Against the pension reform, is it back like in 19?

• The eight main French unions are calling for a strike on January 19 to challenge the pension reform unveiled by the government last Tuesday.

• Many sectors and professions have announced that they are following this call for a strike which will be long-lasting, according to union officials.

• But to what extent is French society ready to mobilize?

  Will the challenge be as popular as in 2019?

  Elements of answers with a historian of social movements, a sociologist and a SUD-Rail manager.

2019 already seems a long way off.

A pandemic, the war in Ukraine, a presidential campaign, etc.

Many significant events overshadowed this nevertheless memorable strike of the end of 2019-beginning of 2020 during which the SNCF and the RATP broke their records for consecutive strike days with 53 days and 49 days respectively.

Already at the time, it was a pension reform wanted by Emmanuel Macron which had angered many sectors.

The new pension reform, led by Elisabeth Borne, again generates a broad dispute.

All of the eight main unions - and even the CFDT - unite for a first day of action on Thursday 19 January.

A movement that wants to be “powerful”, according to the transport unions, and registered “in the long term”.

It has already been joined by the civil service, oil, energy (gas and electricity).

So should we expect a blockage of the country like in 2019?

Impossible to predict, but one thing is certain: the society, the political situation, the climate are "very different and the concerns are located differently", notes Michel Wieviorka, sociologist, director of studies at the Ecole de Hautes Etudes en social sciences (EHESS), interviewed by

.

A subject of great mobilization

1995, 2003, 2010, 2014, 2019… These years have one thing in common: they were the scene of large-scale social movements against pension reforms or attempted pension reforms.

This is a sensitive subject in France and particularly mobilizing for employees.

For Fabien Dumas, federal secretary at SUD-Rail, interviewed by

, these uprisings can be explained by the fact that "people need to project themselves but that each time, they do not see the end of it because we keep modifying access to their rights".

And citizens feel concerned.

It affects them directly.

“They know exactly, with the age of departure, what it will cost them, everyone can know what will happen to them”, abounds Michel Wieviorka.

Indeed, there have been almost thirty years of claims since Alain Juppé's failed attempt.

This year again, the fight promises to be massive, despite the predictions of Olivier Véran.

Even if it is impossible to predict the follow-up to the strike movement, the duration in which it will extend, "in all likelihood, the mobilization should be significant" because this reform presented by Elisabeth Borne "is a double penalty", judge at

, Stéphane Sirot, historian specializing in trade unions and social movements.

Unlike previous projects, this one touches on two delicate points: the retirement age and the duration of contributions.

In this sense, "it is a socially harsher reform", continues the historian.

Especially since the unions had warned the government: not touch the age of departure, then identified as the “red line”, underlines Michel Wieviorka.

"From the moment it is crossed, it is not possible not to react," he adds.

The importance of the form of movement

Regarding the extent of the challenge, everything will depend on the form that the movement will take.

If the unions, including those of the rail transport, wish to register it in the long term, specific days of action will be less effective than a renewable strike from day to day.

"The choice of the methods of action will pose a difficulty, the unions will not necessarily all be on the same position and the inter-union may also find itself constrained by feedback from the field, nothing has been said about the way in which the mobilization will to be long-term", emphasizes Stéphane Sirot.

On the side of SUD-Rail, the renewable strike is in any case not excluded, according to Fabien Dumas.

“We are going to increase in power, we do not forbid ourselves anything and I think that it will end in a renewable strike”, assures the trade unionist.

Indeed, for the historian,

"one-off days of action no longer have any real effect on governments" while "whatever happens, they are forced to react to a repeatable movement".

In 2019, the government had also been pushed to make concessions on its points reform project.

The duration of the movement will also be an important element.

But with the tacit agreement between the government and Les Républicains (LR) to vote for the reform, the timetable could accelerate.

"When things are going very quickly, it's never easy for a mobilization", notes Michel Wieviorka.

According to the analysis of Stéphane Sirot, “the fact of having found this agreement with LR is also part of the government's strategy in order to accelerate the timetable.

“And the risk is that once the bill is passed, “the movement ends”, concedes Fabien Dumas.

A transformed society

Since 2019, the health crisis, the war in Ukraine, inflation have been there but also three years of Macron's five-year term.

Thus, the societal, economic and political landscapes have changed.

With the health crisis, a new fact has to be taken into account: the democratization of teleworking.

A long transport strike could have less impact on the country's economy.

"Telework is still the absolute anti-strike weapon", reassures a Renaissance leader.

Nevertheless, many professions remain dependent on travel, whether it is transport or the car.

And if the refineries join a repeatable movement, the effect of the strike could well be felt throughout the country.

our file on the pension reform

But the main question is whether society really wants to mobilize.

For Michel Wieviorka, "the French are tired, the concerns are located differently and this was seen in the attempt to resume a movement of" yellow vests ".

However, a more general fed up could arise from these actions against the pension reform, especially if the subject of wages is invited into the fight.

In general, the dilapidation of public services, hospitals, justice, education, transport, which represent the republican model, worries the French.

Especially since the anger of 2019 is not extinguished, it has just been overshadowed by the coronavirus.

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