon as possible before the president is made. Turkish decision.
What scenarios are available in front of the hexagonal table?
When we talk about the opposition candidate, we mainly mean the candidate of the six-party table. Otherwise, some other opposition parties will present their own candidates, including the Peoples' Democratic Party, which announced that it is in the process of doing so, and other small parties, especially those that splintered from large parties.
In light of the previous data, and the insistence of the head of the Republican People’s Party - the largest opposition party - on his candidacy, and the presence of opposition among the most important pillars of the table for that, the latter appears to have several possible scenarios in the near future:
The first scenario is the conviction of the opposition leader, Kilicdaroglu, not to run for himself
and to present another candidate, such as the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, or Ankara’s Mansur Yavas, under the weight of the opposition of his allied parties, led by the Good Party, or influenced by opinion polls that show that he is weaker in the face of Erdogan than personalities. Others, or under the pressure of other parties, such as currents within his party or others.
The second scenario is for the opposition leader to ensure the support of his partners in the six-party table for his candidacy
, either out of conviction, or the strength of his voting base, or by satisfying them through promises or guarantees related to the post-election period, if he wins.
In this context and according to this scenario, Davutoglu's statements came about the continuation of the six-party table after the elections, and the failure of the next president - if the opposition candidate - to conclude strategic decisions without the approval of the party heads.
The closest formula - according to this scenario - may be Kilicdaroglu's candidacy for the presidency, with a prior announcement of the positions of the heads of the other five parties as vice presidents and ministers.
The third scenario is the agreement of the six-party table on one candidate, but from outside the six parties
, and here we are faced with two sub-options: Either the nomination of a strong and well-known political figure, such as former President Abdullah Gul, and the support of all parties for him, which is what small parties, especially conservative ones, can favor. While the Republican people will not want it, or the candidacy of a non-partisan figure without a great political ambition (Low profile), so that it remains relatively subject to the six-party table if it wins.
The fourth scenario is represented by the inability of the six-party table to agree on a single candidate before the election date
, and therefore we are facing more than one candidate from it. Rather, each party may decide to present its own candidate, so that the opposition runs the elections with several candidates from inside and outside the table, with the aim of achieving a state of saturation. to vote, ensure high participation, and deprive Erdogan of some votes.
According to this scenario, the possibility of resorting to a run-off will be relatively enhanced, and therefore these parties will have postponed discussion, negotiation and conclusion of deals between themselves, and with other opposition parties, until before the run-off, despite the risk that is not hidden from the eye of the politician.
In view of the recent political controversy in the country and the statements of the heads of the six parties and their prominent leaders, it seems that the second scenario is more likely than the others, that is, that the head of the Republican People's Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, insists on running for himself with the support of the other five parties under the six-party table.
It is followed, in the second place, by the fourth scenario, represented by presenting several candidates and waiting for the run-off - in case it takes place - to secure the support of the rest of the parties for whoever gets the highest votes among the opposition candidates.
And in the third place in terms of likely scenarios, comes the option of nominating a person from outside the table, and then finally the option of the opposition leader retracting his candidacy and presenting one of the mayors for the presidency.
It is worth noting that these scenarios assume that the hexagonal table will remain active and functioning, with minimal coordination among its components, which is the expected context.
However, there is a fifth possibility, which is represented in the inability of the six parties to agree, to close the table, and to present several candidates from these parties, but completely separately, including the scenario of nominating personalities from outside the table, but in the name of some of these parties and not the table itself, and in the forefront of the possible names is the president. The former Abdullah Gul.
However, this option remains weak chances at the present time, as these parties realize that their chances are almost non-existent if they are dispersed and their voices are dispersed.
This is in terms of possible scenarios before the opposition six-party table, and which one is more likely and why.
As for the chances of winning according to each scenario, there is no room for it in the article, and it may be a topic for a future article.