Expectations of a decline in the prices of energy, food, fertilizers and minerals during the current year

Data of the Food and Agriculture Organization indicated that the food price index rose during the past year by 14.3%, which is its highest rate during the past 15 years, as a result of the growth of the sub-indicators included in it, most notably the price index for dairy products, which increased by 19.6%, the highest rate since 1990. And the grain price index, which increased by 17.9%, the highest in 15 years, as a result of the rise in corn prices by 24.8%, wheat by 15.6%, and rice by 2.9%.

The edible oil price index increased by 13.9%, the highest rate in 15 years, the meat price index increased by 10.4%, the highest since 1990, while the sugar price index increased by 4.8%, the highest in 9 years.

World Bank data showed that the majority of commodity prices rose during the past year, including energy, agricultural products and fertilizers, while the prices of minerals - whether basic or precious -, wood and rubber, declined.

Within the energy group, Brent crude increased by 42%, from $70 a barrel to $100. The rest of the oil prices, whether American crude, increased by 39%, and Dubai crude by about 41%. The natural gas price index increased by 154%, including the rise in European gas by 154%. 150% due to the European embargo on Russian energy.

Record highs in fertilizer prices

American natural gas increased by 66% with an increase in international demand to compensate for part of the Russian gas, and Japanese liquefied gas by 70%. The price of Australian coal increased by 150%, and South African coal by about 143%.

Thus, Brent crude recorded its highest price last year since 2013, and the price of a barrel ranged during the months of the year between $80.9, the lowest price in December, and $120.1, the highest price in June, which prompted the US administration to seek to increase production OPEC countries after the embarrassment caused by the rise in the price of gasoline in the United States to President Biden and his Democratic Party ahead of the midterm elections for Congress, during which he lost the presidency of the House of Representatives.

The high prices of fertilizers affected the rise in the cost of agricultural production after the European measures towards Russian fertilizers, as the price of a ton of potassium chloride increased by 147%, phosphate rock by 116%, urea fertilizer by 45%, triple superphosphate by 33%, and ammonia diphosphate by 28.5%.

Within the group of edible oils, the majority tended to rise, except for a very slight decline in coconut oil, so that soybean oil increased by about 20%, palm oil by 13%, and peanut oil by 6%.

Within the meat group, beef increased by 7%, goat meat by 3%, and poultry by 48%. The price of oranges and bananas also increased.

In the group of basic metals, nickel increased by 40% to 25,834 dollars per ton, the highest price since 14 years ago, and zinc increased by 16%, and aluminum by 9% to 2,705 dollars per ton, which is a record price that has never happened before historically.

While the prices of iron ore fell by 25% to $121 per ton, copper by 5% to $8,822 per ton, tin by 3%, and lead, down by 2%.

As for precious metals, gold increased from $1,800 an ounce to $1,801, with a growth of only one per thousand. However, during the year gold achieved an unprecedented historical average price, and during the months of the year October witnessed the lowest price by about $1,664.5. per ounce, while March witnessed the highest price by about one thousand and 948 dollars. As for the price of silver, it decreased by 13.5% during the year, to reach $21.8 per ounce.

Expect higher prices for timber and rubber

Hopes remain that the price hikes will recede during the current year, which caused high inflation rates in most countries of the world, and the raising of interest rates by most central banks, which resulted in many demonstrations and strikes by multiple labor unions.

This is confirmed by the World Bank's expectations of a decline in energy prices by 11% during the current year, basic metals by 15%, agricultural products by 5%, food by 6%, edible oils by 8%, and tobacco by 2%.

On the other hand, the World Bank expected an increase in wood prices by 8%, rubber by 6%, and coconut oil by 1%.

Within the energy group, the World Bank expected the price of a barrel of Brent oil to reach $92, compared to $100 it reached last year, as well as a decrease in the price of natural gas in Europe from $40.3 per million British thermal units to $32, and a decline in American gas from $6.4 per million British thermal units to 6.2. dollars, and liquefied gas in Japan from $18.3 per million British thermal units to $17.

The International Monetary Fund had expected the average price of a barrel of oil, which represents the average of the three types of oils (Brent, American and Dubai), to reach $85.5, compared to $97 it reached last year.

These expectations are related to global growth rates, which both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank expected to decline from last year's growth rates, the number of countries that will suffer recession, the developments of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the relationship between Russia and the European Union countries, the extent of the cohesion of the "OPEC Plus" alliance, and the possibility of discharging Russia. For its oil and gas away from the price ceilings imposed on it by Western and European countries, the Chinese growth rates and the extent of the spread of the Corona virus in it.

Expectations of a decrease in wheat and corn prices

Within the cereals group, the World Bank expected a decline in the price of maize by 9% from 319 to 290 dollars, and this was reinforced by what the Food and Agriculture Organization indicated that the cultivated areas of maize in Brazil had reached a record level, supported by remunerative local prices and favorable weather conditions at the beginning of the season, as well as climatic conditions. The favorable conditions in South Africa and its neighboring countries, which supported the early growth of the crop, in addition to the organization's expectation of a contraction in the use of maize as fodder and in industrial use.

The World Bank expected a decline in US hard wheat by 5% from 430 to 410 dollars per ton, and expected a decrease in the price of poultry meat by 7.5%, beef by 2%, and sugar by 5%, and a decline in palm oil by 18%, soybean oil by 8%, and soybeans by 4%. , due to its impact on livestock prices, as corn and soybeans constitute the largest component in the feed industry.

Fertilizer prices are expected to decline by 26% for phosphate rock, 12% for triple superphosphate, 10% for urea, 5% for diammonium phosphate, and 4% for potassium chloride, but the decline rates are much lower than the growth rates that occurred during the past year.

In the basic metals group, it is expected that the price of raw iron will decrease by 17%, aluminum by 11%, and copper by 5%, and lead and tin will decrease by a lesser percentage. The price of an ounce of gold is expected to reach $1,700, compared to $1,801 last year, with a decline of 6%, and a decline in silver by 6%. 4%.