Rise in Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations.

With the drop in temperatures and a new variant, the virus is talking about itself again, almost three years after the start of the pandemic, reigniting fears for those most at risk.

What is the health situation?

The Covid-19 epidemic, which experienced a brief lull in France after a wave in early autumn, is starting up again.

On Friday, 48,629 new cases were recorded, compared to 33,177 new cases the previous Friday, an increase of 46%.

The current rebound is already reflected in an "upward recovery in new hospitalizations and admissions to critical care", after "four weeks of decline", observes Public Health France in its last weekly update.

More than 4,500 hospitalizations have been recorded over the past seven days.

“The famous R, the reproduction rate of Covid-19, has been greater than 1 for several days, which means that the incidence of the number of cases is increasing, indicates Pascal Crépey, epidemiologist at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes de Santé Publique. .

It is not very surprising because this period of the year is the most favorable to virus transmissions.

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Can we speak of a ninth wave?

“We are on a high plateau”, judged Monday Brigitte Autran, the president of Covars (the body which succeeded the Scientific Council), refusing to decide for the moment between “rebound” or “new wave”.

But for some experts, no doubt: "A ninth wave is forming in France and more generally in Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America," says epidemiologist Antoine Flahault.

A wave "moved in France by the BQ.1.1 sub-variant of Omicron, responsible for the recent increase in contaminations but also hospitalizations", according to him.

BQ.1.1 is gradually replacing BA.5.

"This new wave reminds us: the epidemic has not disappeared, the virus still kills and strikes again", launched Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne this Tuesday at the National Assembly, a "solemn appeal" to wear the mask in the transports.

What scenario for the future?

It has always been difficult to predict the evolution of the pandemic.

Once again, it is "complicated to predict what will happen", notes Pascal Crépey.

In France, "if we base ourselves on previous years, we can expect the curve to continue to rise and that the Christmas holidays offer a first respite", thanks to the school holidays, according to him.

Among the unknowns, is the BQ1.1 sub-variant, which could become the majority, more or less transmissible or resistant to antibodies from vaccination or from a previous infection?

Are we better armed than before?

Without a doubt.

Eight first waves have brought some immunity to the population, which is also widely vaccinated but is late for the second boosters.

Treatments have proven their effectiveness, in particular Paxlovid, from the Pfizer laboratory, an antiviral which makes it possible to prevent the evolution towards serious forms.

But it needs to be prescribed more to those at risk.

“The situation is more favorable than three years ago, but paradoxically more complex, believes Pascal Crépey.

Because we do not measure well today the level of immunity of the population and that there are more variants circulating.

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What are the risks ?

Among 60-79 year olds, only 37% are considered protected by vaccination or a previous infection;

among those aged 80 and over, 21%, according to the Ministry of Health and Prevention.

"The levels of vaccinations are not sufficient today," the ministry said on Tuesday during a press briefing.

“There are three weeks of mobilization left before Christmas, it is now that it is played”, he launched.

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In addition, this recovery risks hitting an already struggling health system.

The hospital is indeed tested by an epidemic of bronchiolitis of an unprecedented scale, while the seasonal flu, which is looming, raises fears of the impact of a “tripledemia”.

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Covid-19: After a brief lull, the coronavirus epidemic is starting again in France

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