Turkey.. The Peoples' Democratic Party and the calculations of the upcoming elections

The opposition Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) in Turkey announced that it is in the process of presenting a candidate for the upcoming presidential elections.

Given that it is the largest remaining party outside the two main electoral alliances, this statement shuffled the cards with regard to the upcoming elections' balances, alliances, and expected results to a large extent.

constitutional situation

The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) is the latest political manifestation of the Kurdish political movement linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is on the Turkish terrorist lists.

The party was founded in 2012 with the merger of several left-wing political parties and others that adopt Kurdish nationalism, in addition to a number of community organizations and initiatives, among others.

The Democratic Peoples presented itself as a "party for all of Turkey", in a clear difference in the narrative from the "Kurdish" parties that preceded it, and achieved a big surprise in its first elections in June 2015 by obtaining 13.1% of the vote and 80 seats in the Turkish Grand National Assembly (parliament). consisting of 550 seats, then fell to 10.7% and 59 seats in the November 2015 run-off elections.

The estrangement deepened further between the Justice and Development Party and the Peoples’ Democratic Party after the failed coup attempt in 2016, when the former allied with the National Movement Party, which was reflected in the ruling party’s rhetoric and policies.

In the 2018 elections, the party won 11.7% of the vote and 67 seats in Parliament (out of 600 seats after the constitutional amendment), making it the third largest party in Parliament after the ruling Justice and Development, and the Republican People, the largest opposition party.

Until 2015, the party was part of the settlement between the Turkish government and the PKK, but the latter's retreat from it and its resumption of its military action in July 2015 ended that process, and the relationship between the democratic peoples and the Justice and Development (and the government) aggravated.

Since that time, the Democratic People's Party has been widely seen as a political front for the PKK or as a political party affiliated with it, especially by the Justice and Development Party, which for many years has avoided communication or any relationship with it to a large extent.

The background of a good number of party leaders and members helped establish this situation, in addition to the statements of some of them in support of Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK, or its Syrian extension, the Democratic Union Party, in addition to the trial of mayors from the party on charges related to supporting terrorism and harnessing the capabilities of municipalities for workers. Kurdistan.

The estrangement deepened further between the Justice and Development Party and the Peoples’ Democratic Party after the failed coup attempt in 2016, when the former allied with the National Movement Party, which was reflected in the ruling party’s rhetoric and policies.

Therefore, he remained in a state of estrangement from the democratic peoples until a high-ranking delegation visited him recently to persuade him to support a draft constitutional amendment regarding women's freedom of dress and veil.

Last year, the Republican Attorney General filed a lawsuit against the HDP to ban it and prevent 687 of its members, including its leaders, from practicing politics on charges of "aiming to harm and destroy the unity of the nation and the people."

A few days ago, and at the request of the Public Prosecutor, the Supreme Constitutional Court decided to freeze the party's share of state treasury support on the grounds that it could be used to support terrorism, and the party will have to present its defense against this decision within a period of one month, before the court issues its final decision on it.

Political and electoral messages

On January 7, the co-chair of Democratic Peoples, Pervin Buldan, announced that her party is "running into the elections with its own candidate," after the party had expressed in a document it published last November its "openness to identifying a unified consensual candidate for the opposition." .

This approach was confirmed by the other co-chair of the party, Medhat Sanjar, denying that his party's decision was merely a political maneuver, without closing the door on the possibility of talking to the "six-party table" on the matter.

The party is certainly aware that its candidate does not have ample opportunity to win the upcoming elections, and therefore its main motive for announcing the candidacy, or to be more precise, waving the idea of ​​candidacy, is not the ballot box, but other gains on its sidelines and political messages to several parties.

The first of these motives is to enhance its chances as a party in the parliamentary elections coinciding with the presidential elections, because the presence of a presidential candidate for the party strengthens its electoral campaign and benefits it in many ways, and this is typical for small and newly formed parties in general.

The party is also keen to prove the meaning of its presence and strength in the political and electoral arena, specifically with the case filed to ban it, as well as to prove its "constitutionality" as an existing and present political party under the dome of Parliament.

These are general motives and indications specific to the party, but the most important are the contextual reasons, especially the political messages envisaged by the declaration, especially since it remained outside the two main alliances, especially the opposition "six-party table".

Therefore, a few months ago, he formed a third coalition that brought together a number of left-wing parties under the name of the "Coalition of Labor and Freedom."

The first message the party sent to the ruling Justice and Development Party, in clear reservations about the latter's handling of the issue of the ban and the decision to freeze its share of treasury support, especially since it had recently met with a high official delegation, as previously mentioned.

Among the indications of this meaning is that the democratic peoples refused to meet with the Justice and Development Party again to discuss the same issue a few days ago.

The second message, and perhaps the most important one, was addressed to the six-party opposition, which has so far clearly avoided meeting and cooperating with the party, despite its desperate need for its voting base.

This is due, on the one hand, to the good position of the (right-wing nationalist) party towards the Democratic Peoples, which is the second largest party of the six-party table and has a great influence in it, and on the other hand to avoid criticism of the ruling public coalition, which will focus on the idea of ​​combating terrorism and the lack of credibility of the six-party table regarding it.

It is noteworthy that the Turkish president repeatedly repeats that the Democratic Peoples is an unannounced member of the "six-party table", which he calls the "six + one table".

One of the evidences of this message is that the co-chair of the party, Medhat Sinjar, did not completely close the door to the possibility of meeting the six-party table. He confirmed that his party is not maneuvering on the issue of the presidential candidate, but "if the six-party table tells us, after announcing the candidates, let's run a negotiation process, we will not refuse."

All of the above does not mean that the issue of presenting a candidate in the name of the party independent of the rest of the parties has been irreversibly resolved, because the step is directly intended to announce the presence and disclosure of the electoral force, in an effort to negotiate with the various parties.

It is a negotiation that may begin now about the name of the consensual candidate - who will represent everyone here, including the democratic peoples - and his program and positions, while it is more likely that the party will run in the presidential elections with its own candidate, and obtain as many votes as it can (opinion polls indicate the possibility of winning 7- 11%, through which he can negotiate a run-off in the presidential elections, which many thought would happen.

Finally, although it is likely that the Peoples’ Democratic Party will seek to negotiate with the “six-party table” opposing its main disagreement with Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party and its political and ideological rapprochement with the Republican people mainly, the issue of its negotiation with the Justice and Development is a possibility that remains, albeit weak. Elections are very fluid and subject to major transformations.

All of this is a discussion within the framework of the party continuing to operate as one of the official parliamentary parties. But if a judicial decision was issued against it before the election date, then the options before it will be different and very narrow, including running as independent personalities or nominating a number of personalities on other party lists.

However, in any case, the party's mere wave of a paper presenting a candidate for the elections has increased the political and electoral scene in the country in hotness and dynamism.