Nearly 6 months after they were held, the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections are still filling the world and people's concerns in Turkey, including the many opinion polls that indicated a significant decline in the popularity of both the Turkish president and the Justice and Development Party months ago, to return and show their improvement recently.

The hardest election

There is a general consensus regarding the importance of the upcoming elections in Turkey, and many agree that they may be the most difficult for the Justice and Development Party since its founding in 2001 and its assumption of power in Turkey in November 2002.

They are elections that come after more than 20 continuous years of monopoly rule in the country, and the first after the implementation of the presidential system in 2018, and in light of a system of alliances that brought together a number of large opposition parties against justice and development, including parties that emerged from the womb of the ruling party itself and created an unprecedented challenge. for him.

It is also an entitlement that comes in light of declining economic conditions for internal reasons related to the structure of the economy itself and external ones affected by the Corona pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war and other global and regional developments, in addition to the transformation of the issue of refugees and foreigners in the country into a file of electoral rivalries that worked for many months in the interest of justice and development.

The Turkish government, led by Erdogan, took several steps, the summary of which is to reduce government collection from citizens and increase government spending in return, especially towards the vulnerable segments.

For these and other reasons, opinion polls have shown a decline in the popularity of Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party from the results of the previous elections. Opinion polls in Turkey, although not accurate in their detailed expectations, are suitable for reference in their general contexts, especially those that most opinion poll companies agree on.

One of these general contexts was the decline in the popularity of the president and his party, with expectations of the need for a run-off in the presidential elections due to Erdogan's inability to obtain more than half of the votes, unlike what happened in the previous elections.

What has changed?

In the interpretation of this variable, several factors stand out, the first and most important of which is related to the economic file, especially in terms of its impact on the daily lives of citizens. Before every electoral election, the current government seeks packages of support called in Turkey the “election economy”, but what the government provided this time seemed exceptional. In terms of size and pace, sensing that the economy is its soft side in the upcoming elections, the strongest card in the hands of the opposition, and perhaps the most important criterion for the voter in the next elections.

Accordingly, the Turkish government, led by Erdogan, took several steps in this regard, a summary of which is to reduce government collection from citizens and increase government spending in return, especially towards the weaker segments. Large government-supported housing, support for some agricultural products, and facilitating loans for everyone, but the most important step was raising the minimum wage twice, at a record rate last year, with the aim of mitigating the impact of price increases on citizens / voters, and it is expected to raise it again by an acceptable rate at the beginning of the new year. .

On the other hand, the government has issued several decisions towards scheduling debts for debtors who are unable to pay them, and has worked with some municipalities to pay or postpone the collection of some bills from those who are unable, as well as clearing some debts or payments owed by some citizens. In conclusion, the government submitted a letter To the citizen that she has not and will not leave him prey to the declining economic conditions, and that she is making every effort to alleviate and support him in this regard.

In addition to all this, the government's main bet is on its ability to curb inflation before the elections. Therefore, the messages and statements of President Erdogan and Minister of Finance and Treasury Noureddine Nabatai focused on the fact that the first months of next year will witness a significant decrease in the inflation rate as a major indicator of the success of the model. Erdogan's economic policy, despite the harsh criticism he was subjected to.

As for the second reason, it is some of the foreign policy achievements that the AKP and President Erdogan have marketed internally, foremost among them the roles played by Turkey on the sidelines of the Russian-Ukrainian war, from political mediation to the grain export agreement to the prisoner exchange agreement to hosting a meeting between the US and Russian intelligence agencies to proposing Turkey as a center for the export of Russian gas to Europe, and so on.

It is important to recall that opinion polls in Turkey are not accurate in predicting results, but are only suitable for recourse to their general contexts that most companies working in this field agree on.

Third, there are the opposition’s ongoing disagreements recently, especially with regard to choosing a consensual candidate for the table of the six opposition parties, as the head of the Republican People’s Party (the largest opposition party) Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is still insisting on his candidacy, and the Good Party (the second opposition party) is still in opposition. Therefore, he does not see him as the most appropriate candidate to compete with Erdogan, let alone defeat him.

In addition to the above, the issue of refugees and foreigners - especially Syrians - has recently decreased in intensity in the media and social media, and it was a pressure file on the government, which resorted to several decisions within the policy of "reducing the concentration of foreigners" in the neighborhoods of major cities.

Decisive factors

Once again, it is important to recall that opinion polls in Turkey are not accurate in predicting results, but are only suitable for recourse to their general contexts that most companies working in this field agree upon, and the importance of this observation increases due to the relatively long period of time until the elections, in addition to the unclear map Finalists for electoral alliances and presidential candidates.

Therefore, when we talk about the improvement in the chances of the Turkish president and the ruling party in opinion polls, we present this as a general context in most opinion polls first, and as a relative improvement second, and compared to previous months for the same opinion poll companies third, which gives the matter credibility to an acceptable degree.

Accordingly, this trend is subject to continuation, cessation, or regression until the date of the elections, depending on 3 main factors:

  • The first: the economic file, including government policies, minimum wages, high prices, the value of the lira, the energy file, and any convincing programs for the opposition in this context... etc. in the last weeks before the elections, i.e. the circumstance in which they will be held.

  • The second: the electoral map, as it is not clear until now the final form of the electoral parties’ alliances nor the names of the candidates for the presidential elections, which are among the most important factors that will determine the results of the upcoming elections in light of the inability of any of the parties and candidates to obtain 50% of the votes according to current expectations. .

  • Third: Surprises, and what is meant is any unexpected developments or outside calculations at the present time, but they may have an impact on the voters’ orientations and votes, such as a military operation in northern Syria or the escalation of tension with Greece, which fuels national feelings, or the release of information and files regarding candidates for the presidential elections, which is what It can affect their image, their fortunes, etc.

In conclusion, the results of recent opinion polls confirm that ideology, party affiliations, and political and intellectual alignments are not sufficient to decide or even predict the results of the upcoming elections in Turkey, and that there are other factors affecting the formation of voters' opinions and their assessment of the ruling party and the opposition, and thus their vote in the next election.

This means, among other things, that the recent results of opinion polls are not decisive or final in favor of either party, and that the opinions of voters are subject to change and alteration in both directions as the election date approaches, based on several factors.

Also, the aforementioned factors are not objective data or external conditions imposed on the country, but rather they are mostly orientations and decisions in the hands of the two parties to the political equation in the country, especially the ruling party led by Erdogan, and therefore an important part of forming the opinions of voters is in their hands to one degree or another, and the period remains The time period until the elections (6 months from now, in principle, if not early) is too long to be certain of something in a country that describes one day in its political developments as “very long.”