Recently, most of my country has continued to be warmer, especially in the northeast and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

However, the first cold wave of this year is about to hit, and it is expected to affect most parts of our country from west to east and from north to south from January 11.

How fierce is the temperature drop in this cold wave?

Where will the strongest rain and snow cores appear?

Will there be persistent low temperature, rain, snow and freezing weather?

What kind of impact will it have on the Spring Festival travel traffic?

  How fierce is the first cold wave?

  The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that from the 11th to the 15th, due to the influence of strong cold air, there will be cold waves in most parts of my country. After the cooling, the overall warmer pattern in my country will be reversed.

Among them, from the 11th to the 12th, Xinjiang, Gansu, and Qinghai will drop in temperature by 6-12°C, northern Xinjiang and western Gansu will have a temperature of 14-18°C, and northern Altay, Xinjiang will exceed 20°C, accompanied by 4-6 winds, and the wind force in the mountain pass can be strong. Up to level 8 to 10; there are sand or floating dust in parts of eastern and southern Xinjiang, Hexi Gansu, western Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia, and there are local sandstorms.

  From the night of the 12th to the 15th, as the cold air moves eastward and southward, most of the central and eastern regions will experience a temperature drop of 6-12°C, and Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, eastern Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, Guizhou and other places will drop by 14-18°C Parts of the central and eastern regions, central and eastern Heilongjiang and other places exceeded 20°C, accompanied by winds of magnitude 4 to 5, and gusts of magnitude 6 to 8.

From the daytime of the 13th to the daytime of the 18th, the Bohai Sea, the Bohai Strait, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the ocean to the east of Taiwan, the Bashi Channel, most of the South China Sea, the Qiongzhou Strait, and the Beibu Gulf will successively have magnitudes 7-9 and gusts of 10-11 level of wind.

  After the temperature dropped, on the morning of the 17th, the lowest temperature line of 0°C was located from eastern Yunnan to southern Guizhou, southern Jiangxi, northern Fujian, and eastern Zhejiang, and the -10°C line was located in northern and western Hebei, southern Shanxi, and southern Shaanxi.

  Where is the strongest rain and snow core?

  As the cold air gradually moves eastward and southward and merges with the warm and humid air flow, it will bring large-scale rain and snow to the central and eastern regions.

Among them, from the 11th to the 12th, there were light to moderate snowfalls in most of Xinjiang, and heavy to heavy snowfalls along the Tianshan Mountains and the western part of the Southern Xinjiang Basin.

From the 12th to the 15th, Shaanxi, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, the eastern part of Southwest China, Jianghuai, Jianghan, and northern Jiangnan have light to moderate rain to light to moderate snow or sleet, southern Shaanxi, most of Shanxi, There are heavy snowfalls and local blizzards in parts of western Hebei, western Henan, western Hubei, and northern Chongqing; the new snow accumulation in snowfall areas is generally 1 to 3 cm, 5 to 8 cm in some areas, and up to 10 cm locally.

On the 15th, there were freezing rain in the southern Anhui mountainous area of ​​Anhui, the western Hunan mountainous area, and the eastern part of Guizhou.

  From the 11th to the 15th, there were light to moderate rains in the central and southern parts of Jiangnan and southern China. There were heavy rains in parts of northern Jiangxi, western Zhejiang, central and southern Anhui, and central and southern Jiangsu. The cumulative rainfall was 10 to 10. 30 mm, 50-90 mm in northern Jiangxi and parts of western Zhejiang, and 100-130 mm locally; from the 12th to the 14th, there will be thunder and lightning weather in Jianghuai, Jiangnan, and South China.

  In addition, in the process of cold air going south, as the temperature gradually drops, there may be a change in the phase of rain and snow in many places.

It is estimated that at 08:00 on the 13th, the dividing line of rain and snow will be located from the south of Gansu to the north of North China, and the south of Heilongjiang River; at 08:00 on the 14th, it will be located in the south of North China and the south of Shaanxi; , located in the south of Guizhou and the north-central part of Jiangnan.

  03

  Will there be persistent low temperature, rain, snow and freezing weather?

  It is expected that from January 16 to 31, most of the central and eastern regions of my country will enter a stage of low precipitation, and there will be no persistent low-temperature rain, snow and freezing weather similar to that in 2008.

In the meantime, the temperature in the northern region fluctuates frequently, and there will be a strong cold air process from the 19th to the 21st; the temperature in the southern region will continue to show a low trend.

  04

  Will there be foggy weather?

  From the night to the morning of the 11th to the 14th, there was heavy fog in the southern Sichuan Basin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, northern Zhejiang, and northern Hainan Island, and local visibility was less than 200 meters.

From the night of the 11th to the morning of the 13th, there will be rain and fog with visibility less than 1 km in the coastal waters of southeastern Shandong, coastal waters of Jiangsu, waters near the Yangtze River Estuary, northern coastal waters of Zhejiang, western Yellow Sea, and northwestern East China Sea.

From the night of the 13th to the daytime of the 15th, there will be heavy fog with visibility less than 1 km in the Qiongzhou Strait, the Beibu Gulf, the coastal waters of the Leizhou Peninsula, and the coastal waters of western Guangdong.

  05

  What kind of impact will it have on the Spring Festival travel traffic?

  In early January, the temperature in the central and eastern regions of my country was 2-4 ℃ higher, and the local temperature was more than 4 ℃ higher. The temperature of 43 weather stations in 14 provinces across the country exceeded the extreme value in January.

After this process, the temperature in the central and eastern regions will change from the previous significantly high to low, and the rainy, snowy and windy weather will be beneficial to clearing the haze in the Huanghuai and other places in North China and increasing soil moisture in the winter wheat region.

  However, during the Spring Festival travel season, attention should be paid to the adverse effects on transportation, energy supply, sanitation and epidemic prevention, facility agriculture, urban operation, etc. during the Spring Festival travel season, especially the adverse effects of multiple disastrous weather superpositions.

  The first is to prevent the impact of snowfall, rain, fog, wind and dust on the traffic during the Spring Festival travel.

The central and eastern regions pay attention to the adverse effects of rain, snow, fog, sand, dust, strong winds and other high-impact weather on wet and slippery roads, snow and ice, wind blowing snow, and low visibility on land and water transportation, railways, and aviation. Strengthen the safety management of Spring Festival transportation; Anhui, Hunan, Guizhou and other localities also need to prevent the impact of freezing rain on transportation, communication and power facilities.

  The second is to pay attention to the impact of severe cooling on energy supply and health and epidemic prevention.

After this cold air, the temperature in the central and eastern regions will change from the previous significantly high to low, and the drastic cooling will suddenly increase the demand for energy. Pay attention to the impact on the supply of energy such as water, electricity, heating, etc., and do a good job in energy scheduling and maintenance of pipeline facilities in advance Work.

At the same time, pay attention to the impact of severe cooling on human health, and do a good job in health emergency and epidemic prevention.

  The third is to pay attention to the prevention of windy weather hazards in the eastern sea area.

Affected by the cold air, the wind in the eastern sea area of ​​my country is strong, and the risk of maritime navigation is high. Navigation ships, operating platforms, ports, and offshore aquaculture should pay attention to preventing the hazards of strong winds.

All parts of the north should do a good job of windproof reinforcement for simple facilities, high-altitude suspended objects, and facility agriculture, and at the same time pay attention to the adverse effects on outdoor operations.

  Fourth, northern Xinjiang pays attention to the superimposed impact of high-impact weather.

Snowfall continued in northern Xinjiang in early January. From the 11th to the 12th, there will be severe cooling and strong winds and snowfall in Xinjiang. This will overlap with the continuous snowfall in the previous period, which is not good for animal husbandry production. We must strengthen prevention and pay attention to transportation, facility agriculture, energy supply, etc. adverse effects.